Israeli analysis| Hamas may not collapse, and Netanyahu has lost control of his words and actions

Analysts: Israel cannot achieve the two goals of its war on Gaza: eliminating the Hamas movement and its rule and returning the prisoners detained in Gaza. They are contradictory. “How will hundreds of thousands of soldiers rely on their commander-in-chief, Netanyahu, and how will the families of the kidnapped trust him?”

Analyzes published in Israeli newspapers today, Monday, considered that Israel cannot achieve the two goals of its war on Gaza: eliminating the Hamas movement and its rule and returning the prisoners detained in Gaza. In parallel, analyzes accused the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, of having become incompetent and losing control over his words and actions following the tweet he published, before dawn yesterday, in which he wrote that the leaders of the security services, especially the head of the Shin Bet and the head of the Military Intelligence Division (Aman), did not warn From the Hamas attack on October 7th.

Channel 13 TV political analyst, Raviv Drucker, said in his article in Haaretz newspaper, “There is no way to achieve the two goals, as they are contradictory. Hamas will agree to a plan to liberate (prisoners) only if it learns that Israel has abandoned its intention to eliminate the prisoners.” "And after Hamas wastes more time, Israel will eventually lose national legitimacy and the burdens on its economy will be very great."

He added that an idea is currently being pushed that would allow for a major prisoner exchange deal, “all for all,” and then begin a war to destroy Hamas. But Drucker described this idea as "delusion." He considered that “Hamas’ prisoners are important to it, but this is not the highest goal. It is forbidden to compare the current situation with deals of the past. Their highest goal now is to survive and maintain their rule. But a comprehensive deal will not be concluded until they are certain that we will not be able to enter into a large-scale ground military operation.” To eliminate them."

Drucker pointed out, “There are two realistic options. The first possibility is to go to a deal based on the realization that there will be no ground military operation. This has costs in terms of deterrence and the ability to return the residents of the Gaza envelope to their homes. The deal will last for several months, and within its framework, most of what will be returned.” Maybe the kidnapped ones. Then we will begin to prepare for the war to eliminate Hamas, which will begin at Israel’s initiative after half a year or a year, and perhaps with the presence of another leadership, which will have greater confidence than a prime minister who tweets at one o’clock at night against the leaders of the security apparatus. If Netanyahu had a certain ability to not think only about himself, he would have announced that he would resign at the end of the war. Another leadership can pose a credible threat to Hamas.”

He added, "The second possibility is to begin the comprehensive ground attack planned from the beginning, until the goal is achieved: eliminating Hamas, destroying the metro (tunnels), removing Hamas from the position of power in Gaza and remaining in the Strip, in one way or another, until it is possible to rise." Another judgment, if we are able to do such a thing at all. However, part of the price is that we will no longer apparently see most of the kidnapped people, and perhaps all of them. They may die in battle or in a revenge campaign carried out by Hamas.”

He continued, "The biggest question in this option is whether the Israeli army is even capable of carrying out the mission. The worst scenario is to launch a comprehensive attack, absorbing the terrible social-human damage that will befall the families of the kidnapped and befall all of us, and that we will ultimately be stuck like the Russian army in Ukraine."

According to Drucker, "The leadership in Israel is aware of this analysis. No one is deluding themselves here. Therefore, its original decision was clear: to destroy Hamas. Netanyahu also briefed reporters and said that the kidnapped people would not be a consideration in the war, unless we knew their specific location."

Drucker considered that “the Israeli attack was delayed, and now in the wake of the centrality of the families of the kidnapped in public discourse, the war cabinet has taken a step back. They decided to bet on half the load: a ground invasion first - perhaps Hamas will feel the pressure, and perhaps the kidnapped will be returned despite everything. I wish I was wrong.” But it is possible that at the end of this hybrid path we will get a bad result in all worlds: neither causing the collapse of Hamas nor recovering the kidnapped people.”

“Netanyahu is not qualified and has lost control of his words and actions.”

The former minister in Netanyahu's governments, Limor Livnat, wrote in an article published in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, “The Prime Minister is the commander-in-chief of the army and for hundreds of thousands of soldiers who are now fighting or waiting to enter the Gaza Strip, how will they now be able to rely on you, Benjamin Netanyahu? And how will the family members of the kidnapped depend on you?”

She added, "This terrible tweet, in which you yourself, on your Twitter account, accused the head of the Shin Bet, the head of Aman, and the leaders of the security forces of not warning you about war intentions on the part of Hamas, was the culmination of your campaign to distance yourself from any responsibility for the terrible failure" On October 7th.

Livnat continued: “Bibi, I have known you for many years. I was the head of your media staff when you were elected to head the government for the first time in 1996, and I held the position of minister in three governments that you formed, until 2015. I opposed you and voted against some of your decisions in the government, along with Other Likud ministers, unlike today’s Likud ministers, who know that you have lost your abilities but are silent like fish.”

According to her, “Your supporters are following you like following the leader of a religious sect. They refuse to see that Netanyahu, who was so wise in the past, the most intelligent ambassador of Israel to the United Nations, and the successful minister of finance in the past... has evaporated. In his place here is an incapable prime minister.” He incites, sows internal discord, dismantles state institutions and the guards of the shrine by appointing unworthy people. No, Bibi, you cannot be relied upon. You are not qualified. Give back the keys. Now.”

For his part, party affairs analyst in the newspaper "Haaretz", Yossi Verter, believed that Netanyahu should resign immediately because this is an Israeli interest. And in the wake of his tweet yesterday, “The big fear is that Netanyahu is not responsible for his actions and does not control his words, and in the difficult period that Israel is going through, he is controlled by someone who is controlled by someone,” referring to Netanyahu’s wife and their son, Yair.