The New York Times reported that the United States is in the midst of an intense diplomatic campaign to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with growing risks that either side could start a broader regional battle.

According to the newspaper, “American officials in recent days have put pressure on their Israeli counterparts and conveyed messages to Hezbollah leaders with the aim of avoiding a broader regional conflict that they fear could drag Iran and the United States into it.”

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant met with several officials from the US Joe Biden administration in Washington last week to discuss the war in Gaza and the escalating tensions along Israel's northern border with Lebanon. This visit came in the wake of a visit last week by the Israeli National Security Advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi, and the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer.

Also last week, a senior White House official, Amos Hochstein (of Israeli origin), who assumed an unofficial diplomatic role to mediate between the two sides, visited Israel and Lebanon. Hochstein warned Hezbollah that the United States would not be able to restrain Israel if it committed to an all-out war with this armed group.

Israel and Hezbollah often exchanged fire along Israel's northern border. After October 7, and the start of the Israeli war on Gaza, Hezbollah began firing at Israel, especially against Israeli military targets in northern Israel, to show solidarity with Hamas.

The intensity of the fighting has intensified in recent weeks, and “the reduction in combat operations carried out by Israel in Gaza, where Hamas has been greatly weakened, has also freed up more of its forces in preparation for a possible attack in the north,” according to the newspaper.

“The nightmare scenario for American officials will be an escalation in which Iran and Israel directly exchange strikes for the second time. In another such round, the United States may not be able to control the mutual escalation as it did last April.”

Amos Hochstein (an official in the Biden administration) has become an unofficial mediator between Israel and Hezbollah. Currently, American officials believe that Israel and Hezbollah prefer a diplomatic solution.

According to press reports, Gallant told Biden administration officials during his visit last week that Israel does not want a large-scale war with Hezbollah, “but is prepared to strike the group hard if it is further provoked,” according to the newspaper.

Officials who met with Mr. Gallant included Hochstein, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and CIA Director William Burns.

The newspaper quotes David Schenker, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs in the Trump administration, as saying: “The United States’ priority is to stop the escalation, and neither side wants war.”

Hezbollah was formed with Syrian-Iranian assistance to fight the Israeli occupation of Lebanon after Israel invaded the country in 1982, and is now considered a formidable fighting force much larger than Hamas. The party possesses a missile arsenal consisting of tens of thousands of missiles and drones capable of destroying Israeli cities.

US intelligence agencies estimate that Hezbollah is intent on showing support for Hamas by launching cross-border strikes, but is trying to avoid giving Israel a pretext to launch a cross-border incursion.

It is noteworthy that the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Brown, stated upon Gallant’s arrival in Washington: “It is unlikely that the United States will be able to help Israel defend itself in a broader war that Hezbollah is waging against it, just as we helped Israel in Countering a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones last April.

American officials believe that the Israeli government is divided over the wisdom of opening a larger front in the north. Some Israeli officials, including Gallant, said after the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, that Israel should have responded by trying to destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah.

"Gallant's position has changed since then, according to US officials. The officials said that he now says that opening a new front would be unwise," according to the newspaper.

But American officials and analysts say the possibility of war spreading is still dangerously high.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing increasing political pressure to restore security in northern Israel, from which about 60,000 residents were evacuated. Many hope to return to the region before the start of the new school year next September, but most say they will not feel safe enough to return as long as Hezbollah attacks continue.

Adding to the risks is uncertainty between the United States, Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran about each other's true intentions.

“There is potential to de-escalate this latest escalation and move away from the brink,” warned Susan Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “But there are four actors engaged in a dangerous game of defiance.”

“Many in Washington and elsewhere have underestimated the current Iranian leadership’s ability to take risks,” she added.

For its part, Iran, on Saturday, issued a warning to Israel of a “war of annihilation” with the “full participation of the axis of resistance,” which includes Tehran and its regional allies, if it launched a “large-scale” attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Iranian mission to the United Nations stated on the “X” platform that Tehran considers “the Zionist entity’s propaganda about its intention to attack Lebanon as psychological warfare.”

But she added, “If a large-scale military attack is launched, a war of extermination will follow,” and stressed that “all options will be on the table, including “the full participation of the axis of resistance.”

American officials do not have any direct contact with Hezbollah because the United States considers it a terrorist group. Hochstein delivers his messages to party leaders through Lebanese Shiite politicians informally allied with the party.

Experts believe that any larger conflict between Israel and Lebanon could be devastating for both sides. Israel inflicted so much damage on Lebanon in 2006 that the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said he would not have carried out the operation that launched the war if he had known the damage. Which will happen. But Israel will also emerge stained with blood. Hezbollah claims it is capable of launching 3,000 rockets and shells per day, a barrage that would overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.

Even if Iran is not directly involved, its allies, including Shiite militias in Iraq and Houthi militants in Yemen, could escalate their attacks on Israel and American interests in the region.

Analysts and officials say that stopping the fighting in Gaza would be the surest way to defuse friction between Israel and Hezbollah. But the latest plan to stop the fighting approved by Biden and the Security Council has become doubtful in the wake of additional demands from Hamas and ambiguous statements made by Netanyahu.