ARAB AND WORLD
Sat 19 Oct 2024 4:40 pm - Jerusalem Time
Blinken Considers Submitting Plan to Manage Gaza After US Elections
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Thursday in response to a question from a Quds.com correspondent regarding news reports that Secretary of State Antony Blinken is preparing to present a “post-Gaza war plan” and that the deadline will be after the elections: “So we have not made any decisions in this regard. We continue to consult with a number of countries in the region.”
“The Secretary has traveled extensively to talk with partners across the region — including Israel, including Arab states — about post-conflict plans for Gaza and how to establish governance, how to rebuild Gaza, how to rebuild people’s neighborhoods, how to provide a political path forward. But those discussions are ongoing.”
Asked by Al-Quds.com about the depth of these consultations, the role of the Israelis, the Emiratis, etc. in presenting some kind of “day after” plan, and whether he had details on that, Miller said, “Our Emirati partners, our Israeli partners, and other countries in the region as well. This has been the subject of a number of trips the minister has made and has been the subject of ongoing diplomatic conversations.”
"I won't speculate from here when we might put forward some kind of proposal, but we are very busy agreeing with our partners in the region on a proposal to provide real security, real governance and a political path forward for the Palestinian people."
Asked by Al-Quds.com whether the Israelis wanted to see a less important role for the Palestinian Authority, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestine Liberation Organization, and whether the US administration would accept that, Miller said, “We have always made clear that one of the principles we are committed to is the unification of the West Bank and Gaza under the control of the Palestinian Authority, where the people of the West Bank and Gaza can choose their leadership, not anyone else.”
The American website "Axios" reported on Wednesday that American officials said that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is studying a post-war plan for Gaza based on ideas developed by Israel and the United Arab Emirates, which will be presented after the presidential elections.
According to the site, many officials in the White House and the State Department are concerned that the plan would marginalize Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his government, which is what Israel and the United Arab Emirates are pushing for in the near term.
But with no deal in sight to release Hamas hostages and establish a ceasefire in Gaza, presenting a “day after” plan “could be a potentially positive part of the Biden administration’s legacy on the conflict,” the site said.
Axios claims to have spoken to a dozen US, Israeli, Palestinian and Emirati officials with knowledge of the issue for this story.
Some in the State Department, including Blinken, believe that a hostage deal and ceasefire do not appear possible before the end of the Biden administration, and so the Israeli-Emirati plan is a potential “Plan B” that could begin to chart a path out of the war, U.S. officials say.
But other officials inside the State Department say it is an unwise idea that serves only the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and is certain to be rejected by the Palestinians, leading to its failure.
The Biden administration, Israel and the UAE have discussed various ideas for potential plans for months, US, Israeli and Emirati officials said.
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair also took part in the discussions and put forward some of the original ideas for the plan, officials said.
Last July, President Biden's Middle East adviser Brett McGurk and State Department adviser Tom Sullivan met in Abu Dhabi with Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, a close associate of Netanyahu, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed to discuss the issue, according to the website.
The day before this meeting, the Emiratis presented their proposal in an op-ed by Bin Zayed’s special envoy, Lana Nusseibeh.
The plan called for the deployment of a temporary international mission to Gaza to provide humanitarian assistance, establish law and order, and lay the foundation for governance.
The Emiratis proposed sending soldiers to Gaza as part of an international force, but made this conditional on receiving a formal invitation from the Palestinian Authority after it had undergone “meaningful reforms and [is headed by] a new prime minister with authority and independence.”
"In practice, the Emiratis wanted to marginalize Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who they say is corrupt and incapable of doing his job, and strip him of any executive authority. They also wanted to replace the current Palestinian Prime Minister, Mohammed Mustafa, whom they consider loyal to Abbas," the website said.
Another principle of the UAE plan was that it would be based on political leaders agreeing on a vision of a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.
The website quotes Israeli officials as saying that Netanyahu liked many parts of the Emirati plan but opposes the most politically charged aspects, especially the Palestinian Authority’s participation in Gaza and the vision of a two-state solution.
"In recent weeks, discussions about the Israeli-Emirati plan have received renewed momentum, officials said," according to the website.
In late September, Dermer met with Abdullah bin Zayed and separately with Blinken, the point man on the Israeli war issue within the Biden administration, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.
Both Abdullah bin Zayed and Dermer asked Blinken to help them bridge the remaining gaps between Israel and the UAE on the plan and then endorse it — or even turn it into a U.S. plan to be presented after the upcoming Nov. 5 elections, the officials said.
There is a remaining gap surrounding a new idea from the Emiratis that the plan includes reopening the US consulate in Jerusalem as a gesture to the Palestinians and a way to show that the US is invested in the plan and leading the process, but the Israelis have strongly rejected this idea, as have the Israelis who oppose any mention of a two-state solution.
But the main gap between Israel and the UAE concerns the precise role of the Palestinian Authority.
Emirati officials said the UAE wants the Palestinian Authority prime minister to appoint a Palestinian figure to help lead the transition in Gaza.
American and Israeli officials said the Israelis would not consider any possible role for the Palestinian Authority in the foreseeable future.
Two senior State Department officials told Axios that if Blinken presents a plan, it will include the ideas of Israel and the UAE as well as those of the United States, with the aim of gaining broader consensus in the region on the plan.
“We will not support the Day After plan without a role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza,” a State Department official told the website. “What that role might look like is still under discussion.”
Axios claims that two US officials told it that the plan has become a highly contentious issue within the State Department, a source of fierce internal fighting and debate among Blinken’s advisers and, in some cases, between the secretary of state himself and some senior US diplomats.
U.S. officials say a key proponent of the Israel-UAE plan is Jamie Rubin, a former adviser to Blinken. Rubin has been working on the Gaza issue for Blinken in recent months and traveled with him to Israel in August, the officials said.
“The White House doesn’t like him and a lot of the people in the State Department who deal with this issue don’t take him seriously, but he has a voice on this issue and he’s close to Blinken,” a US official told Axios.
“Tony [Blinken] is seen as a serious person in the Biden administration and has the president’s attention,” said another US official working on the issue. “The sad thing is that the only person who thinks Jimmy is a serious person is Tony.”
Rubin declined to comment for this story. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller also declined to comment.
The website claims that a senior Palestinian Authority official told Axios that the Palestinian Authority is deeply skeptical of the Israeli-Emirati plan and stressed that he does not believe it can gain support in the region.
"Playing with the rule of Gaza is very dangerous. Any mistake could kill the Palestinian national project," he said, adding that any Palestinian figure who would be in charge of Gaza independently of the Palestinian Authority or not as part of the national consensus would have no legitimacy.
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Blinken Considers Submitting Plan to Manage Gaza After US Elections