Israeli News Paper: The return of the kidnapped or all-out war? A horror scenario could come true

By Danny Citrinowicz

There is a direct relationship to the dangerous escalation that has prevailed on the northern border in recent days with Hassan Nasrallah’s speech. The party’s refusal to abandon its equation, which states that as long as the Israeli army is fighting Hamas in Gaza, the party will fight Israel on the northern border, leads to the fact that so far there is no political solution on the horizon that guarantees the return of residents to their homes, and a ceasefire on the part of the party.

Although the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is taking place on the Lebanese border, the party’s position practically links the future of the war in the north to reaching a possible consensus between Hamas and Israel regarding a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, and while there are no signs of achieving this ceasefire. On the horizon, it is expected that the clash in the north will continue, and even escalate. No negotiations can begin on any kind of settlement in the north as long as the war in Gaza is raging.

Despite the painful blows that the party has received since October 8, and the heavy price it pays (which exceeds 200 party members killed), to the detriment of it (evidence of this is Nasrallah’s statements in his speech yesterday regarding the need to maintain information security (In order to reduce Israel's capabilities to strike the organization), it seems that it is still committed to standing alongside the axis of resistance, and will continue to work to disperse the Israeli army forces so that they are not able to direct all their war efforts against the Hamas movement in Gaza. This reality leads to the assumption that the party will not stop its war in the north, no matter what Israel does, and that, according to Nasrallah’s statements yesterday, it is fully prepared to expand the scope of the confrontation if Israel so desires.

When ceasefire options are absent from the horizon, in light of the fierce and daily confrontations that Hezbollah is waging against the army, and in parallel with the internal Israeli pressure on the government to ensure the return of the residents of the northern settlements to their homes, the potential for the situation to deteriorate becomes higher, and appears through escalation in the statements of both parties. The fact that Hezbollah operates among the civilian population, and does not hesitate to strike civilian towns in northern Israel, represents a guaranteed recipe for a “slippage” that leads to civilian casualties, and as a result, the turmoil of mutual responses between the two parties escalates.

Thus, in the absence of a political mechanism that can guarantee an end to the fighting, and with both sides literally playing with fire, it seems that deterioration has become almost inevitable, and this is happening specifically now, because the possibilities of reaching an agreement between Israel Hamas has become very low. What appears now, after more than 100 days of confrontation in the north, is that the ability to control the “escalation of the flames” is eroding.

In conclusion, the reality in the north “attracts” the two parties to a confrontation, even though they apparently have no interest in it. It is true that Hezbollah faces strong internal opposition in Lebanon, an opposition that should not be underestimated, and many parties in the state greatly fear that the clash will turn into a very destructive war, into which the party will lead the Lebanese state. However, Hezbollah’s steps indicate that it is disturbed by leaving Hamas is more afraid of entering the war alone in the battle against Israel. Thus, in light of the lack of prospects for reaching a deal that guarantees a ceasefire in Gaza, and in light of the ongoing escalation in military activities in the north during the past days, and despite the desire of both parties to maintain the existing “equations,” it seems that it will be difficult to prevent the next stage of escalation between the two parties.