The statements of the Israeli leaders regarding the round of negotiations in Cairo for a ceasefire in Gaza, the talk that Tel Aviv is ready to pay high prices in order to return the detainees, and reports that the negotiations are witnessing a shift towards reducing the gaps in positions reflect the possibility that this will lead to a ceasefire and a possible exchange deal. 

In light of the talk about the noticeable progress in the negotiations, Israeli circles expressed cautious optimism about the possibility of reaching an exchange deal, as this optimism was reflected in the participation of the Israeli delegation headed by Mossad chief David Barnea in the Cairo negotiations with expanded powers, as well as flexibility in positions, whether for the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) or to Israel, according to what Israeli Channel 12 reported.

According to the Israeli channel, delegations from all parties left Cairo and will return within 48 hours to Egypt to discuss the exchange deal and the terms of the final agreement, noting that there is progress in the discussions and agreement on the basic points between all parties.

Yesterday evening, Monday, Haaretz newspaper quoted a senior foreign diplomatic source as saying, “Within the next 24 years, we will know whether progress can be achieved in the deal. There is cautious optimism.” This is a position expressed by many Israeli leaders who did not rule out the possibility of breaking through the impasse with a file. Negotiations and reaching a possible exchange deal, according to the newspaper.

Israeli Security Minister Yoav Galant said that military pressure on Hamas allows Israel to make "difficult decisions to return the kidnapped people." The minister believes that "Israel is at the right point, but there is another aspect that needs to be agreed upon in order to reach a deal."

The same position was expressed by the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, Herzi Halevy, who said, “The army is strong enough for Israel to know how to pay the price for the return of its sons and daughters. The army will know how to bear even the heavy price, and it will also know how to return and fight strongly.”

Picture 3: An agreement between Gallant and Army Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevy, regarding the price that Israel will pay for the deal, as well as the agreement to continue fighting in the future. (Photo by the Israeli Ministry of Security office, which circulated it for free use by the media)

An agreement between Gallant (left) and Halevy regarding the price that Israel will pay for the deal (Israeli Ministry of Security)

A fateful stage

The statements of the Israeli leadership from the coalition and the opposition were consistent among themselves, saying that the ceasefire negotiations and the exchange deal are witnessing a fateful stage. This is despite the fact that the distance to bring the deal into effect is still great, but Israel will be forced to make harsh and difficult decisions and pay high prices.

In exchange for these statements and the marathon meetings of the War Council and the Ministerial Council for Political and Security Affairs (the Cabinet) - which indicates the possibility of an exchange deal being near - the far-right parties conducted extensive consultations among themselves regarding their position on the conduct of the war on Gaza, and threatened to dismantle and overthrow the Netanyahu government if it was concluded. Deal.

In the face of the right-wing threats expressed by Bezalel Smotrich, head of the “Religious Zionism” coalition and Minister of Finance, and Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, head of “Jewish Greatness,” the opposition parties mobilized and announced their willingness to provide Netanyahu’s government with a temporary safety net in order to return the detainees held by Hamas. This is the position Which was expressed by the head of the opposition bloc, Yair Lapid.

The reason for the deal being closer than ever before - as Dana Weiss, the political affairs correspondent for Israeli Channel 12, says - is due to intense American pressure, after the administration of US President Joe Biden decided to fully engage in the file of ceasefire negotiations.

According to the Israeli newspaper, the White House has put pressure on Israel to increase humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip, reduce combat forces on the ground, and redeploy maneuvering forces, and on the other hand, it is pressuring Qatar in order to exercise its influence on Hamas to accept the terms of the deal.

It indicated that the mediators are already awaiting the parties’ response regarding Hamas’s demand for the return of the displaced to the northern Gaza Strip without restrictions, and for an increase in humanitarian aid trucks, provided that the Israeli occupation army continues to withdraw from city centers.

Crystallized agreement

Regarding the time frame of the deal, the Arab and Palestinian affairs correspondent for the Israeli Channel 12, Sapir Lipkin, reported that the mediators are exerting pressure for a possible ceasefire to enter into force during Eid al-Fitr this week.

According to the Israeli channel, the crystallized agreement includes increasing the number of humanitarian aid trucks entering Gaza from various land crossings, referring to Egypt’s announcement of increasing the number of trucks to 300 trucks per day, but there is a controversial point regarding how the aid will be distributed and who will supervise it.

The terms of the agreement also include ensuring temporary shelter for the residents of Gaza by introducing about 60,000 caravans for living and 200,000 tents as part of the first phase of reconstruction.

The big and important questions that accompany the negotiations remain the issue of the Israeli army’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, as the Israeli channel estimated that the withdrawal of maneuvering forces from Khan Yunis is an indication of that.

But Israel has made clear that it will not be ready for a complete withdrawal, while Hamas insists on a complete withdrawal and a complete cessation of the war as part of the deal, even if at a more advanced stage.

Cease-fire

As for the return of the displaced, Israel expressed its initial approval for the gradual return of 60,000 displaced people from the south of the Gaza Strip to the north, at a rate of only 2,000 per day, provided that this takes place two weeks after the start of the agreement.

On the other hand, Hamas insists on the full return of the displaced without restrictions, which so far represents a major obstacle to reaching an agreement.

Regarding Rafah, it was announced in Israel that the military operation in Rafah would not be abandoned, but in the event of a ceasefire - according to the Israeli channel’s assessment - the military attack may be postponed and not implemented in the near future.

Regarding the release of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli detainees, the recent Israeli reports did not refer to the issue numerically, as Hamas and the Israeli side used the phrase “a joint deal to release prisoners and abductees,” and the movement did not use the phrase “all for all” this time.

Source: Al Jazeera