In a long analytical article published by the American magazine Foreign Policy on Saturday, John Hoffman, a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute and an assistant professor at George Mason University, says that the special relationship does not benefit Washington and exposes American interests around the world to danger.

The researcher begins by referring to US President Joe Biden’s recent announcement that “there will be no return to the status quo in [the Middle East] as it was on October 6.” But the truth is that Biden refuses to abandon the status quo, especially regarding Washington's so-called special relationship with Israel.

Unwavering American support for Israel has been a constant element of US Middle East policy since the country's creation in 1948. President John Kennedy coined the phrase "special relationship" in 1962, explaining that Washington's relations with the country were "truly comparable only to the American-British relationship" on a wide range of global affairs,” and by 2013, Biden, then Vice President Obama, claimed, “This is not just a long-term moral commitment; it is a strategic commitment.”

According to Biden, “If there was no Israel, we would have to invent one.” In 2020, President Donald Trump cut through some of the fog, admitting that “we don't have to be in the Middle East, other than we want to protect Israel.”

The core of the relationship between the United States and Israel is the unprecedented aid support that Washington gives to its ally, as Israel is the largest recipient of US military aid, having received more than $300 billion (adjusted for inflation) from the United States since World War II.

Washington continues to provide Israel with approximately $3.8 billion annually, in addition to other arms deals and security benefits. (Some other major recipients of US aid, such as Egypt and Jordan, receive large sums in exchange for maintaining normal relations with Israel.) Israel and its supporters have great influence in Washington, commanding attention on both sides of the political aisle (Democrat and Republican) through various forms of direct and indirect pressure and influence.

When wondering what exactly the United States will get in exchange for this one-way relationship, the questioner discovers that there is no clarity at all on this issue. Supporters claim that consistent support is critical to advancing American interests in the Middle East. For example, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-NC) once referred to Israel as “America’s eyes and ears” in the region. While intelligence sharing may have some strategic value, the past five months of the war in Gaza have demonstrated the many negative effects of this relationship, specifically how Washington's unconditional embrace of Israel has undermined its strategic position in the Middle East while damaging its global image.  The war has starkly highlighted the fundamental failures of US policy in the Middle East.

“It is time for a fundamental reassessment of the relationship between the United States and Israel,” says researcher John Hoffman.

“Israel’s campaign of collective punishment in Gaza was historic in scale,” Hoffman explains. “According to Gaza health authorities, the official death toll across the Strip now stands at approximately 32,000 people, the vast majority of whom are women and children.” The US Secretary of Defense has claimed Lloyd Austin recently estimated that only 25,000 women and children were killed as a result of the war in Gaza. And while some, including Biden himself, have expressed concern about whether the casualty figures coming out of Gaza are exaggerated, others believe that the death toll is likely to be higher. “Because the ongoing hostilities prevent researchers from determining the fate of thousands of people whose fate or whereabouts are unknown.”

It is noteworthy that throughout the besieged Gaza Strip, civilian infrastructure has been systematically destroyed, and famine and disease are spreading rapidly. The situation inside Gaza is so bad that the US government - along with other countries, such as France, Jordan and Egypt - is now airlifting aid into the Strip, and the United States is deploying 1,000 soldiers to build a pier off the coast of Gaza in order to break the siege that its supposed ally - using American weapons - refuses to lift.

Despite this, the Biden administration has continued to supply Israel with advanced weapons — including smart and “dumb” bombs as well as tank and artillery munitions — and has approved more than 100 foreign military sales to Israel since October 7, 2023, and has used the state of emergency on two different occasions to circumvent On Congress. The United States recently issued its veto for the third time in the United Nations Security Council since the start of the conflict, being the only country to prevent the issuance of a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire on humanitarian grounds. This is in addition to another $14 billion in military aid to Israel recently approved by the Senate.

Hoffman says: “It is difficult to understand that this war could escalate to the worst, but all indicators point in this direction, as Israel insists that it will continue its incursion into the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, despite the objections of the United States, where more than 1.5 million people reside. 

It is noteworthy that the Biden administration has been saying that it opposes the invasion of Rafah “without a reliable and implementable plan to ensure the safety and support of civilians.” In an interview with MSNBC on March 8, Biden spoke of a “red line” in response to a question about a possible military operation in Gaza, saying: “[We cannot] kill another 30,000 Palestinians,” but he stated that “the defense of Israel remains crucial, so there is no red line.” This contradiction not only negates Biden's influence, but also binds Washington to whatever policies Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right government ultimately adopts.

Unsurprisingly, Netanyahu remains adamant that he will not yield to Biden's ethereal red line by canceling his plan for a ground invasion of Rafah. Netanyahu recently stated that he made it “very clear” to Biden that he is “determined to complete the elimination of these brigades in Rafah, and the only way to do that is by landing on the ground.”

Israel has not demonstrated any long-term political strategy in Gaza beyond the systematic destruction of the Strip and the killing of its residents. Netanyahu - whose support is at an all-time low and who faces growing protests calling for early elections - appears to know that once these elections are over, his time in power is over.

However, Biden has been either unable or unwilling to take advantage of the special relationship with Israel or influence Netanyahu, who has previously boasted of his ability to manipulate the United States.

The White House has begun strategically leaking reports of Biden's growing "frustration" with Netanyahu, and the administration has become more vocal in its support for a temporary halt to the fighting. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer made an unprecedented public condemnation of Netanyahu on March 14, saying he had "lost his way" while also calling for new elections in Israel.

But empty rhetoric without policy change will achieve nothing.

Symbolic actions - such as the recent US executive order imposing sanctions on two Israeli settlement outposts in the West Bank or Biden's decision to re-establish the position that Israeli settlement expansion is “contrary to international law” - will not stop the carnage in Gaza, and exonerate Washington. Complicity or contribution to future stability.

Most likely, in direct response to these actions, Israel has just permitted the construction of 3,400 new housing units in West Bank settlements amid historic levels of violence against Palestinians; the United States did little to punish or stop the move.

Netanyahu's recently unveiled post-war plan contains only a plan for a prolonged military occupation of Gaza and the West Bank, which would guarantee future instability. Since October 7, Netanyahu has repeatedly boasted that he is “proud” to have prevented the establishment of a Palestinian state, and promised that he alone can continue to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.

In contrast to Netanyahu's plan, the Biden administration's plan for the next day includes a vision of a "path" toward establishing a Palestinian state. However, it is worth noting that it does not contain concrete plans, let alone the intention of implementation by the United States or Israel.

“The war in Gaza should demonstrate that trying to ignore the future of the Palestinian people is a foolish strategy,” Hoffman says. “But for Netanyahu — and therefore for Biden — it has deepened commitment to this status quo.”

He adds, "Washington's steadfast support for Israel amid the war in Gaza has had disastrous regional repercussions. From the eastern Mediterranean to the Red Sea, there are a series of various points of tension that threaten to drag the region - and the United States - into a full-scale war. In addition, Washington's support the continuing brutal Israeli campaign in Gaza has tarnished Washington's image as a star of liberal values, making claims about the US-led "liberal international order" a mockery.

“A regional war would be disastrous for the Middle East and US interests. Nor would such a war be a matter of Israel’s survival. No country – including Iran – is about to push Israel into the sea. Israel’s military superiority, nuclear arsenal, and strategic alliance "With the majority of governments in the region, their security is guaranteed in the face of existential challenges."

Washington's position allows Israel to act with impunity while distorting US foreign policy in the Middle East in pursuit of goals that go beyond Washington's interests. US interests in the region include protecting the safety and prosperity of the American people and preventing the emergence of a regional hegemon while preserving the values the country claims to stand for. Knee-jerk support for Israel advances none of these things.

The imbalance in the special relationship with Israel has hampered Washington's ability to strategically maneuver in the Middle East and hampered the ability of American leaders even to think clearly about the region. In late 2023, for example, Biden denigrated his country when he declared that “if there were no Israel, no Jew in the world would be safe.”

“This kind of thinking makes it impossible to manage the relationship properly and productively,” Hoffman says.

For example, according to Hoffman, the asymmetric US relationship with Israel has hampered Washington's ability to engage diplomatically with Iran while pushing the United States toward the use of military force there.

Over the past five months, Israel has repeatedly tried to pressure the United States into a direct confrontation with Iran, even though this constitutes anathema to American interests and regional stability. High-level military exercises between Israel and the United States, the recent Israeli attack on major gas pipelines in Iran, and ongoing escalation between Iranian- and US-backed groups across the Middle East threaten to ignite a region-wide catastrophe.

The researcher explains that Washington's engagement with Israel - like any other country - must be driven by the pursuit of tangible American interests. Even U.S. relations with treaty allies, such as France or South Korea, are characterized by the debates, disagreements, and natural push-and-pull of diplomacy. By contrast, the special relationship with Israel has fueled some of the worst actors in Israeli politics, encouraged destructive policies, and generally caused violence to the long-term benefit of both countries.

He explains, “Washington’s support for Israeli policies has insulated Israel from the costs of those policies. What incentive does Israel face to change its course when the most powerful country in the world refuses to impose conditions on its deep levels of political, economic, and military support? If Israel is forced to bear the full costs of its policies in the West Bank.” Western powers, for example, will become more difficult to support their pro-settler agenda.

He asserts, “The special relationship with Israel does almost nothing for the United States while effectively undermining American strategic interests and often leading to violence against the values that Washington claims to defend...It is time to ‘normalize’ the US relationship with Israel. This does not It means making Israel an enemy of the United States, but it means dealing with Israel in the same way that Washington should deal with any other foreign country: from a distance.”

The researcher concludes by concluding, “Decisions regarding military aid, arms sales, or diplomatic cover are no longer rooted in path dependence or muscle memory, but rather in officials’ perceptions of the American interests at stake. Instead of enabling, protecting, and supporting Israeli policy, the United States must redirect its relationship.” With Israel on the basis of tangible American interests, this requires Washington to end its willingness to turn a blind eye to Israeli insults to American interests, by providing massive amounts of aid, and by pressing for a quick end to this disastrous war and reaching a lasting political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

In his last statement, he says: “The Biden administration faces a choice: either continue to follow the Netanyahu government into the abyss, or put strong pressure on it to change its course.”