Dr. Bishara Bahbah: Israeli threats against Iran are unrealistic and may ignite a broad regional conflict

Dr. Kholoud Al-Obaidi: Galant's statements are a threat to expand the scope of the war and a message to the world, including Russia

Muhammad Al-Halsah: Israel adopts a new strategy based on trying to break its opponents with excess force

Wadih Awawdeh: Military escalation with Iran to lure America in the hope of success that will engineer the memory of the Israelis

Dr. Ramzi Odeh: The strike will be strong, comprehensive and fast, and I do not think it will include nuclear or oil facilities.

During his visit to an Israeli air base the day before yesterday, the Minister of the Occupation Army, Yoav Galant, made statements that carried a clear threat to launch a strong strike against Iran. Addressing the pilots and technical crews at the Hatzor Air Base, which specializes in operating drones, defensive missiles, and air patrols, he said: “Everyone will realize our strength after we attack Iran, and everyone will understand what you did in the preparation and training process.”

In separate interviews with “I”, writers and political analysts considered these statements to be an explicit threat of Israel’s intention to launch a strong and comprehensive strike against Iran, as soon as possible, and that Israel is trying to expand the scope of the war and drag the United States into a direct confrontation. Other analysts considered that these statements do not represent a real threat, and that Israel will not be able to deal with Iran as it dealt with Gaza or Lebanon.

Regarding the objectives of the expected strike on Iran, a number of analysts who met with “I” expected that Israel would target Iranian nuclear and oil facilities, while warning at the same time of the possibility that Iran would respond in that case by targeting oil facilities in neighboring Arab countries, which could ignite a large-scale regional conflict that could lead to a third world war.

Israel will not be able to deal with Iran like Gaza or Lebanon

Dr. Bishara Bahbah, a specialist in American and Middle Eastern affairs and former deputy director of the Middle East Institute at Harvard University, told “Y”: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant continues his threats against Iran with the aim of deterring it from providing support to its allied forces in the ongoing war with Israel, considering that these statements do not constitute a real threat.

Bahbah pointed out that Israel will not be able to deal with Iran as it dealt with Gaza or Lebanon.

He added: Iran has strong strategic depth, thanks to the mountains and tunnels, in addition to its military capabilities, which makes its response to any Israeli attack completely different.

However, he pointed out that Israel seeks to strike Iranian nuclear facilities and oil fields, and there may be an intention to target Iranian leaders as well.

Dr. Bahbah warned that any Israeli attack on Iran could prompt Iran to target oil facilities in neighboring Arab countries, which could ignite a large-scale regional conflict that could lead to World War III.

Biden administration will not allow Israeli attack before elections

He pointed out that the Biden administration will not allow Israel to launch an attack on Iran, especially in light of the current US electoral climate, explaining at the same time that the Biden administration does not want any military confrontations to break out before the US elections, because the rise in oil prices in the United States may lead to a decline in support for Vice President Kamala Harris in the electoral race.

In contrast, Bahbah said that former President Donald Trump repeatedly stressed that he does not prefer any war to take place in the Middle East, even if it was against Iran.

Bahbah also pointed out that the US elections play a decisive role in the current scene, noting that support for Harris has declined in some states, such as Michigan, which has a strong Arab presence sympathetic to the Lebanese people.

Relive the Cold War

Dr. Kholoud Al-Obaidi, a specialist in political science and international law, considered the statements of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant, in which he said: “The world will know Israel’s strength after it strikes Iran,” to be a clear threat to expand the scope of the war.

Al-Obaidi pointed out that Galant is not addressing Iran alone, but is directing his message to the world, including Russia, stressing that this approach returns the atmosphere to the Cold War period and deterrence based on military force.

Al-Obaidi explained to “I” that “deterrence in this context is not limited to the nuclear program, or the threat of using nuclear weapons, but extends to an arms race that includes advanced missiles, defense systems, and intelligence technologies.”

US concerns over Iran-Russia military cooperation

She stressed that the United States and Israel are increasingly concerned about military cooperation between Iran and Russia, especially in the exchange of military technology.

Al-Obaidi also pointed out that there are reports indicating that Russia has provided Iran with advanced ballistic weapons and air defense systems, while Iran has provided Russia with drones that were used to strike Ukrainian sites, which enhances military cooperation between the two countries, and this cooperation may develop into an integrated defense partnership.

Al-Obaidi stated that "Israel has lost much of the credibility of its military superiority since the events of October 7, 2023, and that the operations it has recently carried out can be classified as intelligence successes rather than military ones. Therefore, the threat issued by Galant indicates Israel's intention to carry out a direct military operation."

The expected strike will rely mainly on air power.

She also pointed out that Galant's statements came during his visit to a military air base, which reinforces the idea that the expected strike will rely mainly on air power, and may include the use of missiles to hit targets inside Iran. Despite the passage of a year since the war, Israel is still unable to decide it definitively.

She pointed out that Galant's statement came after his meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, as both of them represent two regimes facing major challenges.

Al-Obaidi considered that Blinken's visit to Israel came to support the Democratic Party in the United States of America, which is facing difficult elections, wondering about the nature of the requests that Blinken presented to Galant, suggesting that the main goal was to reassure the American voter about the expected strike against Iran, to ensure reassurance to the American voter of the ability of Washington's allies in the Middle East and Europe, with the aim of influencing the results of the upcoming US presidential elections in the swing states.

A new Israeli strategy after October 7

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Political analyst Muhammad Al-Halsa explains to “I” that Israel, which previously focused on managing security challenges with its opponents, is now moving towards trying to resolve these challenges by breaking its opponents using the surplus firepower, technology and intelligence it possesses.

Al-Halsa added: Israel believes that this new approach, based on the use of brute force, will enable it to restore its prestige and deterrence capacity that was shaken after the events of October 7.

He pointed out that before those events, Israel relied on a policy of "deterrence by prevention", which is based on frightening its opponents of the consequences of attacking it, but this principle was severely damaged after the recent events.

Al-Halsa explained that Israel is currently seeking to enhance the image of its deterrence capability through the logic of destructive force, with the aim of sending a clear message to its opponents that any future attack on it will be met with dire consequences.

Competition between political and military leaders in Israel

In light of its inability to achieve a clear military solution with what it calls "Iran's allies," Al-Halsa indicated that Israel may resort to striking the head - Iran - in the hope that this will lead to the retreat of its allies in Palestine and Lebanon.

Al-Halsa pointed out that Galant's statements also reflect competition between the political and military leadership in Israel, and an attempt to reassure Israeli society that the state is still capable of deterrence, despite the ongoing challenges on various fronts.

Netanyahu escalates with Iran to lure America into direct confrontation

Israeli affairs expert Wadih Awawdeh told Al-Monitor: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to escalate the crisis with Iran with the aim of luring the United States into a direct military confrontation.

Awawdeh explained that Netanyahu is relying on increasing tension with Iran to achieve internal political gains as well, in light of the escalating competition between him and his Minister of Defense, Yoav Galant, over who will appear as the most decisive and powerful leader in the face of Iranian threats.

Publishing photos of damage to Netanyahu's home to mobilize against Iran

He considered that Israel's permission to publish photos of damage to Netanyahu's home in Caesarea is part of the justification and mobilization of international legitimacy to target Iran, pointing out that Netanyahu wants to exploit the current tension with Iran by launching a major military strike targeting Iranian nuclear or economic facilities, in order to lure the United States into participating in the escalation. By striking Iran, Netanyahu hopes to catch more than one bird; an attempt to seize a valuable strategic catch that will relieve Israel of an external threat that he has always warned about, and at the same time enable him to re-engineer the memory and awareness of Israelis.

Awawdeh said that this step comes at a critical time, as the administration of US President Joe Biden faces internal challenges as the presidential elections approach, and any major escalation in the Middle East could negatively affect the position of Vice President Kamala Harris in the elections, especially if it leads to a rise in oil prices.

Netanyahu's quest to bolster his personal political standing

Awawdeh stressed that “Netanyahu seeks to exploit this crisis to strengthen his personal political position, in light of the widespread criticism he has been subjected to after the surprise attack carried out by the Palestinian resistance on October 7. Despite his tactical successes in Lebanon, Gaza and assassinations, opinion polls indicate that his popularity is still declining, and that he faces major challenges that may prevent him from forming a future government if early elections are held or even on schedule in 2026.”

Awawdeh added: Netanyahu realizes that the popular anger in Israel towards him as a result of the intelligence and strategic failure in dealing with the October 7 attack will not go away easily, and therefore he needs to achieve a "major victory" against Iran to improve his domestic position.

Netanyahu and Trump's desire to escalate with Iran

He pointed out that there is a common desire between Netanyahu and former US President Donald Trump to escalate the situation with Iran, as this step serves Trump's interests, who seeks to weaken the position of the Democrats in the upcoming elections.

Despite the attempts of the current US administration led by Biden to calm the situation and prevent escalation, Awawdeh believes that Netanyahu is determined to implement his plan, believing that this may be the last opportunity to achieve a "historic victory" and restore his declining popularity.

A strong blow to maintain the Israeli deterrence image

Dr. Ramzi Odeh, Secretary-General of the International Academic Campaign Against Occupation and Apartheid, confirmed to “Haaretz” that Galant’s statements about the expected response to Iran indicate Israel’s intention to carry out a strong strike to maintain the image of deterrence that Israel has worked to build for decades.

However, Awda pointed out that this image has deteriorated significantly after the events of October 7, which makes Galant's statements should be taken seriously.

Awda added that the expected Israeli response will be comprehensive and rapid, by striking dozens of Iranian military sites in a short period of time. He explained that the strike may include several areas in the Iranian capital, Tehran, and may include airdrops by special commando forces to target sensitive sites.

Although Galant's statements were strong and strict, Awda indicated that the Israeli strike is not expected to include any nuclear sites or oil facilities.

He attributed this to the danger of targeting such sites on regional security, and the major repercussions that could result, affecting the entire region.