Muhammad Hawash: Sinwar's martyrdom will not fundamentally affect the course of the war in Gaza or the structure of Hamas

Sari Samour: Sinwar's potential successor is likely to be from Gaza, whether residing abroad or inside the Strip

Dr. Qusay Hamed: Israel continues its war, and Sinwar’s martyrdom may return the movement’s political decision abroad

Firas Yaghi: The resistance ideology within Hamas will be strengthened, and whoever believes that moderate leaders will come after Sinwar is mistaken

Adnan Al-Sabah: It is not in Hamas' interest to announce a successor to Sinwar at the present time, given the current situation

The death of Hamas political bureau chief Yahya Sinwar in combat on the battlefield last Wednesday raises the possibility that this could affect the war in the Gaza Strip and the possibility of a prisoner exchange deal between Israel and Hamas.

In separate interviews with “I,” writers, political analysts, and university professors believe that his martyrdom will not have a fundamental impact on the course of the war on Gaza, nor will it shake Hamas’s position on the exchange deal.

They believe that Sinwar's martyrdom will not weaken Hamas, but they point out that the next leadership of the Hamas political bureau may return to the outside, as it was in the past, and this may reflect changes in the movement's internal balances and future orientations in light of the nature of the stage, indicating that the repercussions of Sinwar's martyrdom may strengthen the resistance ideology, especially within Hamas, as he has become a model for future leaders, which makes the continuation of the resistance a certainty.

Sinwar's martyrdom while fighting confirms the falsity of the occupation's narrative

Writer and political analyst Muhammad Hawash believes that “the Israeli narrative that portrayed the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, in a negative light, indicating that he was hiding in tunnels, was refuted by the emergence of the truth of his martyrdom while fighting on the battlefield. The truth that emerged after his martyrdom revealed the falsity of the Israeli narrative, as it turned out that Sinwar was a fighter on the ground, and not hiding as Israel claimed.”

According to Hawash, "Although the exact details of how Sinwar was martyred are still unconfirmed, the information based on the occupation's narrative, which has been modified several times, has proven the lies of the Israeli attempts to distort his image."

He points out that the occupation was seeking to promote the image of the Palestinian as a terrorist, but the martyrdom of Sinwar and his pictures that showed his struggle on the battlefield confirmed that the Palestinian is a resister against the occupation, and this clearly refutes the Israeli propaganda, and reaffirms that resistance is a right for the Palestinians against the occupation.

Regarding the impact of Sinwar’s martyrdom on the course of the battle in the Gaza Strip, Hawash asserts that his absence will not have a fundamental impact on the course of the war in Gaza or on the structure of the Hamas movement. The battle has turned into an individual resistance that is spreading throughout all areas of the Gaza Strip, and is no longer limited to a central leadership as it was at the beginning of the war. Therefore, the absence of any leader will not significantly change the course of the war, despite the moral impact that his martyrdom may have.

As for Hamas, Hawash believes that Sinwar’s martyrdom will not affect its continuity or organizational structure. The movement has witnessed numerous assassinations of its leaders over the years, and these assassinations did not lead to weakening the movement. On the contrary, they always led to the emergence of new leaders who would lead the movement in various fields. In addition, the previous assassinations did not achieve Israel’s declared goals in this war, and will not lead to a real impact on the movement’s structure.

Hawash touched on the issue of the future leadership of Hamas, noting that the movement's Shura Council, which consists of broad sectors inside and outside Palestine, will discuss the issue of appointing a new leadership after Sinwar's martyrdom.

Hamas's leadership shifts abroad

Although the Gaza Strip had a great influence in the movement’s leadership during the past ten years, Hawash believes that the results of the battle may lead to this influence being transferred outside the Strip, especially since the next stage may require a leader from abroad, not a field military commander.

As for the balances within Hamas, Hawash explains that the movement, as a multi-spectrum political movement, includes differences of opinion, especially with regard to external alliances. While there are leaders who seek to distance themselves from the Iranian axis and prefer to adopt a balanced position between Iran and the Arab countries, the movement’s military wing is more inclined towards an alliance with Iran. However, these differences are resolved within the framework of the Shura Council, where the movement’s strategy is agreed upon collectively.

The Israelis are the ones who reject the deal.

Regarding the prisoner exchange deal, Hawash believes that the Israelis, specifically Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, are the ones who refuse to conclude the deal, not Hamas.

Hawash asserts that Sinwar's absence will not lead to a change in the terms of the deal, as Hamas is adhering to the terms that were previously agreed upon, the red lines of which Sinwar set before his martyrdom. This was confirmed by the deputy head of the Hamas political bureau, Khalil al-Hayya, in his statements following the announcement of Sinwar's martyrdom, which indicates that the movement will not back down from its previous positions regarding the exchange deal.

Israel continues its insistence on genocide in Gaza

Writer, political analyst and follower of Palestinian political parties, Sari Samour, points out that the Gaza holocaust is still ongoing, whether before or after the martyrdom of the head of the Hamas political bureau, Yahya Sinwar.

Samour confirms that Israel is continuing its insistence on exterminating the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, despite expectations that Sinwar's martyrdom might be a prelude to a ceasefire.

Samour explains that Sinwar's martyrdom while he was in a direct clash with the enemy proves that he is a rare figure in the history of the Palestinian resistance, and even in the history of global revolutions. Sinwar, due to his position and age, could have avoided participating in field confrontations, but he preferred to be in the front lines, which reflects his dedication and inspiration to many.

Samour considers Sinwar to be an exceptional man and a miracle in every sense of the word, pointing out that after his release from the Israeli occupation prisons after 23 years, he could have chosen a quiet life either in Gaza or to leave the Gaza Strip without anyone blaming him, but he preferred to stay in the field, proving that his actions reflect his words and that he was honest and sincere in his orientations.

Differences in visions within Israeli circles

Samour talks about the perceptions that emerged immediately after the announcement of Sinwar’s martyrdom, regarding the conclusion of a prisoner exchange deal, as some expected that this event might accelerate the conclusion of a prisoner exchange deal between Hamas and Israel, noting that some voices in the United States and Europe supported this idea, while some Israeli officials also raised it.

However, Samour explains that the Israeli aggression has not stopped, which indicates a difference in visions within Israeli circles. While some see the need to stop the war, others believe that continuing military operations achieves tangible achievements.

Samour touches on an important point related to the Israeli army leaking pictures of Sinwar before the official announcement of his martyrdom, suggesting that this leak may have been deliberate by the army to speed things up towards concluding a prisoner exchange deal.

Regarding Sinwar's potential successor, Samour believes that the next leader will likely be from the Gaza Strip, whether residing abroad, like Khalil al-Hayya, or from within the Strip, like Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar's brother.

Despite Sinwar's martyrdom, Samour asserts that the impact of Sinwar's martyrdom on Hamas is not significant, given that the movement relies on institutions and a solid organizational structure, which ensures its continuity, despite the loss of its leaders in the field.

Sinwar's martyrdom does not mean the end of the war or the beginning of peace in Gaza

Dr. Qusay Hamed, Professor of Political Science at Al-Quds Open University, believes that the martyrdom of Yahya Sinwar, head of the political bureau of Hamas, will not lead to major changes in the Gaza Strip in the near term.

Hamed explains that Israel is continuing its comprehensive war that aims to impose a new reality on the Strip, and that the martyrdom of Sinwar does not mean the end of the war or the beginning of peace in Gaza, as the war continues.

Regarding the impact of Sinwar’s martyrdom on the Hamas movement, Hamed believes that his absence is a major blow to the movement, especially considering his position as one of the leaders who combined political and military power. Sinwar is considered one of the historical leaders and the most influential in the movement, whether at the level of decision-making in the Gaza Strip or at the level of Hamas’s organizational structure.

According to Hamed, Sinwar was an exceptional figure within the movement, which makes replacing him very difficult in the near future.

But on the other hand, Hamed points out that Hamas has organizational mechanisms that allow it to continuously reproduce leadership. Since its founding, the movement has become accustomed to dealing with the martyrdom or assassination of its leaders, and it always prepares alternative leaders from the field to assume responsibility.

However, Hamed believes that replacing a figure of Sinwar's weight and value in the near future will be difficult, given his great influence on the movement.

On the other hand, Hamed points out that Sinwar's martyrdom may return the leadership of the movement's political bureau to the outside, as his selection as the movement's leader from within was an exception to the rule that Hamas has followed since the establishment of its political bureau, where the leadership of the political bureau has always been based abroad.

Hamed believes that Sinwar's absence may bring back this tradition, pointing out that Ismail Haniyeh, who led the movement inside the country for a period, later went abroad, specifically to Qatar, which made it easier for him to manage affairs from abroad.

Regarding Sinwar's role in the last battle, Hamed explains that his martyrdom during a field clash indicates the extent of his personal involvement in leading daily operations.

Hamed points out that Sinwar was not only the mastermind behind the first “Al-Aqsa Flood” strike, but he was also directly managing the field operations and supervising their minute details. This commitment to field participation reflects Sinwar’s commitment to military action, and makes his martyrdom while engaged in the field unsurprising given his history as a field commander before being a political or military leader.

Sinwar's martyrdom will not speed up the completion of the deal

Regarding the impact of Sinwar's martyrdom on the prisoner exchange deal, Hamed believes that Sinwar's martyrdom will not speed up the completion of the deal, but may lead to Hamas clinging to its terms.

He points out that Sinwar was not an obstacle to completing the deal, but on the contrary, he was seeking to complete it under specific conditions set by the movement.

The real problem, according to Hamed, lies in Netanyahu's refusal to conclude the deal except according to limited Israeli conditions, most notably the release of Israeli soldiers held in Gaza without meeting Hamas's remaining conditions.

Hamed believes that Sinwar’s martyrdom may strengthen Hamas’s adherence to its demands, whether in loyalty to Sinwar or to the sacrifices made by the people of the Gaza Strip. This adherence to the conditions may be a response to Israel’s attempt to impose a new reality in the Strip, as Netanyahu wants to release the Israeli detainees without making concessions to the conditions set by Hamas: the occupation’s complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the return of the displaced, the reconstruction of Gaza, and the release of prisoners.

The possibility of a prominent figure abroad taking over the leadership of the movement

As for Sinwar's successor in leading Hamas, Hamed believes that replacing Sinwar with a figure of equal weight and influence will be difficult.

Hamed believes that Hamas may move to appoint a new head of the political bureau from among its members outside Palestine, and may not announce the name of his successor publicly due to the ongoing Israeli targeting.

Hamed points to the possibility that a prominent figure abroad, such as Khaled Meshaal or Khalil al-Hayya, will assume the presidency of the movement's political bureau.

Hamed believes that Sinwar's martyrdom will not lead to the end of Hamas or its military wing, stressing that the movement still has a strong organizational structure and leaders ready to take over leadership and continue fighting, given its long history of Israeli targeting.

A heavy burden on whoever will succeed Sinwar

Writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi believes that the martyrdom of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the "Al-Aqsa Flood", while he was on the front lines of the battlefield, will place a great burden on whoever succeeds him in leading the Hamas movement.

Yaghi explains that Sinwar's martyrdom in the field is a model and example for every new leader, which means that the resistance will continue, and that the next leader must be on the battlefield as well, as Sinwar has become an icon of the Palestinian resistance, and no other leader can ignore this symbolism.

Yaghi links the martyrdom of Sinwar to the period following the martyrdom of the late President Yasser Arafat (Abu Ammar), who set red lines for the concept of peace, whereby the understandings or positions that preceded it cannot be crossed.

Yaghi points out that Sinwar's martyrdom does not only affect Gaza or the Hamas movement, but leaves a profound impact on the Palestinian interior as a whole, as it represents a continuation of the ideology of resistance against the occupation, and a message that the conflict with Israel is long and draining.

Yaghi believes that Sinwar came with the "Al-Aqsa Flood" battle to return the conflict to its roots, as he confirms that the occupation is the basis of the issue, and that resisting it is an inevitable duty.

He discusses the possible scenarios for Hamas leadership after Sinwar's martyrdom, noting that the movement may choose not to publicly announce his successor, and rely on a collective leadership to avoid targeting elected leaders by the occupation.

But Yaghi confirms that the repercussions of Sinwar's martyrdom will strengthen the resistance ideology within Hamas, and that whoever believes that moderate leaders will come after him is mistaken, because the battle has gone beyond the borders of Gaza and Hamas, and has become regional, encompassing the entire region.

Yaghi believes that Sinwar's martyrdom in the Tel Sultan area, which the Israeli occupation army has controlled for about four months, shows the nature of his humble personality and his understanding of his role as a leader.

According to Yaghi, Sinwar could have hidden in a safe place, but he chose to be with his soldiers in the field, defending the cause on the ground.

Yaghi explains that Sinwar's presence on the battlefield sends a strong message that the war is open and everyone must participate in it, from the commander to the soldier.

Yaghi points out that Sinwar's martyrdom came to refute all the Israeli incitement against the resistance leaders, claiming that they hide and do not participate in the battles. On the contrary, Sinwar advanced the ranks and was in areas of Israeli control, far from civilians, which refuted the occupation's false narrative on a global level, and Israeli propaganda is being attacked.

Yaghi points out that Sinwar's martyrdom may greatly complicate any attempts to resolve the prisoner exchange deal, as Hamas will adhere to Sinwar's previous demands and will not give them up.

Netanyahu doesn't seem interested in a ceasefire and a deal

In contrast, Yaghi points out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not seem interested in striking a deal or moving towards a ceasefire, as Netanyahu seeks to continue the war, believing that this gives him an opportunity to strike Iran and deal a fatal blow to the resistance factions in the region, which will enable him to declare his final victory and control the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to achieve his vision of a “new Israel” with greater influence in the region.

Yaghi believes that Netanyahu's calculations are wrong, as the continuation of the battle and the entry of the United States into the arena could lead to a long war of attrition that includes the entire region, not just Gaza. If Netanyahu does not seek to conclude deals or reach settlements, he will lose all the tactical gains that he believes he has achieved so far.

Yaghi points out that Netanyahu will not move towards any political settlement, whether in the south or the north, because he still aspires to achieve his goals by force.

The impact of Sinwar's martyrdom will be positive on Hamas

Writer and political analyst Adnan Al-Sabah believes that the martyrdom of Yahya Sinwar, head of the political bureau of Hamas, despite his importance and symbolism that increased after October 7, will not affect the organizational structure of the movement.

Al-Sabah points out that Hamas relies on an electoral system based on Shura, and has deep and historically organized institutions, which makes it able to continue without any organizational shakeup.

Al-Sabah believes that the impact of Sinwar's martyrdom will be positive on the movement, especially symbolically, as he will continue to be remembered as a leader who was martyred while fighting.

This image, according to Al-Sabah, will remain in the minds of generations, not only today, but throughout history, likening it to the symbolism left by the martyr leader Abdul Qader Al-Husseini, who was martyred as a fighter in the Battle of Qastal.

Al-Sabah confirms that this image will enhance the status of Hamas and its future, both among its bases and among the Palestinian masses in general.

Al-Sabah stresses the importance of the way in which Sinwar was martyred, which came to refute the image that Israel tried to paint of him, as the occupation sought to portray him as a leader hiding in a tunnel and using detainees as human shields, but his martyrdom on the battlefield, participating in the fighting alongside his comrades, completely destroyed this narrative.

Al-Sabah believes that this new image of Sinwar, a leader who participates in daily battles, will remain engraved in the minds of the Palestinian people, and will enhance his status as a popular hero and not just a military leader.

Sinwar's martyrdom is not just a passing event

Al-Sabah believes that Sinwar's martyrdom is not just a passing event, but rather a strong message confirming that the Palestinian resistance, and Hamas in particular, will not retreat from the path of resistance that Sinwar has drawn with his blood.

According to Al-Sabah, the martyrdom of a leader of Sinwar's stature will not be an opportunity for the occupation to achieve its goals, but on the contrary, it will increase the resistance's adherence to its firm positions.

Regarding Sinwar's succession, Al-Sabah believes that it is not in Hamas's interest to announce his successor at this time, given the current situation and difficult circumstances experienced by the Palestinian people, especially the Hamas movement.

Al-Sabah points out that it might be better for the movement to keep the position of the head of the political bureau secret, as Hezbollah did when it did not announce a successor to its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah at critical stages.

Al-Sabah confirms that Hamas at this stage does not need to disclose the alternative leadership, indicating that maintaining secrecy may be in the interest of the movement in light of the ongoing Israeli targeting, noting that it is better for observers and analysts not to enter into the race of speculation about who will succeed Sinwar for fear that they will provide information that serves the Israeli occupation.

Al-Sabah stresses that the martyrdom of Sinwar will not disrupt Hamas's path, but will strengthen its steadfastness and continuity, and increase its adherence to the line drawn by the martyr.