Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad: Israel did not achieve its declared goals from the war, but rather its internal and international problems worsened

Mohammad Jaradat: Restoring some international support for the Palestinian cause and unprecedented Israeli global isolation

Dr. Abdul Majeed Sweilem: October 7th turned the tables on dangerous transformations and political arrangements that were being prepared for the region

Mohammad Manasra: The Palestinian people were subjected to widespread killings and lost sympathy from many in the world

Firas Yaghi: The balance of losses and profits cannot be evaluated until the dust of war and its ongoing repercussions settle.

On the anniversary of the events of October 7, major transformations in the course of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict emerge, as Israel received military and political blows that revealed its strategic weakness, despite the international support it receives, while the Palestinians suffered heavy losses in the Gaza Strip in particular. Despite this, the Palestinian issue has emerged again on the international scene, after it had been threatened with marginalization in recent years, which has re-shed light on the importance of finding a comprehensive solution to the conflict.

In separate interviews with "I", writers and political analysts believe that one of the most prominent repercussions of the events was the great exposure of Israeli military capabilities and the decline in its ability to achieve its strategic goals in Gaza and Lebanon. Despite carrying out some security operations and assassinations, Israel was unable to achieve the goals of the war by recovering the detainees or achieving internal security stability, which led to a crisis in its position on the international and regional arenas, while the Palestinian resistance continues to carry out its attacks, which reflects its ability to withstand, despite the heavy losses suffered by the Palestinians.

Writers and analysts point out that Israel's international isolation has deepened, while the Palestinian issue has gained new international momentum, and priorities have been reordered on the international scene. Despite the major challenges, the current scene indicates that the stability of the region depends primarily on achieving a just and comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue.

Heavy Israeli losses

Writer and political analyst Dr. Ahmed Rafiq Awad reviews the losses and gains incurred by Israel and the Palestinian people as a result of the events of October 7.

Awad believes that Israel has suffered great losses, most notably the exposure of its military and political weakness, as events have shown that it is no longer able to withstand without Western and American support.

Awad points out that this weakness was evident in the collapse of the narratives that Israel was promoting regarding its military strength and the deterrent power it claimed, in addition to what he described as the internal rifts and erosion that affected Israeli social and political institutions.

Among the most prominent losses that Israel has also suffered, according to Awad, are the international blockade it is living under, and the significant decline in the legitimacy of the Israeli occupation in the eyes of the international community, as Israel has lost the ability to justify its existence and practices before the world, in addition to the human and economic losses that have increased significantly.

Despite all this information, Awad believes that Israel did not achieve its declared goals from this war, but rather its internal and international problems worsened.

The political ceiling of the Palestinian issue has declined

On the Palestinian side, Awad explains that the Palestinian people have suffered heavy losses in terms of lives and infrastructure, as the aggression has led to widespread destruction in Gaza and a de facto separation between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

He stresses that the political ceiling of the Palestinian issue has declined significantly, which has prevented any progress towards a peaceful settlement or internal Palestinian reconciliation.

Awad points out that the region's weak ability to resolve the Palestinian issue has become more apparent after October 7, and that the international community has not yet been able to provide a final and radical solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

But despite these losses, Awad believes that there are some gains that have been achieved for the Palestinians, the most important of which is the expansion of international recognition of the Palestinian cause as a central issue that must be dealt with.

Awad explains that Israel has been exposed to the world, making the Palestinian issue a focus of international attention that cannot be ignored.

There is no security or stability in the region without a Palestinian state.

Awad asserts that October 7th showed that the international system is sterile and unable to resolve ongoing conflicts, and that the regional system is exhausted and subject to Israeli control.

In his analysis of the strategic dimensions of the events of October 7, Dr. Awad asserts that these events raise a fundamental idea, which is that stability and peace cannot be achieved in the region, not even for Israel, without establishing an independent Palestinian state.

Awad believes that one of the most prominent repercussions of this day is to demonstrate the continued presence of the Palestinian cause on the international scene, and the impossibility of its absence. October 7 also raises questions about the type of settlement possible between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Is it a settlement between a slave and a master or between equal partners? Awad asserts that any attempt to settle peace between slaves and masters will be doomed to failure.

The absence of the Arab system from the international scene

Awad points out that October 7 revealed the great absence of the Arab system from the international scene, and showed the extent of the strategic vacuum in the region, as regional powers continue to control their fate and influence the course of events.

He believes that these shortcomings must be addressed, and that reforms must be carried out based on what the events of October 7 showed.

As for his expectations for the next stage, Awad believes that things are still at their peak, as the Israeli aggression has expanded to include several fronts, not just the Palestinian people.

Awad points out that Israel seeks, through this war, to close its strategic files with its enemies in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and other fronts.

Awad believes that Israel will not stop continuing the war in the near future, but it depends heavily on American support.

Awad raises the question of whether the United States will continue to support Israel with such strength, especially after the upcoming US presidential elections.

Awad points out that Israel considers this war a "second war of independence," believing that the war may continue until 2026 as Israel seeks to achieve its strategic goals.

turning point in the course of the conflict

Writer and political analyst Mohammed Jaradat examines the effects of October 7, one year after the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” tracing the gains and losses on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides.

According to Jaradat, this historic event reflects radical shifts at the political and military levels in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with a focus on how to revive the Palestinian cause in the international arena and its impact on Israel.

Jaradat points out that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” has revived the Palestinian cause after it had been threatened with marginalization since the Arab Spring, during the ten years following the Arab revolutions, when the Palestinian cause had receded from the international agenda. However, October 7 succeeded in restoring its luster to the international arena, and for the first time in a long time, the Palestinian cause has become a matter of wide interest, not only at the popular level but also at the international political level.

Jaradat explains that what happened following the war of extermination on the Gaza Strip led to the adoption of several resolutions supporting the Palestinian cause, whether by the UN Security Council or the UN General Assembly. This period also witnessed a wave of recognition of Palestine as a state, despite the challenges associated with this recognition.

For Jaradat, these developments are a gain for the Palestinians and a loss for Israel, which has been seeking to isolate the Palestinian cause politically.

Palestinian steadfastness...and a change in the international approach

In the same context, Jaradat cites international solidarity with the Palestinian cause, which was manifested in large demonstrations in various parts of the world, including American, European and Canadian universities. These movements no longer focus only on peaceful settlements, but rather view Palestine from the perspective of historical rights from the sea to the river, which reflects a major change in the way the international community deals with the Palestinian cause.

As for living conditions, Jaradat confirms that last year was a bloody year for the Palestinians, especially in the Gaza Strip, which was subjected to massacres and widespread destruction. The infrastructure was destroyed, hunger and poor health care spread, while workers in the West Bank lost their livelihoods due to Israeli restrictions. However, Jaradat points out that this bitter reality is temporary, despite the great human losses suffered by the Palestinians.

From the military side, Jaradat explains that the Palestinian resistance was able to maintain its capabilities, despite the great sacrifices.

Jaradat points out that a year after the October 7 attack, the resistance is still continuing its attacks on Tel Aviv and the Gaza Strip settlements, and carrying out qualitative operations, as happened on the first anniversary of the Al-Aqsa Flood, which reflects its control on the ground.

Jaradat asserts that the resistance has also held out on the political level, maintaining its cohesion and unity with other factions, such as the Islamic Jihad Movement, despite attempts to liquidate the Palestinian cause.

Israel faces major challenges

On the Israeli side, Jaradat believes that Israel is experiencing unprecedented global isolation since its founding in 1948. A year after the Al-Aqsa flood, Israel found itself facing major challenges on several levels, including social and economic.

Despite its success in carrying out some assassinations and security operations, Jaradat confirms that the security failure was clear in Israel, especially with regard to dealing with the resistance missiles, as Israel was unable to determine the sources of those missiles, which increased the state of confusion within its security ranks, pointing out that Israel was unable to achieve its strategic goals, despite its successes in assassinations and destruction.

On the other hand, Jaradat explains that Israel was unable to achieve its military goals in Gaza, as it failed to recover the detainees or establish a government affiliated with it in the Strip.

On the Lebanese front, Jaradat points out that Israel has not been able to return the northern settlers to their homes. On the contrary, the depth of displacement has increased as a result of the ongoing threats from Hezbollah, and Iran’s bombing of Israel has added another challenge to Israel’s deterrent power, which has declined significantly.

Jaradat points out that October 7 created profound strategic shifts in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Israel is now suffering from a crisis in terms of its military and political power, while the Palestinians have regained some international support for their cause, despite the great sacrifices they have made.

Jaradat believes that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” represents a major turning point in the course of the conflict, strengthening the position of the Palestinian cause in the international arena and weakening Israel’s strategic position.

The Middle East is witnessing major political transformations.

Writer and political analyst Dr. Abdul Majeed Suwailem believes that the Palestinian attack on October 7 was not just a random Palestinian response, but rather the result of careful planning and preparation in advance, aiming to turn the tables on the political arrangements that were being prepared for the region.

Suwailem points out that the Middle East is witnessing major political transformations, as a new Middle East is beginning to take shape led by Israel, which will transform into a regional leader under the umbrella of American support, starting with the era of former American presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, who sought to integrate Israel into the region and impose it as a pivotal power, while deliberately ignoring the Palestinian issue.

From Suwailem’s perspective, the Arab normalization process with Israel was translated into a clear bypassing of the Palestinian issue, as the focus was on economic interests away from the national rights of the Palestinian people. As these alliances developed, it seemed as if the Palestinian issue had become marginalized in regional and international politics, but the October 7 attack brought this issue back to the forefront.

Severe blows to Israel

Suwailem believes that this attack had a major impact on Israel’s position as a dominant power in the region. Since October 7, Israel has been subjected to severe blows, as it faces unprecedented challenges from the Palestinian factions in Gaza, which, after a year of war of extermination, have continued to launch rockets at Tel Aviv and the envelope areas, in addition to confronting Israeli forces on the ground.

Suwailem believes that Israel has suffered a devastating blow to its deterrent power, although it still has the ability to destroy and kill, but it has not achieved victory, as destruction does not achieve victory.

He points out that the Israeli failure to achieve any decisive victory, whether in Gaza or in Lebanon, reflects the beginning of the end of its ability to impose its hegemony in the region. In Lebanon, Israeli forces suffered heavy losses in ground operations, as they were unable to break the back of Hezbollah, whose fire now targets the northern regions and regularly bombs Israeli targets until it reached the equation that bombing the southern suburb means bombing Haifa.

Suwailem points out the participation of the resistance in Yemen, the Iraqi resistance, and Iran in this war. Yemen, for example, has come to control the sea lanes in the Red Sea, while the Iraqi resistance is carrying out special operations that contribute to strengthening the axis of resistance. As for Iran, it responded forcefully to Israel’s assassination of the head of the political bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, and the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. All of this reflects the expansion of the conflict and the deterioration of the regional situation.

In this context, Suwailem believes that Israel found itself trapped between two options: either continuing the war, which will not be of any use, or returning to the negotiating table.

Suwailem points out that open war between Israel and the axis of resistance will only lead to more destruction and losses, but will not achieve a decisive Israeli victory.

Palestinian losses do not affect the strategic balance of the conflict

On the Palestinian level, Suwailem acknowledges that the Palestinian people paid a heavy price as a result of this war, as tens of thousands lost their lives, and the infrastructure in the Gaza Strip was almost completely destroyed, turning it into an area unfit for living.

However, Suwailem stresses that these losses do not affect the strategic balance of the conflict, as the Palestinian resistance was able to remain strong and continue to strike Israel.

Suwailem points out that Israel finds itself in a deep predicament, not only at the level of the military conflict, but also at the level of its regional status, as its continuation of the war will only lead to further deterioration at the political, economic and security levels.

Suwailem expects that the war may end soon, either within a few weeks or months, but the question remains about what comes after this war, because Israel is in a predicament that threatens its existence.

For Suwailem, October 7 brought the Palestinian issue back to the international forefront, and forced everyone to recognize that the only solution to stability in the region is through a just solution to the Palestinian issue.

Suwailem believes that the axis of resistance, despite the enormous pressures it has been subjected to, has not been broken and is still able to withstand and achieve its goals, stressing that October 7th changed the balance of power in the region and rearranged priorities on the international scene.

The Palestinian people did not find sympathy from many

Writer and political analyst Muhammad Musa Manasra believes that the Palestinian people were led into a bloody and catastrophic confrontation, where they were subjected to widespread killings that did not find sympathy from many, including some intellectuals and local elites.

Manasra reviews a major problem that lies in some people projecting their political fantasies and wishes onto the events of October 7, considering that the goal was to resist the occupation and achieve the rights of the Palestinian people to self-determination and the establishment of an independent state.

Manasra believes that the Qassam Brigades lost the ability to fully control many months ago, as the fighters began to operate within a framework of decentralization after the martyrdom of the majority of the leaders, and only a few of them remained besides Sinwar.

Manasra addresses the massive human losses suffered by the Palestinians, noting that there were about 200,000 martyrs and wounded, and the widespread destruction of the Gaza Strip, making it uninhabitable.

Palestinians have lost control of their political destiny.

Manasra asserts that the Palestinians have lost control over their political destiny, and that major countries such as Israel, the United States, and the Arab countries will determine the future of the Palestinian cause within the framework of a new Middle East.

On the other hand, he criticizes the support of some Hamas leaders, whom he describes as completely out of touch with reality in Gaza, such as Khaled Meshaal, who described the huge losses as merely “tactical losses.”

Manasra warns that the Palestinian national cause is facing a bleak phase, as a result of what he describes as the Muslim Brotherhood’s adventures and wrong decisions, which lacked an accurate reading of the internal, regional and international situations.

Manasra points out that the major problem lies in the current Palestinian leadership’s refusal to evaluate what happened during the previous and current years of struggle, which puts the entire future of the cause at stake.

The repercussions of the war are still ongoing in the region.

Writer and political analyst Firas Yaghi believes that the balance of losses and gains in the raging war cannot be evaluated until the battle ends and the misleading dust that surrounds it due to its nature has settled.

Yaghi points out that the ongoing war and its repercussions are still ongoing, and are even expanding to include other areas in the region, including Lebanon, and may extend to other areas due to the policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Yaghi explains that Netanyahu seeks to change the name of the operation from “Iron Swords” to “The Resurrection War,” considering that this reflects its existential nature, as the conflict is presented as either “us or you,” in reference to Israel’s attempt to destroy its enemies at any cost, and subjugate them by force according to the Jabotinsky theory.

Yaghi believes that Israel, despite its extensive use of military force and its destruction of Gaza and parts of Lebanon, has not yet been able to achieve its declared or undeclared goals.

He points out that these undeclared goals relate to the concept of "security zeroing" that Netanyahu seeks, which revolves around permanently eliminating the Palestinian and Shiite presence in the region, by targeting the social and human environment, and not just a military confrontation.

Palestinians and Lebanese pay a heavy price

Despite the heavy losses suffered by Israel, Yaghi explains that the Palestinians and Lebanese are paying a heavy and unprecedented price in modern times due to the Israeli bombing and operations that are characterized by extreme brutality.

Yaghi stresses that what Israel is doing cannot be described as a traditional military battle, but rather as a genocide targeting both humans and stones, as humans are martyred and buildings are martyred.

Regarding the Israeli losses, Yaghi points out that Israel has not yet achieved its strategic goals, whether declared or undeclared, such as destroying the resistance factions in Gaza or southern Lebanon. On the contrary, the resistance continues to stand firm and deliver effective blows, despite the loss of life it is suffering, and despite the very high prices the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples have paid.

Yaghi links the possibility of ending this war to political transformations within Israel, or major American intervention, noting that the solution is through political settlements that include Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, the return of the Palestinian Authority, and national agreements among all Palestinians.

However, Yaghi believes that this scenario is not possible under the current Netanyahu government, which continues to declare Israeli expansionist policies, in collusion with the United States and the West.

Resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has become an international necessity

Yaghi stresses that resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has become an international necessity, as the conflict has become part of the global agenda, and without resolving this conflict, the region will continue to suffer from wars and attrition.

But Yaghi hints that a solution may not be on the horizon, especially in light of the current political climate and the lack of a real intention for a settlement by Israel and the United States, and that matters will escalate or remain in place until the end of the American elections.