Kamala Harris's Chances of Success

Is it too early to decide the outcome of the US presidential election? Without a doubt, President Biden's chances of re-election were almost non-existent, and there is no doubt that he eventually reached this conclusion, which prompted him to withdraw from the presidential race. If it is too early to judge the chances of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, it is clear that they are now much better than Biden's. Let us look at the reasons that led to the narrowing of the large gap in opinion polls today, so that some of these polls now give Kamala Harris a slight advantage over Trump.

It seems clear that Harris' age itself gives her an initial boost, as many Americans from the Democratic Party, or from outside it, were genuinely concerned about Biden's ability to run the country efficiently, after signs of aging became clear on him, and regardless of his performance in the past four years. After the age factor worked against Biden, the situation has been reversed today and Trump's age has become one of the negative factors against him. The election battle will likely be limited to six states, given that most, if not all, of the other states have already decided on one candidate. These six states are three in the so-called Great Lakes region of the “Midwest”—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—and three in the Southeast and West, or the “Sun Belt”—Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Biden won all of these states by narrow margins in 2020, which would have given him a win over Trump, while Trump won five of these states, except for Nevada, in 2016, which would have given him the presidency. A closer look at these six states suggests that Harris’ chances of winning the southern states will be more difficult than the northern states, as the south now appears to be largely Republican, even with swing states like Arizona. Even former President Barack Obama failed to win in Georgia and Arizona, despite his great popularity, especially among black Americans in Georgia. Harris’s path to the presidency will therefore likely be determined by winning the three Midwestern states, which traditionally vote Democratic, if not always, and which contain the 44 electoral votes Harris will need to win to overtake Trump.

It is too early to judge the outcome of the US election, but Harris’s performance so far suggests she is on the right track, taking positions different from her president on Gaza and not attending Netanyahu’s speech to Congress.

This explains Harris’ focus on these states and her choice of Tim Walz as her running mate from Minnesota, one of the Midwestern states, although not one of the three swing states. However, a candidate from the Midwestern region, Walz, who carries the values and customs of that region, will help Harris win these states. Many expectations indicated that she would choose Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro to help her decide the outcome of this state in her favor, but Shapiro (who is Jewish) has a poor record on the Palestinian issue. As a young man, he volunteered to join the Israeli army and stood strongly against student protests against the war on Gaza. This does not mean that this was the reason that prompted her not to choose him, but most likely such a choice would have cost her the chance to win in Michigan, where there is a significant Arab community that stood against Biden because of his pro-Israel position in the war on Gaza. The “Uncommitted” movement formed by Arab Americans in Michigan against Biden began sending positive signals towards Harris after she preferred Walz over Shapiro, and after her different position with Biden regarding Gaza, in addition to her somewhat sympathetic position towards the student protests against the war. There is a feeling among many in the Arab region that “vinegar is the brother of mustard”, and that there is no difference between Harris and Trump, as both are pro-Israel. I completely disagree with this position. It is true that American policy will not change radically towards the Palestinian issue anytime soon, but it is also true that there is a qualitative shift in the Democratic Party among the youth wing, which is gradually approaching a serious recognition of the legitimate rights of the Palestinians, and that this shift must be invested in and encouraged until it reaches a stage that may result in a radical change in the Democratic Party’s position towards the Palestinian issue. It is also true that Trump's position is known for his blind support for Israel, his contempt for the Palestinians, and his intention to implement what he calls the "deal of the century" that will lead to the liquidation of the Palestinian cause, perhaps at the expense of Jordan.

It is too early to judge the outcome of the US elections, but Harris's performance so far shows that she is on the right track. She has also demonstrated a previously unknown rhetorical ability, in addition to her willingness to take positions that differ from her president regarding Gaza, to the point that she did not attend Netanyahu's speech in Congress under a flimsy pretext. The ongoing debate in the United States, including Trump's statement that she did not choose Shapiro because of his Jewish faith, regardless of its truth, shows that the Arab American voice has begun to be taken into account in the US presidential elections, for the first time.

Former Jordanian Foreign Minister