Israeli army is tightening its grip, hoping to improve negotiation conditions aimed at releasing the kidnapped

After more than three weeks of shock and confusion, yesterday came the moment of good news. In an operation whose details were kept secret, the Shin Bet Operations Unit, with the support of the Israeli army, succeeded in rescuing kidnapped soldier Uri Magidish from the captivity of the Hamas movement. Majidish was serving in the command control room at the Nahal Oz base. The majority of fellow female soldiers were killed, or kidnapped, during the “terrorist” attack that was carried out on October 7. As for the intelligence and operational success, yesterday it opened a window of hope for what will come later.

What comes next will be more difficult, but this impressive achievement spreads a glimmer of hope in the hearts of the families of the kidnapped, that the state has not forgotten them, despite its miserable failure. Now, the efforts will be integrated into the ground operation that will be carried out by the Israeli army, which will expand to large areas in the northern Gaza Strip. We can hope that continued pressure on Hamas will create operational opportunities that will allow other kidnapped persons to be rescued. In parallel, intensive efforts are being made to release more kidnapped persons through indirect negotiations with Hamas, with Qatari assistance.

There are things that the dust of battle can no longer hide, as the Israeli army is tightening its grip on the northern Gaza Strip. Yesterday afternoon, there were reports of the movement of mechanized forces belonging to the Israeli army. Before that, the army spokesman announced that an Israeli ground force had uncovered a cell belonging to the Hamas movement, carrying anti-armor weapons, and that the Israeli army had struck this cell at Al-Azhar University. This happened in the northern part of Gaza City, and it indicates an Israeli move deep into Gaza.

The movement of Israeli forces reminds us of the ground operations carried out by the Israeli army in the “Cast Lead” campaign in the Gaza Strip in 2009. Although two clear differences emerge when we compare the campaign launched 14 years ago and the war taking place now. 

First, the Hamas movement has accumulated its strength since then and has improved its defense systems, especially the tunnel network. Secondly, both the Israeli army and government have set a long-term goal of eliminating the authority and military capabilities of the Hamas movement. As American officers indicated in dialogue with their Israeli colleagues, it is still unclear how these steps will be consistent with the goal, which has set a high ceiling of expectations before the eyes of the Israeli public. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his promise yesterday, in which he said that the Hamas movement would be dealt a blow that would bring it to its knees, and that it would be defeated. His latest statement may be a bit more moderate than his previous statements.

Defense Minister Yoav Galant and senior Israeli army officials announced that Israeli forces would be given unlimited time to carry out their mission. This understanding is based on the broad supportive Israeli popular legitimacy, in light of the “atrocities” committed by Hamas on October 7, and the encouraging messages that have arrived from both the United States and many European countries. 

However, Western support is of limited validity, and is conditional on Israel refraining from violating the borders drawn by Biden: adhering to international law, maintaining open humanitarian corridors in order to protect Palestinian civilians, and refraining from occupying the Gaza Strip. At some point, the West's patience will run out, in light of news reports about the suffering of the civilian population in the Gaza Strip (unrelated to its support for activity against the crimes of the Hamas movement). It remains to be seen whether the realistic time frame for the operation will be months, or just a few weeks.

At the beginning of the operation, military friction was relatively low. This may be due to the Hamas movement's choice not to confront it in places that are exposed to it. The nature of the Israeli moves is gradually revealing. 

The IDF has a clear advantage over land, firepower and the ability to operate surveillance facilities. When groups of Hamas fighters move there, they expose themselves to danger. On the other hand, the guerrilla forces that take defensive positions have points that they can exploit by preparing explosive device fields, intentionally blowing up tunnels, and using anti-armor missiles.

Moving troops into the field, into areas previously cleared by air sorties, would help find more defensive tunnels. 

The army made a big mistake in 2021, in the “Guardian of the Walls” campaign, when it squandered an excellent operational capability that it had formulated - the “Blue Lightning” plan aimed at demolishing part of the tunnel network called the “Metro” and striking thousands of saboteurs - and squandering it in a movement Acrobatics-like redundant PR campaigns, which only resulted in the killing of a few “saboteurs”. Despite this, the Air Force, using accurate intelligence, is able to cause massive destruction in the tunnels and kill the “saboteurs.” This is what it is hoped will be achieved now, during the ground operation.

Meanwhile, in the background of events, communications are taking place regarding the deal to free the kidnapped persons. The chances of reaching a complete deal, leading to the release of all kidnapped persons in exchange for the release of all Palestinian prisoners, are not great at this stage. Hamas assumes that its detention of some of the kidnapped persons is considered an asset, in preparation for continued Israeli ground entry, while the release of all the kidnapped persons will lead to the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip becoming more aggressive. 

It seems that the Hamas movement is ready to enter into negotiations related to the liberation of women, children and the elderly, but it is seeking to procrastinate as much as possible, in order to disrupt the ground operation. It is likely that the organization's leadership in the Gaza Strip is the one directing this policy, while the leadership outside the Strip is influential, but it is not the one issuing orders.

Yesterday, a few hours before news began to circulate regarding the release of soldier Uri Megidish, the Hamas movement released a short video clip, in which three kidnapped women appeared, one of whom attacked Netanyahu and called on him to reach a deal for the release of all the kidnapped. As for the country, the families of the kidnapped are escalating the demand to reach a deal, while advertising banners have spread in the cities, on which pictures of the kidnapped are printed. Hamas is waging a psychological war with the kidnapped women, in order to terrify the Israeli public and try to stop the ground movement. These propaganda operations are likely to intensify, as the ground campaign inflicts more heavy costs on Hamas.

The Northern Paradox

In addition, the situation in the north remains complicated. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah announced that he will deliver a speech regarding the war for the first time next Friday. The prevailing impression currently is that the two parties, namely Hezbollah and Israel, understand each other well. They realize the opponent's lack of desire to be dragged behind the Hamas movement into a comprehensive war in Lebanon, but, ironically, this very conclusion is what leads to more offensive measures deep inside the opponent (based on the thinking that it is possible to manage the confrontation without... You cross the threshold into war.) Israel was able to record operational achievements and killed 50 Hezbollah members and more Palestinian “saboteurs”, but Hezbollah and Hamas, in return, began expanding the range of their fire towards the residential communities located south of the Ras Naqoura-Nahariya line.

This point is considered dangerous in the ongoing confrontation, against the backdrop of the expanding activity of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip. Things in the north could also get out of control. Attention should also be paid to Hezbollah's presence on the Syrian side of the Golan, where it mobilizes Shiite militias to serve its goals.

Meanwhile, Iran sits by and watches. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in an interview with Al Jazeera this week, tried to walk a very fine line. On the one hand, he admitted that Iran is arming and training the organizations of the radical axis (Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad movement). On the other hand, he claimed that Iran was not informed of Hamas’ decision regarding the attack, and that it is not a partner in Hamas’ operations. It appears to be an Iranian attempt to maintain a certain safe distance from the war, and essentially, to maintain a safe distance that prevents its military involvement in a confrontation with the United States, which is steadily strengthening its forces in the region.

 The right moral step

In the midst of the chaos created by war, it is sometimes difficult to pay attention to additional long-term damage. The International Court in The Hague sent a public prosecutor to Egypt to examine whether the two parties to the war in the Gaza Strip were committing war crimes. This is a judicial change that Israel has been facing since the days of the “Cast Lead” campaign and the Goldstone Commission report issued by the United Nations. However, the situation now is more complicated: despite the warnings directed to Netanyahu, he insisted on passing the law reducing the reason for reasonableness last August. As a result, Israel will find it more difficult to claim that it has independent, Western-style investigative and judicial systems, and based on this to claim that there is no reason for external interference in its actions.

The images arriving from Dagestan, the small Islamic Caucasus republic, on Sunday night are deeply disturbing. A crowd of mobs at the main airport in the country searched for Jews and Israelis whose plane had landed from Tel Aviv, in order to attack them en masse. This mob created chaos at the airport for many hours, leaving the passengers on the plane trapped. The chaos was suppressed by force, and resulted in many casualties.

Such things do not happen by chance, nor in a vacuum. They are the result of direct incitement, not only in the Caucasus republics influenced by Russia, but within Russia itself. President Vladimir Putin's regime has been spreading toxic political propaganda in favor of the Hamas movement, starting from the first day of the war. It also hosted a delegation of the organization's senior leaders in Moscow last week.

Putin has now become an honorary member of a global coalition that also includes Iran (which is supplying him with drones in his war on Ukraine), Hezbollah, and Hamas. The Israeli silence regarding his actions is shameful. The least Netanyahu can do is finally comply with the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and allow him to conduct a solidarity visit to the country. Zelensky asked to come in the first week, and his request was rejected. When Israel came to its senses, it was no longer certain that he remained involved. It is time to renew our approach to Him and invite Him to come. This is the right moral step, but at the same time it will carry an important message to the world: Israel stands with the rational side of the global conflict, while evil has emerged in its backyard with all its seriousness.