The Guardian newspaper published a report by its Washington correspondent, Julian Borger, in which he said that the Saudis are pushing a Plan B that excludes the Israelis from an important deal with the United States.

He added that Riyadh is seeking to achieve a modest deal with Washington, in the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of a Palestinian state, adding that the United States and Saudi Arabia have prepared draft agreements related to security and technology sharing, which are linked to a broader settlement in the Middle East between the Israelis and the Palestinians. However, in the absence of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Netanyahu’s opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state, and the determination to enter Rafah in southern Gaza, the Saudis are pushing for an alternative plan that excludes the Israelis.

 Based on this plan, the Americans and Saudis will sign a series of agreements on a bilateral defense treaty, in which the United States will help Saudi Arabia build a nuclear reactor for civilian purposes, and broad participation in artificial intelligence and other emerging technology.

An offer will be made to Israel for diplomatic normalization with Riyadh, in exchange for accepting the two-state solution and ending the 76-year-old conflict.

 However, Riyadh's Alternative Plan B will not be dependent on approval from the Netanyahu government. The newspaper quoted Firas Maqsad, director of strategic communication at the Middle East Institute in Washington, as saying: “There will be room for the less-for-less model, and that is why relations with the United States should not be hostage to the whims of Israeli politicians, or the Netanyahu government.”

Under this plan, the Biden administration will not obtain the historic regional settlement emerging from the ruins of Gaza, at least directly, but it will strengthen the strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia, and stop Chinese and Russian expansion in the region. It is not clear that the administration, as well as Congress, accepts the less-for-less model.

In his statements on Monday in Saudi Arabia, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken linked progress in Saudi-Israeli normalization attempts to moving toward a two-state solution.

He said, in a speech at the World Economic Forum: “The work that Saudi Arabia and the United States are doing together, and with regard to our agreements, is probably close to completion, as I think,” adding: “Moving towards normalization requires two things: calm in Gaza, and a reliable path towards statehood.” “Palestinian.”

The newspaper said that a change had occurred in the Biden camp, as the officials who were insisting, last week, on the inextricable connection between the American-Saudi agreements, Saudi-Israeli normalization, and the two-state solution, have become non-committal to the issue in recent days.

One of the goals of Blinken's trip to Riyadh was to complete the US-Saudi agreements, which administration officials describe as almost complete, but they made clear that they did not achieve a final breakthrough.

Maqsad, who was in Riyadh, said: “We are close, but they have not achieved the progress that puts us close to the finish line, which the Saudis were hoping for when Blinken attended.”

Initially, at least, the US-Saudi deal will be agreed upon independently of developments in Israel and the occupied territories, although an official offer will be made to Israel to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia with irreversible moves towards establishing a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank.

The United States hopes that the offer will become an issue in Israeli politics, especially after the elections that will follow the collapse of the Netanyahu government.

According to informed sources, the nuclear part of the US-Saudi deal will allow Riyadh a station through which refined uranium powder is converted into gas, without allowing Saudi Arabia to begin enriching uranium gas on its territory, which is an important check on the production of the nuclear bomb, although the Saudi Crown Prince proposed in The past is the idea of the spread of nuclear weapons, and that Saudi Arabia will seek to develop nuclear weapons if Iran possesses the bomb.

The agreements will contain a separate text for a defense treaty between the two countries. Maqsad said: “At a minimum, what will be asked of the Saudi side is similar to what the United States shares with South Korea, without Article 5 [NATO’s mutual defense clause], but a strong and formal commitment to defend the Kingdom’s territory.”

 The third part of the agreements includes the United States easing export restrictions imposed on computer chips used in developing artificial intelligence tools, which is an important element in Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to transform into a technology center for the region.

The three parts of the draft deal contain support for Saudi security.

Instead of progress on the path of Israeli-Palestinian peace, Saudi Arabia presents the agreements as a victory for the United States in its war against Iranian expansionism, and in the “great game of competition,” and with China in particular.

Saudi Arabia is steadily increasing the weapons it purchases from China, as it has tried to preserve its options in recent years. The United States was surprised when he announced the return of Saudi-Iranian relations under Chinese sponsorship. The Biden administration abandoned the policy of not communicating with Saudi Arabia, against the backdrop of the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, as the rapprochement culminated in Biden’s visit to Jeddah in 2022.

Christine Fontenrose, former director for Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, believes that the nuclear and artificial intelligence deals are “the first achievements of Biden’s visit to the Kingdom.” He said that the deals were drafted in the hope that the Saudis would put the normalization issue on the table, but “the Israelis attach importance to preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state, more than normalization with the Saudis, and this is the reason for discussing the deal bilaterally.”

The White House seems reluctant to offer more, in the absence of a normalization deal, which it believes may transform the nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and opposition will be strong to any deal with Saudi Arabia, due to its poor human rights record.

Fontenrose says: “If the deal did not include commitments from the Saudis regarding China and Iran, in exchange for security guarantees, Congress would ask: What will America gain from this?”

Maqsad believes that the “major power competition” clause should be sufficient for the Biden administration. “If you can shift Saudi Arabia towards the American strategic alliance in this part of the world, and in a way that marginalizes Russia and China, this will be an important victory for the administration,” and “it is what will strengthen the Middle East. And in the near future, as part of the American sphere.”

Even if this were enough for the White House, it would not be enough for the Senate, and without its approval, any agreements on artificial intelligence and nuclear technology would remain short-lived.

“Without Senate approval, it will not work,” said Matt Das, a foreign affairs adviser to former presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, who is now deputy director of the Executive Board of the Center for International Policy. Without the Israeli piece in it, it will not be successful.”

 He expressed his confusion about the American administration's obsession with this deal, which is not with Saudi Arabia, but with the person of the Crown Prince.