Dr. Raed Abu Badawiyya: After October 7, the Europeans have come to believe in the necessity of imposing a two-state solution instead of negotiation

Talal Okal: The summit may issue statements of condemnation and warnings without any substantive decisions or steps that may change the equation of the conflict

Adnan Al-Sabah: The summit is "economic wrapped in politics" but its timing carries important strategic implications

Suleiman Basharat: The summit is to read the future of the Middle East amid growing fears of developments that may occur in the region

Ahmed Zakarneh: The summit carries clear indications of the beginning of a Gulf-European movement outside the scope of American influence

Muhannad Abdul Hamid: The summit may support the Saudi initiative aimed at establishing an international alliance to establish an independent Palestinian state.

The world is awaiting the European-Gulf summit in Brussels today, Wednesday, amid political and diplomatic expectations regarding the possibility of reviving the two-state solution, or taking decisions regarding the recognition of the State of Palestine, in light of the tense circumstances witnessed in the Middle East region.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts and university professors believe that this summit is being held at a time when international relations are witnessing an escalation in efforts to find a just settlement to the Palestinian issue, with a great focus on the role of Europe and the Gulf states in trying to curb the growing escalation in Gaza and Lebanon or the possibility of it extending to Iran and the region.

They see this summit as part of regional and international moves aimed at enhancing recognition of the Palestinian state, with the emergence of European demands for the necessity of imposing the two-state solution on the concerned parties, instead of relying on negotiations that have continued for decades without achieving any significant progress. This comes in conjunction with discussions about organizing an international peace conference in the Middle East, even if it is met with rejection from both the Israeli and Palestinian sides, with the use of diplomatic pressure to impose tangible results.

Despite the hopes associated with the summit, writers, analysts and university professors who spoke to “Y” believe that the possibility of making fundamental changes is still limited, as international efforts face multiple obstacles, although this summit is an important diplomatic step in the efforts to find workable solutions, amid increasing pressure on the international community to take decisive positions regarding the conflict in the Middle East.

European vision for resolving the conflict

Dr. Raed Abu Badawiyeh, Professor of International Law and International Relations at the Arab American University, explains that the Europeans have become convinced that Israel does not want to establish a Palestinian state, noting that there is a European vision for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that has become clearer after October 7.

Abu Badawiya points out that the European position began to crystallize immediately after October 7, as it took two months of discussions for Europe to reach a clear vision that was ready to be announced.

Abu Badawiya explains that a European plan has been under consideration since that time, based on a two-state solution in the Middle East with American approval. This plan includes organizing an international conference in the Middle East, even if the Israelis and Palestinians refuse to participate in it, as the international community intends to use diplomatic and political pressure to impose the results of the conference in a binding manner on the parties.

Abu Badawiya confirms that the formation of the Arab-Islamic Ministerial Committee came within the framework of these efforts, as the committee held several meetings with the European parties, which in turn seek to implement this plan. Currently, international, European, Arab and Islamic efforts are moving towards organizing an international conference in a serious and reliable path to achieve the two-state solution, with a series of steps that include successive international recognitions of the Palestinian state, followed by subsequent European measures.

international peace conference

Abu Badawiya points out that the Europeans have come to believe in the necessity of imposing the two-state solution, instead of relying on negotiations that have continued for more than three decades without tangible results. Accordingly, talks have begun on holding an international peace conference that may be announced in the near future, with the aim of imposing the two-state solution through outcomes that enjoy Arab and European consensus.

Abu Badawiya points out that this solution may include international recognition of the Palestinian state, with the use of economic, political and diplomatic tools for pressure, without the need for military intervention.

Two major obstacles

However, Abu Badawiya warns of two major obstacles that could hinder the success of the conference outcomes: the first is the hardline Israeli position led by the extreme right, which seeks to implement the annexation plan instead of accepting the two-state solution, and the second is the presence of Hamas within any future Palestinian government.

Abu Badawiya explains that there are ongoing meetings between the Fatah and Hamas movements aimed at forming a national consensus government that represents the entire Palestinian people, whether in the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, which may strengthen the hypothesis related to the conference outcomes.

Visible cracks in the Western alliance

Writer and political analyst Talal Okal believes that the convening of the Gulf-European summit today in Brussels amidst a political atmosphere carries multiple messages about the international and regional scenes, especially in light of the ongoing war in the region.

According to Awkal, this summit comes at a sensitive time, and highlights clear cracks in the Western alliance, which was initially a strong supporter of Israel since the first days of the war, but began to gradually disintegrate as Israel failed to achieve its military and political goals.

Awkal points out that this decline can be seen in the positions of European leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, who called for a halt to arms supplies to Israel, a position that indicates a growing European feeling that Israel is heading towards military escalation without taking into account the interests of its allies.

Awkal points out that there is a decline in the confidence of those gathered in American policy regarding influencing Benjamin Netanyahu's government on many issues related to the way the war is being managed.

Awkal points out that the European Union faces a major dilemma, as it realizes that Israel is seeking to expand the scope of the war in a way that may involve it in grave moral and political responsibilities, especially with regard to crimes committed against civilians and violations of international law.

Awkal believes that there is fear in Europe that the continuation of the war at this pace may drag the continent towards internal social and political repercussions, which reflects the increasing pressure on European governments to change their policies towards Israel.

Noticeable tensions in European-Israeli relations

Awkal points out that the Gulf-European meeting also reflects a loss of confidence in the Israeli role in managing the war in a way that takes into account regional interests. This lost confidence also includes the Arab role in the region, as many see the continuation of the war as a threat to their interests and stability, in light of the decline in the Arabs’ political weight in crisis management.

On the other hand, Awkal believes that European-Israeli relations are witnessing noticeable tensions, manifested in a series of “insults” directed by Israel at its European allies, the most prominent of which was the targeting of the UNIFIL forces, in addition to the failure of the French-American initiative that had received broad European and Arab support. Moreover, the ongoing Israeli escalation, especially on the Lebanese front, coincides with the approach of a possible Israeli military response to Iran, which makes the summit a means of trying to influence these future developments.

But despite the importance of this summit, Awkal points out that expectations regarding its outcomes seem very limited.

Awkal does not expect the summit to issue any substantive decisions such as recognizing a Palestinian state or making any tangible move toward a two-state solution, partly because the two groups lack independence from the United States, limiting their ability to take actual steps that could change the equation of the conflict.

Therefore, Awkal believes that the summit is expected to produce statements of condemnation, warnings, and sympathy for civilians affected by the war, but it may not find any response, either from Israel or from Washington.

According to Awkal, this summit ultimately seems more like a political attempt to clear consciences, without resulting in a real change in regional or international policies, which makes it, in the eyes of many, a failed attempt to improve European positions on Middle Eastern issues.

A clear European desire to strengthen its economic position in the region

Writer and political analyst Adnan Al-Sabah believes that today's Gulf-European summit in Brussels comes amid sensitive political and economic developments, as the European Union seeks to revive the free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

This summit, according to writer and political analyst Adnan Al-Sabah, reflects a clear European desire to strengthen its economic position in the region. However, it comes at a time when the Middle East is witnessing a major Israeli war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, which makes the political dimension of the summit more complex and sensitive.

The possibility of using Gulf influence

Al-Sabah believes that the Gulf states have strong pressure cards that they can use not only to pressure Europe, but also the United States, especially in light of the growing European need for economic cooperation with the Gulf.

This Gulf influence, according to Al-Sabah, can be used to trade economic issues for vital political issues, most notably the effort to stop the war in Gaza and Lebanon.

Al-Sabah stressed the importance of European countries declaring their true readiness to pressure Washington and work seriously to stop the ongoing "massacre" in the region, noting that the timing of the summit carries important strategic implications in light of that war.

Al-Sabah stresses that although the stated reason for holding the summit is to strengthen economic relations, the worsening military and political situation in the Middle East is strongly imposing itself on the meeting's agenda.

Al-Sabah points out that if the Europeans are serious about improving their relations with the Gulf states, they can actually exert tangible pressure on Washington to change its position on the war in Gaza and Lebanon, and achieve progress on the Palestinian file.

Political slogans without real action on the ground

However, Al-Sabah remains skeptical about the summit's ability to achieve tangible political progress, especially with regard to the two-state solution or recognition of the Palestinian state at the European level.

In Sabah's view, the summit may only produce economic outcomes, without achieving any real change in European policies towards the Palestinian issue.

Al-Sabah describes the summit as an “economic summit wrapped in politics,” where political slogans are raised without any real action on the ground.

Al-Sabah believes that the Gulf states are fully aware that any economic prosperity or stability in the region will not be achieved without a just solution to the Palestinian issue, and that continued neglect of this issue will hinder any efforts to achieve sustainable peace in the Middle East.

Gulf attempt to dominate the political scene

Writer and political analyst Suleiman Basharat believes that the European-Gulf summit comes within the framework of political efforts to read the future of the Middle East, and Middle Eastern-European relations in particular.

Basharat believes that this summit also comes in the context of the field and regional developments that the region has witnessed since October 7th until now, with increasing fears of future developments that may occur in the region.

Basharat believes that there are indications of a Gulf attempt to dominate the political scene in the Middle East, as the Gulf states seek to present themselves as a major axis capable of playing an influential role in the region’s equations.

Basharat points out that in recent years, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have tried to strengthen their regional role in major issues, starting with the Palestinian issue and the Arab-Israeli conflict, and extending to strengthening their international relations with China, Turkey and Iran, in addition to their presence in international issues such as the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.

He explains that these Gulf movements come in the context of the vacuum left by the decline in the roles of some traditional powers in the region, such as Egypt, which used to play an important role in the Palestinian issue, but has witnessed a noticeable decline in recent years in this regard, and therefore the Arab Gulf states are now trying to present themselves as a new regional power in the Middle East.

Basharat points out that the importance of the European-Gulf summit lies in the nature of the ongoing changes in the region, whether in relation to the Palestinian issue, developments on the northern border with Lebanon, or the potential escalation with Iran, which are developments that have major repercussions on food and energy supply chains in the region and the world.

On the other hand, Basharat believes that it is too early to count on the possibility that this summit will affect the future of the two-state solution or achieve more international recognition of the State of Palestine, especially since the United States is still leading the political scene in the region.

The European Union has not been able to bypass the American role.

Basharat points out that the European Union has not yet been able to bypass the American role, and that the recognitions issued by some European countries regarding Palestine are more symbolic than they have any real political impact.

He points out that the Palestinian issue will certainly be on the summit's agenda, but in the end, the United States will not allow any radical changes in the political position towards the Palestinian issue, especially in light of the ongoing war on the Gaza Strip.

Basharat points out that the current Israeli vision aims to impose a new reality that cannot be accepted by the Palestinians or by many regional and international parties.

Basharat believes that it is still too early to talk about imposing a two-state solution at this stage, expecting the summit to come out with recommendations and calls that may be merely symbolic statements without taking clear and decisive political positions on the Palestinian issue.

The importance of the summit politically, diplomatically and in terms of timing

Writer and political analyst Ahmed Zakarna confirms that the Gulf-European summit in Brussels today is the first of its kind, and comes in response to the call of Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan to form an international coalition to support the establishment of the Palestinian state.

Zakarna points out that this call carries clear indications that the European and Gulf systems have begun to move outside the scope of American influence.

He explained that the timing of the summit is of particular importance, as the region is witnessing an expansion in the scope of the war, extending to Lebanon, with expectations that the war may escalate beyond Lebanon.

Zakarneh believes that this summit comes as an international effort to curb this expansion, by forming a broad international front aimed at enhancing recognition of the Palestinian state, in an attempt to limit the outbreak of new fighting fronts, which is what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right government are seeking.

Zakarna points out that this timing carries important symbolism, as it shows the international community’s rejection, whether in Europe or the Gulf, of continuing the conflict that only leads to the killing of innocents, caused by the brutal and criminal Israeli war machine.

Expanding the front of recognition of the State of Palestine

Zakarna believes that one of the main topics that will be discussed at the European-Gulf summit is reviving the two-state solution and seeking broader recognition of the Palestinian state, especially at the European level.

Zakarneh points out that a number of European countries have previously recognized the Palestinian state individually, but the European Union as a bloc of 27 countries has not yet achieved comprehensive recognition, and there are current efforts to push for unified recognition.

Zakarneh expects that France may be the starting point in this path, and Britain, despite being outside the European Union, pointing out that the summit may contribute to expanding the front of recognition of the State of Palestine.

Despite the optimism surrounding the important summit, Zakarna warns that its outcomes may not achieve the final solution regarding the two-state solution, but he considers it an additional step that highlights the need to expand international sponsorship of the peace process, away from exclusive American hegemony.

Zakarna explains that there are demands to reactivate the International Quartet Committee, to work on achieving peace.

The development of things is linked to the results of the US elections.

However, Zakarneh stresses that the development of matters is linked to the results of the upcoming US presidential elections. If the Democrats win, it may open the door to serious moves towards a two-state solution, while if the Republicans return to power under the leadership of Donald Trump, the situation is likely to become more complicated.

In light of this, Zakarna believes that expectations regarding the summit’s outcomes should be limited, despite its diplomatic and political importance.

The summit is increasingly important amid current geopolitical challenges.

Journalist Muhannad Abdul Hamid points out that political, economic and technological relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the European Union are gaining increasing importance in light of the current geopolitical challenges created by the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Israeli aggression on Palestine and Lebanon, which threaten regional and international security and stability.

Abdul Hamid points out that the volume of trade exchange between the two groups reached $186 billion in 2022, making the European Union the second largest trading partner of the Gulf countries after China.

According to Abdul Hamid, these figures indicate the importance of mutual interests in the areas of strategic goods and markets, which are factors that translate into political and geopolitical cooperation, as the economy cannot be separated from politics and security, and thus this cooperation can contribute to reducing the intensity of regional and international conflicts.

Abdul Hamid believes that the Gulf-European summit in Brussels today comes at a very sensitive time, amid the escalation of the Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people, which has extended to Lebanon, threatening to turn into a comprehensive regional war.

Abdul Hamid points out that this meeting is particularly important given Israel's ongoing violations of basic Palestinian rights and breaches of international law, as well as the failure of the United States to stop this aggression.

Support the Saudi initiative to establish an international coalition

Abdul Hamid expects the summit to support the Saudi initiative, which aims to establish an international alliance that includes Arab and Islamic countries and the European Union countries, with the aim of establishing an independent Palestinian state and enabling the Palestinian people to determine their fate.

Abdul Hamid asserts that the continued US bias towards Israel, along with the European countries’ indifference towards Israeli violations, have encouraged Netanyahu’s government to continue rejecting any political solutions and shelving the Palestinian issue.

Abdul Hamid believes that separating the Palestinian issue from normalization agreements with Arab countries led to further Israeli escalation, as Netanyahu’s government confiscated more land, increased settlements, ethnic cleansing, and undermined the Palestinian Authority.

The world's ignoring of Netanyahu's policies has had disastrous results

Abdul Hamid stresses that the world's disregard for Netanyahu's policies had disastrous consequences, as it led to the explosion of the situation in the West Bank and Jerusalem, and ended with the most severe explosion on October 7, which was known as the "Al-Aqsa Flood."

Abdul Hamid points out that events have proven that stability in the region will not be achieved without finding a political solution acceptable to the Palestinian people, and peace cannot be achieved with a state that practices a colonial apartheid system against the Palestinians.

Abdul Hamid asserts that the Israeli occupation state has violated trade agreements with the European Union, which oblige it to respect human rights and international law, and has also violated agreements with Jordan and Egypt, as well as normalization agreements, by practicing war policies against the Palestinians, which makes these agreements worthless in light of these violations.

Linking any agreements with Israel to a comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue

Abdul Hamid points out that Arab countries have an objective interest in linking any agreements with Israel to a comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue, in line with the Arab Peace Initiative, which called for an end to the occupation.

Abdul Hamid believes that including the issue of chronic occupation and the implementation of international legitimacy resolutions, especially the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, on the summit’s agenda is a necessity, especially in light of the war of extermination waged by Israel in Gaza and the ongoing liquidation campaigns in the West Bank.

Abdul Hamid points out that statements supporting Palestinian rights are not enough if they are not accompanied by practical actions, an immediate call to stop the war, and the imposition of pressures and sanctions on Israel, in addition to providing urgent economic support to the Palestinian people, especially in the Gaza Strip, which is suffering from a stifling siege and a worsening humanitarian crisis.