The New York Times said that the two-state solution is still the goal of the United States and the West, but many in the region say that the destruction in Gaza and the lack of effective Palestinian leadership make this a distant possibility.

The newspaper says: "The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has raised hopes in the Biden administration that this will help pave the way for the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state."

But in many ways the goal of an independent Palestinian state seems further away than ever. In Gaza, there has been death and destruction on a devastating scale. Clear and solid Palestinian leadership is lacking. Israel is struggling with its own trauma over the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023.

President Biden hopes that Sinwar’s death will lead to a temporary ceasefire in Gaza and the return of the Israeli hostages, while producing a path toward negotiations on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel — the so-called two-state solution. But it is unclear who can speak for Hamas now in Gaza, or even whether the group really knows where all the hostages are or how many are still alive, the newspaper reported.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to continue the war against Hamas while pursuing another war against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Beirut, as well as to exact revenge on Iran. Since October 7, he has repeatedly ruled out the possibility of a two-state solution, and the stability of his coalition government depends on far-right ministers who oppose a Palestinian state of any kind.

“All of this makes the possibility of Israel agreeing to serious negotiations on a Palestinian state extremely unlikely,” says Mukhaimer Abu Saada, a Gaza-based scholar and visiting professor at Northwestern University, according to the newspaper.

“Netanyahu has said several times recently that a Palestinian state would endanger Israel’s security,” Abu Saada said. “With the extremist part of Israel now in power, it is not on their agenda.”

The Oslo Accords of the 1990s, the peace framework for resolving the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, were supposed to lead to an independent Palestinian state. The Palestinian Authority created under the accords was supposed to be an interim body exercising limited Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. But Hamas ousted it from Gaza in 2007, and it now controls only part of the West Bank, and is viewed by Palestinians as corrupt and ineffective.

“In recent years, amid cycles of violence, hopes for a two-state solution have receded. After October 7 and the devastating Israeli response in Gaza, the United States and Europe, as well as some countries in the Middle East, have returned to pressing the issue as the best way to achieve a sustainable and secure peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Saudi Arabia, for example, insists that any recognition of Israel depends on a credible path to a viable and independent Palestinian state,” the newspaper said.

But even if Netanyahu decides to change his policy, analysts say a fragmented and weak Palestinian leadership will pose a serious obstacle to progress on the issue.

Any agreement would require broad Palestinian leadership, including Hamas’s buy-in, to champion and support the idea, said Mouin Rabbani, a non-resident fellow at the Doha-based Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies. “But the Palestinian Authority has largely lost whatever legitimacy it might have had. I expect Hamas to now adopt a more extreme line.”

Rabbani added to the newspaper that the insistence of the United States and European countries to continue to push for a two-state solution ignored this vacuum in Palestinian leadership and the extremist impact of the war in Gaza on Palestinian politics.

"The two-state solution is a fig leaf that allows the United States and Europe to pretend they are serious about resolving the issue without acknowledging the changes in the reality on the ground that contradict the possibility of achieving this goal," Rabbani said.

Complicating matters is the rapid growth of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, as well as the intensive Israeli raids on the territory in the wake of the October 7 attack.