Gershon Baskin
Hamas accepted another partial deal which as I understand it, they were forced into by the Qatari and Egyptian mediators, which very strong backwinds coming from Washington that were generated in Jerusalem. Hamas wanted an “end of war deal” in which they were prepared to release all of the 50 Israeli hostages in 24-48 hours, in exchange for ending the war, full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners and Palestinian hostages, and a very large increase of humanitarian aid.
I have been in daily communication over the past couple of weeks with the mediators and the Hamas negotiating time, pushing hard for a deal to end the war. I learned that Hamas was very intent on reaching a comprehensive deal and that they rejected the idea of another partial deal – mainly because they do not trust that Israel will comply with continuing to negotiate beyond the 60 days and to enter into real negotiations to end the war. This is what happened with the previous ceasefire that went into force when Trump entered the Oval Office. According to that deal, the parties were supposed enter into negotiations for a sustained ceasefire by day 15 and to conclude those negotiations by day 30. But those negotiations never started and it was clear that Netanyahu never had any intention to continue the ceasefire. The war resumed one week following the end of the ceasefire. That was way back in March of this year.
In my talks with Hamas I told them what I heard from the American side – that the United States would support the end of the war if Hamas released all of the hostages, if they agreed to some form of de-militarization (which the American side said can be defined in a way that Hamas could accept), and that a new non-Hamas Palestinian government be up and running before Israel withdraws completely from Gaza. Hamas seemed prepared to accept those conditions as well as a no-entry perimeter zone along the Gaza-Israel border with Israeli troops on the Israeli side of the border with orders to shoot anyone who enters the zone. Hamas also said that they would be more flexible on the issue of Palestinian prisoners.
Throughout the last two weeks I have been pushing Hamas to submit to the Qatari Prime Minister (Sheikh Mohammed) the Hamas proposal for the “end of war deal”. They did not do that. Yesterday morning I received the following message from Hamas: “Until now there is no sign of acceptance of the Americans or the Israelis or the mediators for the comprehensive deal”. My response to that was: “you are not negotiating with Israel, nor the Americans - you have been negotiating with yourselves (thinking about what the response of Israel will be). It is clear that Israel does not want an “end of war deal” and Trump won’t get serious until he sees that Hamas is serious - they are waiting for a serious Hamas proposal to be delivered to Sheikh Mohammed. I am not making this up - this is what they told me several times in phone calls and told me this. Please take my advice. I know what is going on behind the scenes. I know what are the chances of reaching an agreement with Israel. Really Trump is the only person who can force Israel to end the war. Remember the window of opportunity is open only until the tanks start moving into Gaza city.” In my phone conversations with Hamas, I tried to explain that what prompted Trump to give Netanyahu the greenlight to escalate (as Trump put it: Israel will do what Israel needs to do) was seeing the two videos of the two Israeli hostages being starved to death. My message to Hamas was: feed the hostages, not once for the video, but from now until they are released. Many times, during the last days, I kept telling them: Feed the hostages – if one of them dies from starvation, you lose any chance of getting Trump to pressure Israel to end the war. Trump feels personal responsibility and a personal connection to the hostages and their families. Hamas tried to say we take good care of the hostages, which I said is an outrageous claim – seeing those videos and seeing the condition of the released hostages. Then they said that this is what Israel is doing to the Palestinian prisoners inside of Israeli prisons – which is correct. We saw how emaciated and weak Marwan Barghouthi looked standing in front of Ben Gvir. And we have seen videos of Palestinian prisoners who were released in the previous deal. Hamas also said that the people of Gaza are starving, which is also correct, but I said once again, that they lost the support of Trump when he saw those videos and the Americans told me that if the Israeli hostages die in captivity they can forget about American support.
After the deal was announced last night, I contacted Hamas and asked them why they did not present their proposal to end the war. Why did they give Netanyahu the victory that will allow him to continue the war? The response that I received this morning was: “we found that the position of the Egyptians and the Qataris, and even Sheikh Mohammed, is with the partial deal, and they even consulted the Americans and said that they are with the partial deal, and that the comprehensive deal will now be almost impossible because Israel is imposing very difficult conditions that cannot be accepted, so we no longer have any choice but to continue with the partial deal.” Hamas was strong-armed into this deal, by the mediators and even by the other Palestinian factions. In Cairo Hamas held a meetings with representatives of other Palestinian factions who all supported the partial deal. They also met with the people from the Palestinian Reform Stream – the group supported by Mohammed Dahlan. The head of this group was recorded saying that Hamas should accept the deal on the table, even without reading it because the people of Gaza need this to end.
My response to Hamas this afternoon was: “Without firm US guarantees for ending the war Netanyahu will renew it after the 60 days ceasefire. If you want it to end, Hamas has to do two main things: feed the remaining hostages and give them medical treatment / don’t let them die, and make sure that there is a new Palestinian government in Gaza - not on paper but actually working.”
It seems that Israel will accept the deal. Israel will have to release 140 Palestinian prisoners serving life-sentences for killing Israelis. Israel will release another 60 Palestinian prisoners sentenced to more than 15 years. Israel will release about 190 bodies of Palestinians being held by Israel in return for 19 bodies of Israeli hostages. And Israel will release about another 1000 prisoners from Gaza (I assume that these will not include members of the Hamas Nukhba force). Humanitarian aid will be increased to 600 trucks a day including fuel, water, generators, and medical supplies. The Rafah crossing is supposed to be opened for two-way movement. It is not clear what kind of inspections will be at the crossing. I assume that Israel will totally reject that the crossing will be open without some form of reliable security checks. Maybe it will all go via the Kerem Shalom crossing point for Israeli security to do the checking.
In my opinion this is not a good deal -not for Israel and not for Gaza. But it is the deal that Hamas has approved and now it is in the hands of Netanyahu to accept it. Since Netanyahu wants to have the ability to continue the war beyond the 60 days, it is incumbent on the mediators (Qatar, Egypt and the USA) to ensure that the conditions are created for ending the war completely before the 60 days of ceasefire end. Hamas must feed the remaining hostages and give them proper medical attention – it can be done by the International Committee of the Red Cross which Hamas should be forced to accept. Hamas and the other Palestinian factions have to ensure that there is a new non-Hamas Palestinian government up and running before the end of 60 days. If these conditions are met, President Trump must then instruct Netanyahu to end the war. This seems to be the only way that all of the hostages will be returned home to Israel and that the war will finally end. Have no doubts, both sides will claim victory which is totally absurd because it is so clear that both sides have lost.
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Another Bad Deal