What the day after the war looked like?

Many conversations deal with the day after the Gaza War, some of them in closed rooms in Washington, Tel Aviv, Brussels, London, and some Arab capitals, others in serious think tanks, and many of them in the media, and most of them start from hypotheses that cannot be scrutinized for a long time, and yet It must be addressed, because the post-war scenarios of the day after the war are not local, but rather have regional and international dimensions.

The day after Israel is perhaps more important than the day after Gaza. The next day for Israel equals, firstly, that the theory of reshaping the Middle East that Israel has adopted since Sharon in 1982 until today has been repeated more than once and has proven its failure. The next day for Israel also cannot erase the fact that the invincible army and the never-sleeping intelligence failed to anticipate the Hamas attack at the level of gathering information, analysis, and reaction in a timely manner. Consequently, the image of Israel’s strength at home and among its global sponsors, the American and European, was severely damaged. Israel, as a tool of regional deterrence and an American investment, has failed. Countries that have bought into the idea that Israel is a regional deterrent force and extended friendship to it will, at best, have great doubts about its capabilities.

The next day for Gaza is the day before October 7, 2023. Hamas will be present, perhaps in its most extreme form on the ground, with the absence of its political wing, which may leave outside it as Arafat left Beirut, but who will rule Gaza?

Israel has explicitly said that it does not want to rule Gaza, and Gaza cannot govern itself, and Egypt refuses to place the responsibility for Gaza on its shoulders for fear of “transfer,” that is, transferring the people of Gaza to Sinai and throwing the problem in Sinai.

So, the day after Gaza is Hamas control, with its military wing and without its political wing. Who can pay the bill for this? This is the result of changing Gaza by force and eliminating Hamas, as envisioned by the Tel Aviv chambers and some capitals. Netanyahu's map that he presented at the United Nations is the same map as Sharon's in 1982. Sharon died and the Middle East remained not the same, but in a worse condition.

We must take thinking to its logical level, with cold, deliberate minds that reflect what we have learned in matters of governance, administration, and the balance of power in a fragile regional system.

The next day in Gaza resembles the day after most failed wars that did not have a political horizon and a specific definition of victory, from America’s war in Vietnam, to the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan, to America’s long war in Afghanistan, which began with the idea of eliminating the “Taliban,” and then it ended after two decades with the handover of Afghanistan to the Taliban through international mediation.

Failed wars are a problem, and the price of withdrawing from these wars is more serious, and Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon is only one piece of evidence of the type of what people in closed rooms, who have not received a good education, hallucinate.

The Gaza war will not differ much from the Taliban war. After massive destruction and huge costs, the Israelis will hand over Gaza to Hamas again.

Then what to do? The solution lies in the regional parties clearly confirming that they will pay the bill for the failure of short-sighted perceptions. The first to be affected by this wheel are the countries directly neighboring Palestine, and here I mean Egypt and Jordan, and perhaps Syria to a lesser extent. Decision makers in the Western world must listen to the perceptions written in closed rooms in these countries, the Palestinian neighboring countries, as the people of the region are more aware of the consequences of this humanitarian catastrophe. The professionals in these closed rooms in the region are able to present better perceptions than those brought by Secretary Blinken, or drawn by the people of the “hallucinogenic” closed rooms in Tel Aviv.