Foreign Policy magazine said in an analysis on Monday that Saudi Arabia has tools in its diplomatic arsenal that, if it uses them correctly, will have a say in shaping the future of the Palestinian issue.

The magazine believes that oil is no longer an effective tool in pressuring the United States and Israel.

The magazine explained that Riyadh is leading a diplomatic effort aimed at generating an international discourse that questions the legitimacy of the Israeli military aggression and the diplomatic cover that the United States provides to Israel.

According to the magazine, “The ruling elites in Saudi Arabia not only reject the Israeli self-defense argument, but they are also turning to a diplomatic attack, as the Saudi Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan, heads a diplomatic committee authorized by the League of Arab States and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to tour international different capitals and calling for an immediate ceasefire."

The magazine notes that the committee's first stop was in Beijing and then Moscow, explaining that this was a clear signal to Washington that Saudi Arabia has other options in this constantly evolving multipolar world.

In addition, the magazine believes that the presence of the committee in the United Nations and the ongoing proposals from the Arab Islamic Group aim to maintain diplomatic pressure on the United States, by highlighting it as an obstacle standing in the way of a ceasefire.

The magazine states, “It was not long ago that most of the world was focused on a big deal in the Middle East between the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, but the current situation of death, destruction, and catastrophe (in Gaza) unfolding before our eyes makes that something very distant. It has dissipated.” "The enthusiasm surrounding the issue of (potential) Saudi-Israeli normalization in the few weeks and months preceding the war."

It says, "While some observers were surprised by the ferocious attacks launched by Hamas on October 7 and the outbreak of a major war, others have long feared the outbreak of such violence, and because of the desperate desire of both Israel and the United States to see a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, The unresolved and volatile Palestinian issue has been largely ignored.

According to the report, both Israel and the United States had their own reasons for pressing for normalization. “For Washington, and especially President Joe Biden, being the mediator in such a major deal would cement his legacy in history and provide a necessary diplomatic talking point for the 2024 election campaign.”

As for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “Recognition of Israel by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - the guardian of the Two Holy Mosques - would be a strategic victory. If Saudi Arabia agrees to normalize relations with Israel, there will not be much pressure on the Netanyahu government, or any future Israeli government.” To ensure significant concessions and facilitate a political settlement that promises security for both Palestinians and Israelis.

“Once the war broke out, there was an ominous feeling that a humanitarian catastrophe was about to happen, and there was no doubt that the Arab countries would condemn Israel. What is less clear is how the Arab countries would use their influence. The energy landscape has changed dramatically since 1973, and thus the “oil card” would not have had much impact today, according to the analysis.

The Saudis are also using a neglected diplomatic tool, which is silence, as the magazine explained, noting that their explicit rejection of any political discussion before the ceasefire also generates pressure by not allowing Israel a clear political horizon after the election campaign. As the Saudi foreign minister said last month: “What future can we talk about when Gaza is destroyed?”

The magazine believes that the ruling elites in Saudi Arabia have another reason to avoid any discussion about the future of Gaza, which is that they believe that presenting this idea will not help in reaching a permanent ceasefire, and could be considered complicity or participation in giving the current Israeli campaign legitimacy.

The magazine points out that while Riyadh has real influence when it comes to financing, Israel will never be able to match the financial capacity of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The Israeli economy is suffering, and according to a recent report by the Bank of Israel, it has been losing $600 million weekly since the beginning of this war. The Israeli Central Bank also predicted that the costs of the war from 2023 to 2025 will reach about $53 billion.

This is precisely what gives the Saudis, the GCC and Arab states leverage, as any reconstruction efforts can be used to push Israel towards a real peace process. Otherwise, it will only be a matter of time until the region finds itself in the same situation again - if not worse.

The magazine says, “The Saudis have never been opposed to providing financial support to the Palestinians, and they have provided a great deal of it over the past decades, and it does not seem that this support will abate soon. What the Saudis hate is rebuilding destroyed Gaza for the sake of Israeli security - especially since Israel has been the party who carried out the destruction?

The report notes, “There is currently unrealistic wishful thinking, in Israel and Washington, that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries will foot the bill for the Israeli military campaign in Gaza. According to a leak to the Israeli press, Netanyahu reportedly told a parliamentary committee on 11 December: “The first step in Gaza will be the defeat of Hamas. After that, I think the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will support the rehabilitation of the Strip.”

The assumption that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will easily agree to pay for the reconstruction of an inherited disaster, and then bear responsibility for their security, exposes the naive illusions promoted by many in Israel and the West. Western and Israeli discourses often portray the GCC states as irrational actors who spend first and think later, as if the only function of the GCC states in the global system is to throw money at other countries’ problems. This is far from reality. At the time Presently, nothing is spent in Saudi Arabia unless it serves the interest of the Kingdom; “Saudi Arabia first” is the principle on which Saudi foreign policy is based.

One of the difficulties facing raising Saudi funds for reconstruction efforts is that Saudi Arabia itself is going through its own rebuilding process.

The magazine says: “Currently, the country (Saudi Arabia) has set upon itself the huge task of restructuring the state, and building mega projects that are critical to the Vision 2030 initiative, with the hope of eventually diversifying the Saudi economy away from oil to ensure the state’s survival.” "For future generations...the Saudis have the money, but it is earmarked for investing in the future of Saudi Arabia. However, this does not mean that the Saudi ruling elites are not prepared to invest in the future Palestinian state and contribute significantly to rebuilding its infrastructure."

“It is possible to increase the incentives provided to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to contribute to the reconstruction of Gaza if it is implemented in the right way, within the right framework, on the right horizon, and with the right goals. Among these common goals is regional security. This war has shown that The Palestinian issue can no longer be swept under the rug.”

This war has also shown that the risk of proliferation – from the Lebanese-Israeli border to Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen – has the potential to destabilize the entire region. This regional threat could serve as leverage for the Saudis against Israel and as an incentive to seek lasting peace.

“Regional prosperity” is a term commonly used by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It is precisely from this angle that one can see Saudi investment in restructuring Gaza, but only as part of a political process with clear political horizons that seeks to resolve the fundamental issues of this conflict. Saudi Arabia already has leverage over Israel by not offering normalization, but Riyadh's leadership of the reconstruction effort only amplifies Saudi political influence over Israel, because without effective infrastructure in Gaza, Israel's security concerns will increase.