The British Economist magazine says that the Middle East is currently experiencing a frightening period, but after death and hell peace may come, adding that there is a modest but increasing possibility of turning the disaster into an opportunity, as the administration of President Joe Biden is working hard to achieve this.

The magazine explained in a long report that prominent American figures are moving these days between Washington and European and Middle Eastern capitals for a direct goal, which is to secure a long humanitarian pause in the fighting in Gaza, lasting for a month or two, and allowing the exchange of hostages, Another, more ambitious goal is to transform this pause into a permanent ceasefire and secure a regional peace agreement.

The regional agreement package, according to the report, will include Israel’s acceptance of a Palestinian state, Saudi recognition of Israel, Palestinian reform, and American measures to “sweeten” the deal.

Before Ramadan and before the presidential elections

The report added that Washington wants to implement the first goal before the advent of the holy month of Ramadan on the tenth of next March, and to achieve the second goal before the US presidential elections next November.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warns of an “incredibly turbulent time” in the Middle East, saying: “We have not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we face now throughout the region since at least 1973.”

The report indicated that senior American officials visit the region successively. Brett McGurk, Biden's Middle East adviser, was in the region last week, and William Burns, the CIA director, was in Paris on January 28 to consult with figures from Israel, Egypt and Qatar and coordinate the hostage deal. Blinken is expected to return to Middle East again in the coming days, and Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, is working to communicate with Saudi and other leaders.

Nested boxes and keys

In its report, The Economist invited readers to think of the problem as a set of overlapping squares: the key to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a “two-state solution,” with a Palestinian state alongside Israel; The key to the two-state solution is the Saudi normalization deal. The key to Saudi normalization is ending the war in Gaza. The key to ending the war in Gaza is the hostage agreement.

It said the Biden administration is now speaking more clearly about the need for a “credible, irreversible, and time-bound” Israeli commitment to a Palestinian state. It also wants an early down payment, and may want a withdrawal from some West Bank lands or a real cessation of settlements.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that Britain would consider recognizing a temporary Palestinian state before reaching a final agreement, and Blinken is said to be considering such an option.

Create a contact group

The Economist added that America is considering establishing a “contact group” to pressure for reform of the Palestinian Authority, including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and perhaps Turkey and Qatar.

Arab officials say Jordan could oversee security sector training, while Gulf states could help with administrative reforms. The hope in Gaza is that eventually enough former Gaza policemen - who are currently on Palestinian Authority salaries - can be retrained to take over, but the process will take several months.

Source: Economist + Aljazeera