Victor Chalhoub

With the passage of a month since the Gaza War, and exactly a year before the US presidential elections, the administration of President Joe Biden finds itself in a confusing situation, led to by wrong calculations. The Israeli military operation is faltering, and it has become difficult for Washington to market its continuation without a promising horizon, after it turned To a massacre that is raging in the world, especially the world of the Allies.

At the same time, the New York Times poll numbers revealed on Sunday that the president’s electoral situation is faltering, as his predecessor, Donald Trump, is ahead of him in five crucial states, and it is impossible for him to renew his presidency without winning them.

At this stage of the 2020 elections, Biden was ahead of Trump and remained ahead, but now the equation has been reversed, and the president’s open support for the wars in Israel and Ukraine may have contributed to exacerbating the decline in his already declining score for more than one reason, including objection to foreign wars, including the war Gaza, as recent figures revealed.

Barely half of Americans (51%) support supplying more weapons to Israel, and only 50% support the “method” of its military response to Gaza, according to a poll by Quinnipiac University, which is known for the accuracy of its polls in diagnosing the pulse of public opinion.

The president was not helped by his unlimited support for Israel, and these numbers have worrying electoral implications for the administration if the war is prolonged and its costs increase. This was reflected in the form of confusion over the past week, as if Washington was in a dilemma. It is neither able to bet on the promised Israeli military resolution in a not-too-distant time, nor to retract the “blank check” that it gave to Israel under the title of “its right, even its duty, to defend itself,” which practically means authorizing it to take open retaliation to restore dignity and restore balance in the region as it was until last October 6.

“This is its war and this is its decision,” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said last week, contenting himself with other officials with reminding Israel, but without obligating it, that it must “protect civilians as much as possible.” This is an issue that was given mitigating reasons as a justification that wars have “collateral losses - civilian casualties” that are difficult to avoid, according to the Israeli ambassador to Washington, Michael Herzog, who stressed on Sunday that the military operation “is not limited by a time limit, and no one should urge us” to rush its end. , before “accomplishing our mission.”

His words were apparently directed at some American parties that began calling for a “truce,” such as Senator Chris Murphy, or that called for a “ceasefire,” such as Senator Richard Durbin, both of whom are Democrats, close to Biden, and influential in the Foreign Relations and Justice Committees. Two tasks in the Senate.

Arabic reports

Blinken fails to make progress on Gaza administration proposals

About a dozen Democrats in the House of Representatives have pushed for steps of this kind, in addition to a growing number of opinion and military, foreign, and security experts, who still doubt the ability to uproot Hamas. Doubts and fears increased after Israeli Minister Amichai Eliyahu recently called for the use of nuclear weapons, which suggested that resolving the confrontation with conventional war had become an unlikely issue, which necessitated the invocation of this destructive option that may be circulating in the kitchen of Israeli decision-making, even if only as a form of intimidation, similar to the president’s intimidation. Russian Vladimir Putin in his Ukrainian war. There was also renewed fear of the possibility of expanding the war if the military campaign in Gaza continued for a long time.

Against this background and in light of increasing domestic pressure (demonstrations increasing in size and participation in American cities, and even in the conservative South) and international, an urgent visit by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to the region was decided to conclude a truce, which the administration claimed to “favor,” but the visit It was doomed to failure because it came first as a reaction to relieve pressure, rather than an attempt to catch a breath. On the other hand, because it left the right of veto on the issue to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose local calculations dictate that the raging war continue, until the goals he set for it are achieved.

It was noteworthy that the senior administration officials, Blinken, Austin and Sullivan, were absent from participating in the important Sunday news programs on the major television networks, as has been the custom in the past four weeks. In a circumstance of this kind, there is no explanation for this absence except that the administration has nothing to offer to justify the continuation of the war, and its lack of seriousness regarding the issue of a truce, which is the weakest of faith. 

That is why it contented itself with the participation of Sullivan's assistant, John Viner, in two programs, to celebrate the success of its efforts to secure the entry of humanitarian aid into the Strip, while promising to increase its flow and repeat the mantra of protecting civilians, in an attempt to turn the branch into the root of the crisis.

Source: Alaraby Al-Jadeed