These ceasefire talks have been doomed to fail – Netanyahu and Hamas have tied negotiators’ hands

Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu is unlikely to accept any agreement with Hamas that will appear to give Hamas the ability to claim victory. Hamas will view and present any agreement with Israel that ends the war in Gaza, leads to the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza,  and releases Palestinian prisoners as victory and Israeli surrender. Beyond the substance of any potential agreement between the two sides, is the robust emotional juice of so much of the Israeli Palestinian relationship – the battle for national dignity and honor. A great deal of explosives has been dropped on Gaza by Israel since October 7, 2023 because of the humiliation felt by all Israelis, and especially Israel’s leaders and military.  So much of the war over more than ten months has been fought as a war of revenge. Nonetheless, the war also has major strategic consequences for Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian people, the nations of the region, and the world’s major powers – mainly the United States.

For most of the people of Israel, there is no victory without the return of the remaining 115 Israeli hostages in Gaza. Unfortunately, estimations are that a majority of those hostages may no longer be alive. Most were either killed by Hamas or by Israeli bombs and many of the dead hostages may be buried underneath the rubble of destroyed buildings. There is a likely possibility that some of those bodies may never be found and returned.  The ethos of Israel has very much been centered around the principle that no one is left behind. The world was stunned by Israel in 2011 when it released 1027 Palestinian prisoners of whom more than 300 had murdered Israelis in exchange for one Israeli soldier who was in Hamas captivity for more than five years. At the time, about 80% of Israelis supported that deal and 26 members of Netanyahu’s government voted in favor of the deal with only three ministers in opposition. That ethos seems now to be broken as we have seen Netanyahu of 2024 putting his impossible goal of total victory before the return of Israel’s hostages. No one can accuse Netanyahu of not wanting to bring the hostages home, but it seems quite clear that this is not his first priority. Most Israeli pundits believe that Netanyahu’s so-called total victory is more about extending the war for as long as possible in order to remain in power. Since the unprecedented failure of Israel to protect its citizens on October 7 last year under the watch of Netanyahu, the Prime Minister is once again rising in the polls and his base is growing, which a good part had deserted him after the Hamas attack, they are now falling back into the ranks of supporting him.

Netanyahu has handcuffed the Israeli mediators with conditions which appear impossible for Hamas to accept. These include no obligation to end the war, no full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, continued long-term Israeli military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border, and a security mechanism that would ensure than armed Hamas and other military personnel cannot move from the south of Gaza to the north of the Strip. In addition, Netanyahu is demanding a veto on the selection of Palestinian prisoners that will be released in the deal and he demands that those serving life sentences will be deported for life. These additional conditions are also unacceptable to Hamas. It is difficult to imagine that Netanyahu will make any deal with Hamas prior to the killing of the main Hamas leaders in Gaza, primarily YehyaSinwar. When the Israeli military finds Sinwar and kills him, there are likely to be Israeli hostages surrounding him and the underground bunker may be booby trapped with explosives and there will most likely be a fight to the death which may result with the death of Israeli soldiers and hostages as well as the Hamas leaders and their soldiers. There are no guarantees that hostages who are being held by other Hamas militants in other places of Gaza will not kill the hostages when their leader is killed.

The chances of successful Israeli-Hamas negotiations ride on the amount of leveraging that the mediators are willing to apply on both sides. The United States has significant power over Israel both by the political cover that the US provides Israel in the United Nations and by the ability to stop fueling the war by stopping the flow of bombs to Israel. The US could notify Israel that the US has Israel’s back if attacked by Iran or by Hezbollah, but it will no longer provide bombs for Israel to drop on Gaza.  The Biden administration most definitely has an interest to remove the Gaza war from the election campaign of Kamala Harris. Egypt and Qatar have significant leverage over Hamas by hosting the Hamas leadership in Doha, and Cairo providing the lifeline of the Gaza Strip.  There are also reported to be some 160,000 Gazans who escaped the horrors of the war in Gaza and who are overstaying their visas to be in Egypt. These represent most of the middle and upper class of Gaza. This is another point of leverage on Hamas or on the Palestinian people. 

At this point, more than ten months into the war with more than 40,000 people killed in Gaza and more than 1600 Israelis killed, this war must come to an end. There is no military solution to this conflict and there has never been one. There must be a new path to a negotiated end of this conflict, but it begins first by ending this war, Israel withdrawing from Gaza, Israeli hostages coming home, having a secure border between Gaza and Egypt, the creation of a responsible and legitimate non-Hamas government in Gaza, an Arab led international force in Gaza for a limited period of time, new elections in Palestine, new elections in Israel and then a regional based new peace process that will materialize the two states solution, with an end to the Israeli occupation, a free democratic Palestine, and freedom, peace and security for the people of Israel and Palestine. 

The writer is a political and social entrepreneur who has dedicated his life to peace between Israel and her neighbors. He is now the Middle East Director for ICO - International Communities Organization, a UK based NGO.