Major General Dr. Muhammad Al-Masry: Dealing with these breaches will take time and will affect Hezbollah’s capabilities and cadres

Major General Wassef Erekat: Hezbollah is capable of overcoming this crisis, which is evident in the continuation of its operations

Akram Atallah: Israeli strikes confirm Hezbollah's failure to take necessary precautions and hit its central nerve

Hani Abu Al-Sabaa: Hezbollah may rally around its leadership again after the first major response.. and what happened brought a comprehensive war closer

Samer Anabtawi: A strategic shift in Israel’s security and military policy and efforts to move to the Lebanese front

The Lebanese arena is witnessing a noticeable escalation in the level of tension between Hezbollah and Israel, in light of multiple security breaches that have undermined the party’s capabilities and affected its cadres, while the Israeli strikes carried several political and military messages.

In separate interviews with “I”, writers, political analysts, security and military experts believe that these developments come within the framework of the ongoing escalation between the two parties for decades, which reached its peak after the events of October 8, 2023, and that these breaches come in the context of Israel’s efforts to neutralize Hezbollah and separate it from the Gaza front, in light of its attempts to restore its security and intelligence prestige that was shaken after October 7.

While the security breaches that the party has been subjected to appear to have been the result of local cooperation and advanced technologies, writers and experts believe that the attacks that targeted the party’s cadres and military leaders indicate a high level of Israeli intelligence planning. However, despite these painful blows, Hezbollah continues to target Israeli military sites, which highlights its ability to withstand, organize and restore its ranks, and continue to respond to Israeli attacks.

Writers and experts confirm that with the escalation of pressure on Hezbollah, the party finds itself facing major challenges not only in maintaining its military capabilities, but also in confronting the influence on its popular base and strengthening its confidence in it.

The conflict dates back to 1982.

Major General Dr. Muhammad Al-Masry, an expert in security and strategic affairs, confirms that the conflict between Hezbollah and the Israeli occupation state dates back to 1982, where it witnessed several different stages, leading up to the events of October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah entered as a support front under the slogan "We will not abandon the Gaza Strip."

This development, according to Al-Masry, has exhausted the Israeli occupation army, but the countries allied with Israel are striving to prevent things from getting out of control.

The Egyptian general points out that the security breaches that occurred within Hezbollah were not surprising, explaining that Israel has maintained a security presence in Lebanon since 1978.

Al-Masry points out that the leniency of the Lebanese resistance in dealing with those who cooperated with the Israeli occupation state contributed to the aggravation of the situation, especially in light of the internal divisions in Lebanon regarding Hezbollah.

Al-Masry points out that the Israeli occupation and other countries may have worked to hack Hezbollah’s communications devices, which resulted in the explosion of these devices and the assassination of military leaders in the southern suburbs of Beirut, considering this to be evidence of the existence of other security breaches within the party, in addition to the technical breaches.

Although there is a widespread belief that Hezbollah is immune and enjoys strong popular and sectarian support, the Egyptian general points out that this does not mean that it is impenetrable, stressing that all entities around the world are vulnerable to penetration, and addressing these penetrations will take time and will affect the party’s capabilities and cadres.

Full declaration of war from Israel

Al-Masry describes what happened as a full declaration of war by Israel, aiming to separate the Lebanon front from Gaza, as well as secure a safe zone in northern occupied Palestine to resettle the population, pointing out that Israel seeks to silence the Gaza and West Bank fronts, which is what we have witnessed in the absence of media coverage.

The Egyptian general confirms that Israel's focus on penetrating Hezbollah comes within the framework of its attempt to restore its security, intelligence and military prestige that it lost after the events of October 7.

Al-Masry explains that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to achieve military achievements to restore Israeli control and prestige, as the anniversary of the October 7 events approaches.

Hezbollah has the capabilities to respond

Regarding Hezbollah, Al-Masry explains that the party has the capabilities necessary to respond, but it may avoid doing so for fear of entering into a wider regional war, noting that the decision to respond is no longer in the hands of the party alone, but has become in the hands of Iran.

Al-Masry points out that if there had been a strong response after the assassination of leaders of the movement, such as Ismail Haniyeh, Saleh al-Arouri, and Fouad Shukr, Israel might have been deterred.

Today, according to Al-Masry, Israel believes that its hand is long, especially with Netanyahu’s belief that his opponents do not want a comprehensive regional war, which made him exploit this situation to prolong the war, to escape the trials that await him.

However, Al-Masry believes that the matter is no longer in the hands of the party’s leadership, but rather is linked to Iran’s decisions, given the possibility of the conflict turning into a comprehensive regional war.

Although the people's confidence in Hezbollah has not completely disappeared, it has been wounded, as the party is still considered a state in itself in the eyes of the popular incubator, Al-Masry said.

A painful blow

Retired Major General Wassef Erekat, a strategic military and security expert, points out that the Lebanese resistance, through Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, acknowledged that what happened recently was a “painful blow.”

Erekat explains that this strike came as a result of Israel's reliance on accurate and sensitive intelligence and security information, which clearly indicates the existence of a security breach achieved by the Israeli security and intelligence services, as it came in contrast to Israel's inability to achieve a similar breach in the battlefields and the southern front.

Erekat believes that the Lebanese resistance and Hezbollah are capable of overcoming this crisis, which is evident in Hezbollah’s continued targeting of Israeli military targets and sites in an escalating and effective manner.

Israeli messages

According to Erekat, Israel seeks to send several messages to Hezbollah and its popular base through these attacks. The first message aims to separate the Lebanese front from the Gaza front, while the second message focuses on distancing Hezbollah from the Lebanese-Israeli border in order to secure the return of settlers to their settlements in northern occupied Palestine. The third message is to affect the morale of Hezbollah’s environment and its popular base and shake their confidence in the party’s ability to confront Israel. The fourth message seeks to deepen the internal Lebanese division and affect Hezbollah’s reputation by trying to make it appear weak.

Regarding the possibility that the Israeli strikes will lead to a decline in Hezbollah attacks, Erekat confirms that Hezbollah’s statements, through its Secretary-General, indicate that the party will not change its position in supporting Gaza, no matter the sacrifices.

Erekat points out that Nasrallah, in his statements, confirmed that the party does not seek a comprehensive war, but at the same time does not fear it, unlike Israel, which may want a comprehensive war, but hesitates for fear of not guaranteeing direct American support.

While Erekat points out that this position may change after the assassination of Hezbollah leaders and resistance fighters in recent days, which may lead to an escalation of the situation according to the expected reactions, which opens the door to the possibility of the situation deteriorating and losing control over it, especially in the event of heavy losses on both sides.

Erekat believes that “Israel realizes that its tactical successes in the field of security and intelligence warfare, although they may give it temporary euphoria, do not achieve its strategic goals in the long term. Israel is still forced to wage a ground war if it wants to achieve its main goals, which are to remove Hezbollah from the border and secure the return of settlers to their settlements in the north, in addition to separating the Lebanon front from the Gaza front once and for all.”

Erekat points out that Hezbollah, over the course of 42 years since its establishment, has been exposed to many shocks and major losses, but it possesses extensive field experience and expertise that enables it to overcome these crises.

Despite acknowledging that what the party has been exposed to since September 17 constitutes qualitative blows, Erekat confirms that the party is now facing a difficult test.

Erekat points out that Nasrallah's recent statements confirm that the response to Israel will be tangible on the ground, as Nasrallah said: "The response is what you see, not what you hear," indicating that the party will not stop at talking, but will continue to respond with field operations.

Israel seeks to restore deterrence

Writer and political analyst Akram Atallah explains that the recent Israeli strikes clearly reflect an advanced ability to reach its targets, noting that for the first time, Israel used technology extensively to target more than three thousand Hezbollah members and cadres in one day.

These strikes, according to Atallah, indicate that Hezbollah did not take the necessary precautions to confront this advanced technological attack or the necessary security arrangements to fully protect its members and leaders.

Atallah believes that Israel seems serious about achieving its security and military goals, especially after the assassination of Hezbollah Chief of Staff Fouad Shukr at the end of last July.

Atallah stresses that the message that Israel is trying to convey through these operations is that no party can stand in its way. Israel seeks to restore the deterrent power that was eroded in its previous confrontations with Hezbollah, which makes its recent messages harsh and bloody, as it pushes towards imposing a heavy price on any party that attacks it.

Atallah points out that these Israeli attacks will have a major impact on Hezbollah's military capabilities, as they targeted the party's central nerve elements, including members of the "Radwan Force" responsible for special operations, and elements carrying communications devices who are party cadres.

A strong blow to the central nerve of the party

Atallah believes that these strikes dealt a strong blow to the party's central nerve, but did not reach the level of completely breaking the party.

Regarding the issue of a comprehensive war, Atallah points out that the decision on this lies in the hands of Israel, not Hezbollah. Israel is the one who wants to wage this war for several reasons, while Hezbollah seeks to avoid it.

Atallah confirms that Hezbollah is fully aware that Israel prefers to enter into a comprehensive war, while the party is making great efforts to avoid such a war, realizing the seriousness of the current situation, especially after the recent strikes it was subjected to.

Atallah explains that the Israelis are now living in a state of “euphoria” after their success in targeting prominent leaders and elements in Hezbollah, which has noticeably changed the language used by the Israeli leadership compared to previous months, when Israel was unable to open a front in the north or talk about a large-scale confrontation there. Now, after these strikes and assassinations, Israeli behavior seems to be more confident and escalating.

However, Atallah believes that Hezbollah has long experience in dealing with such challenges, and maintains reserve cadres that enable it to restore its organizational structure.

Atallah points out that if Hezbollah is forced into a comprehensive war, it has no choice but to wage it, but it is striving to avoid this scenario, at the present time, for reasons related to the strikes it received last week, which weakened some of the capabilities of its basic military infrastructure.

scorched earth policy

The writer, political analyst and specialist in Israeli affairs, Hani Abu Al-Sabaa, explains that the Israeli occupation state has adopted, since its establishment, a military doctrine based on rapid wars and transferring battles to enemy territory, in addition to following a scorched earth policy.

According to Abu Al-Sabaa, this strategy has proven successful in confronting traditional Arab armies, but it has failed against organizations that rely on guerrilla warfare, such as Hezbollah and the Palestinian factions, which do not rely on fixed military bases.

Abu Al-Sabaa points out that in the context of its attempts to overcome these challenges, Israel has resorted to developing new strategies that rely primarily on intelligence breaches, with a focus on targeting the senior leadership of these organizations. One of the most prominent Israeli security arms that played a pivotal role in these operations is the Mossad, which is considered Israel’s external security arm and is considered the upper hand in implementing these breaches.

Abu Al-Sabaa points to a report published by Yedioth Ahronoth in 2017, which showed that Mossad had successfully carried out more than 2,700 operations, including the assassination of prominent leaders in the Palestine Liberation Organization, such as Khalil Al-Wazir (Abu Jihad), Salah Khalaf (Abu Iyad), and Hael Abdel Hamid (Abu Al-Hawl) in Tunisia. Mossad operations also targeted other leaders, including Fathi Shaqaqi, the founder of the Islamic Jihad movement, who was assassinated in Malta, and Hamas military commander Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh, who was assassinated in Dubai. Israel also targeted Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of Hamas, in an operation in Tehran, in addition to kidnapping engineer Darrar Al-Sisi from a train station in Ukraine.

Abu Al-Sabaa points out that the Mossad's activities were not limited to the Palestinian factions, but also extended to include the kidnapping of the Nazi officer Adolf Eichmann and his trial in Israel, as well as the Lebanese Hezbollah, which witnessed the largest security breach in its history by Israeli intelligence.

The major penetration of Hezbollah, according to Abu Al-Sabaa, came in a context similar to previous Mossad attempts, where Israel relied on advanced eavesdropping techniques and the use of local agents, specifically after Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil was injured by a booby-trapped device. Israeli intelligence was able to track him until he reached the hospital, exploiting the state of alert within the party that resulted from the incident, and then tracked him until he was assassinated.

He points out that Hebrew media reports say that the Israeli infiltration began with the entry of Hezbollah forces into Syria, where Israel exploited the security vacuum in Lebanon and planted eavesdropping devices and surveillance cameras in sensitive areas with the help of agents from the dissolved South Lebanon Army.

Israeli goals for the breaches

Abu Al-Sabaa asserts that these intelligence breaches aim to achieve several goals for Israel, the most important of which is an attempt to deter Hezbollah from entering into an open confrontation, and to limit its role in the Palestinian conflict, in addition to sending a message to the party’s popular base that its leadership is infiltrated and unable to protect itself, which could lead to a loss of confidence in it.

Despite these attempts, Abu Al-Sabaa believes that the Israeli attacks did not contribute to ending the conflict with Hezbollah, and may have even brought the region closer to a comprehensive war. However, the party realizes that Israel is seeking to drag it into a confrontation in which it has clear military superiority, and thus Hezbollah may respond in a way that maintains the balance of deterrence without being dragged into a comprehensive war.

Abu Al-Sabaa points out that Israel sees its security breaches as a major achievement that deters its enemies, but they may have the opposite effect over time, as most of the residents of the occupied northern areas live near shelters, which has led to a state of near-total paralysis in the state.

Abu Al-Sabaa believes that Hezbollah has been subjected to many blows in the past, such as the assassination of leaders Imad Mughniyeh and Samir Kuntar, but these attacks did not stop its progress. Although the latest blow may be painful, as described by the party’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, history proves that blows that do not break the organization make it stronger and more resilient, which may be confirmed on the battlefield soon.

Abu Al-Sabaa expects that Hezbollah will rally around its leadership after the first major response, as the party returns to the battlefield to confirm its presence and pivotal role, despite all Israeli attempts to undermine it.

Transferring the conflict from the Gaza Strip front to Lebanon

Writer and political analyst Samer Anabtawi believes that the Israeli security breaches against the Lebanese Hezbollah come as part of a broader strategy through which Israel seeks to transfer the conflict from the Gaza Strip front to Lebanon, which is considered a strategic shift in Israeli security and military policy.

Anbatawi says: “If we review the history of the Israeli security and political leadership, we find that the trend towards war with Lebanon was not born of the moment, but rather developed gradually over the past period.”

According to Anabtawi, at the beginning of the events, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant supported the idea of entering into a direct confrontation with Lebanon, but Netanyahu refused, preferring to focus on Gaza. As the situation escalated, Netanyahu began to push for an escalation with Hezbollah, but Galant refused and Netanyahu threatened to replace him with Sa’ar. However, Galant eventually relented and his position shifted to be in line with Netanyahu’s.

This shift, according to Anbatawi, reflects Netanyahu’s desire to exploit the internal situation in Israel and the ongoing crisis, whether in tourism or the economy, which has been exacerbated by the ongoing genocidal war against the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu also sees the US elections as an opportunity to gain Washington’s full support in what he calls confronting Israel’s seven “enemies,” which has prompted him to push to expand the circle of confrontation to include Lebanon, in an effort to drag Hezbollah into operations that could ignite a comprehensive war that could expand into a regional war in the region and push the United States to intervene.

Attempting to strike Hezbollah's popular support

Anbatawi explains that Israel, through these security breaches, is trying to send several messages to Hezbollah. The first of these messages relates to an attempt to strike the party’s popular base, as Israel seeks through these operations to create a state of internal division over the war with Israel, as is happening in the Gaza Strip.

The other message, according to Anbatawi, is to show that Israel is prepared to go to the extreme in targeting Hezbollah and Lebanon in general, which Israel sees as potentially pushing the party to back down from supporting the Gaza front and withdraw beyond the Litani River, a strategic goal for Israel to ensure the return of settlers to the northern settlements.

Despite the euphoria felt by the Israelis following the success of these security breaches and the targeting of Hezbollah’s communications networks, this euphoria quickly began to dissipate as they realized that entering into a comprehensive war would have major repercussions for Israel, especially in light of Hezbollah’s readiness to respond with strong operations.

According to Anbatawi, despite all the targeting and breaches, what happened can be overcome by Hezbollah in the near future, and Hezbollah has plans to wage war with Israel and respond in strong ways.

Anbatawi says: “Now Hezbollah and the resistance in Lebanon are facing a position of escalation to respond, but without reaching a comprehensive war with Israel and curbing its excesses. However, no one can predict whether things will escalate towards a comprehensive war and perhaps a regional one, especially since Hezbollah may not be able to remain silent about these attacks and provocations, which will make Netanyahu and his government respond more violently and send messages to the United States of America to enter the war.”

Anbatawi points out that Netanyahu is playing on the string of reaching the US elections in light of the growing chances of the Democratic Party to reach the presidency after Kamala Harris’s chances expanded, and the party’s fear of decreasing chances of success in light of the continuation of the war and the abstention of people of color and Arabs from voting for Harris, which Netanyahu and his system are fully aware of and are playing on this string without ignoring Netanyahu’s desire for Donald Trump to come to power. This does not mean that the Democrats are less brutal, but rather they are partners in the genocide and crimes from the beginning with their comprehensive support for the occupation, but they want to postpone the development of the war until after the election stage.