Hebrew Media: What is behind Biden's threat to stop supplying weapons to Israel?

Eldad Shavit & Chuck Freilich

In recent weeks, the US administration, led by President Biden, has repeated its warnings that the Americans will not stand by and watch an Israeli operation in Rafah that does not present an implementable plan for the evacuation of the Palestinian population congregating in this region, and coordination in advance with the United States. Therefore, the decision to freeze the shipment of precision bombs, and Biden’s warnings that “if Israel continues to storm Rafah, we will stop supplying it with offensive weapons,” should not surprise us.

Biden says: "I made it clear to them that if they entered Rafah, and they have not entered it yet, I would stop the supply of weapons that were used in the past for confrontations in Rafah and confrontations in the cities." It is estimated that, in addition to the Rafah issue, the American administration is still concerned that Israel has not yet presented a clear political strategy for the “day after the war,” in contrast to the Biden administration, which is still committed to reaching a kidnapped deal that opens the door, in its view, to payment. Moving forward with a large-scale process of reshaping the regional architecture. Moreover, the categorical commitment to Israel's security that President Biden has shown from the first moment, and his widespread political and military support for it, allow him, in his opinion, to intervene and influence developments in a way that is consistent with the interests of the United States.

The electoral battle and the opposition of a portion of the Democratic electorate to the administration's policy are two components of this policy, but they are not the only reason for the US administration's decisions regarding Israel. Seven months after the war in Gaza, with the political hourglass running out on the international scene, and facing a scenario of a widespread security deterioration in the confrontation with Hezbollah, it is clear to everyone that Israel must continue to consider maintaining American support as a strategic goal that it cannot, Without it, the war's goals cannot be achieved in the long term, and in order to ensure that, it must take American interests into account. For its part, the US administration intends to continue its commitment to defending Israel's security, as was previously demonstrated in coordination and assistance in confronting the Iranian attack on April 14, and in approving a special aid package estimated at $14.5 billion.

Accordingly, Israel must adhere to its policy so far, coordinate its steps with the American administration, and realize that the administration’s steps do not mean the United States abandoning its support for Israel, but rather a real fear that without a deal, people will be kidnapped, and without presenting a clear political vision regarding "The day after the war." The alternative is the continuation of the war without the ability to translate it into a political process that guarantees achieving the goal of eliminating Hamas' ability to control the Gaza Strip. The administration cannot help with this matter, and there is a high probability that it will take other steps against Israel.