Ignatius on Gaza: A long truce and gradual withdrawal for the Israelis?

By Iman Shams

American political analyst and writer David Ignatius expected an “inflection point” in the Gaza war that would include the resumption of negotiations on the release of hostages with Hamas and a ceasefire for several weeks, followed by a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces, especially from the northern Gaza Strip.

Although Israeli planning remains unclear, Ignatius believed that Israeli officials have come to realize the need to move to a new phase of the conflict, including allowing reserve soldiers to leave the front lines and return to their jobs. They agree with the Biden administration on the following basics:

- Preventing Hamas from imposing its political will in Gaza after the war.

- That other Palestinians, perhaps from the Palestinian Authority, assume responsibility for governance.

- That a peacekeeping force be formed, supported by the main moderate Arab countries.

- And that the transitional authority should in fact be the “Gaza Reconstruction Authority.”

Transition process at the beginning of January

Ignatius indicated that the Biden administration is pressing for a transition to this stage before the end of the year, to avoid more civilian casualties, while some Israeli officials are talking about a transitional process in January or after, noting that the US State Department has already prepared an approximately 20-page document outlining Key steps and options for the post-conflict phase, including for Palestinians to assume new roles in governance and security, with the support of moderate Arab governments.

American political analyst and writer David Ignatius predicted an “inflection point” in the Gaza war that would include the resumption of negotiations on the release of hostages with Hamas and a ceasefire for several weeks, followed by a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces, especially from the northern Gaza Strip.

Although the situation on the battlefield in Gaza is far from resolved, Ignatius quotes Israeli leaders as believing that Hamas' command and control structure in northern Gaza has been divided, and that this leadership is unable to communicate effectively with key Hamas political and military leaders such as Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad Deif, holed up in the south, perhaps near Khan Yunis. Since killing them, one of Israel's primary war aims, is a task complicated by the possibility that they may have surrounded themselves with some of the remaining Israeli hostages, this presents the same dilemma as before in Israel's stated goals: crushing Hamas and saving the lives of the hostages. This is a dilemma that has complicated Israeli military planning since the beginning of the war with the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7.

In Ignatius' opinion, the transition to the next stage can be observed from the following developments:

- Israeli and American officials seek to resume dialogue with Hamas, through Qatar, to release the largest possible number of Israeli hostages.

- Israeli officials are considering extending the ceasefire, perhaps for two weeks, to allow Hamas to collect these hostages and hand them over to safety.

- The possibility of Israel pledging to withdraw its forces and carry out confrontation operations, especially in the north, after the end of the ceasefire, as it wants the freedom to calm down in stages, as circumstances allow.

- American and Israeli officials agreed on the necessity of taking urgent measures to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and to limit the international community’s severe criticism of the two countries due to the number of Palestinian civilian deaths, which is approaching 20,000 people.

- The Israeli authorities fear the possibility of diseases spreading in Gaza, despite their belief that the cholera outbreak has been controlled.

Ignatius quoted a senior official in the administration of US President Joe Biden as believing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will accept American pressures to move to a phase of calm.

“Humanitarian islands” south of Gaza?

Ignatius pointed out that Israel's plan to host a huge camp in Al-Mawasi, just north of the Egyptian border, had failed to host hundreds of thousands of refugees from the north, due to the intense fighting in southern Gaza. He said that Israeli officials are now considering creating so-called "humanitarian islands" in the northern Gaza Strip to attract Palestinians fleeing violence.

One problem remains unresolved, and has not even been discussed in detail, according to Ignatius: the formation of the security force that will maintain order in Gaza once Israeli forces begin to withdraw. Israeli commandos may launch raids into central Gaza when they receive intelligence information about high-value targets. But this will not protect Palestinian civilians from the gangs and thieves who already fill the security vacuum. The security force may initially consist mainly of Palestinians not associated with Hamas and willing to cooperate with Israeli forces still cordoning off the border. This security force may be reinforced by foreign forces operating under a United Nations mandate. In light of the chaos that will prevail in Gaza after the war, there will be a need for forces that are disciplined and experienced, and whose rules of engagement allow them to use military force if necessary.

Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Dahlan

In the long term, Ignatius added, when “the next day” finally comes, American and Israeli officials hope that the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will be able to play a key role in providing the money, leadership, and legitimacy for Gaza’s reconstruction. He said that both countries have reasons to contribute to the renaissance of Gaza:

- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought to demonstrate visionary leadership in the Arab world.

- Normalizing relations with Israel, while at the same time supporting the establishment of a well-governed Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, would indeed be wise.

The UAE will bring special skills, as it is the first Arab country to join the Abraham Accords. It enjoys the confidence of the Israelis. Emirati companies, such as Emaar, have experience in managing the huge construction projects that Gaza will need. For more than 10 years it housed Mohammed Dahlan, who was the dominant political force in Gaza until Hamas overthrew the Palestinian Authority in 2006.

Ignatius quoted a senior official in the administration of US President Joe Biden as believing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will accept American pressures to move to a phase of calm. As the shock of October 7th subsides slightly, it is time for Israel to move to a phase of this war where Palestinian civilians are less vulnerable to attacks, more Israeli hostages can be released, and begin planning for what will be a massive rebuilding of Gaza’s devastated landscape and the broader political system in the Middle East.

Source: Assas Media