Russian President Vladimir Putin, mired in a conflict with Ukraine from which he sees no way out, finds in the confrontation between the Hamas movement and Israel an unexpected, but risky, way to move the geopolitical lines in the region, according to a report prepared by Agence France-Presse.

Here is an overview of the Russian President's five major goals, some of which were no doubt discussed in his talks today (Wednesday) with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the New Silk Roads Forum in Beijing:

Removing Ukraine from the spotlight

600 days after the start of the war in Ukraine that is likely to continue for a long time, the crisis in the Middle East allows the international community to divert attention from the Ukrainian crisis.

Deputy Director of the French-Russian Observatory, Igor Delanoue, says, “The Hamas attack contributes, due to its consequences, to depleting general Western interest in Ukraine.”

Alexander Gabuev, from the Carnegie Center, explains that “this conflict is a blessing for Russia because it diverts a lot of attention from the United States and the West,” stressing that the American administration intends to devote a lot of time to the current crisis in the Middle East, at least until the presidential elections. In November 2024.

This perspective complicates Vladimir Putin's game, as a Republican victory would serve his interests because some of them seek to reconsider American aid to Kiev. The Israeli issue is also very sensitive among the American right.

Avoid clutter

The Middle East is a region of great importance to Russia, and some voices in the West have even expressed doubts that the Kremlin played a role in the attack launched by Hamas on Israel on October 7.

But there is no concrete evidence to confirm this hypothesis. “I have not seen any evidence of direct Russian support for Hamas and this attack - in terms of planning, weapons and execution,” says Hannah Knott, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington. “Let us be clear: Russian assistance was not necessary.”

Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the specialized website RPolitik, believes, for her part, that “a severe escalation, which could even lead to an open conflict between Iran and Israel, could harm the established Russian presence in the Middle East and the current status of its campaign in Syria.”

It stresses that Russian military bases in Syria allow “to highlight Moscow’s influence in Africa and the Middle East.”

Improving Iran's situation

The rapprochement between Tehran and Moscow has become one of the keys to Russian diplomacy, especially with the extensive use of Iranian drones in Ukraine. Tehran is a major supporter of the Hamas movement, similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Here too, Moscow appears to be pulling the strings of the game. “Russia’s war in Ukraine has strengthened military relations with Iran,” says Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Hamas officials have visited Moscow at least three times since Russia invaded Ukraine.

He added: “The question has always been how far this cooperation can reach without causing Israel to rethink its relations with Moscow.” Moscow also fears that any harsh retaliation against Iran would weaken one of its few close allies.

Arranging the situation in Israel

At the same time, Moscow must be careful to arrange Israel's situation, especially since personal relations are good between Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Israeli military factories have not delivered any weapons to Kiev's forces.

Dmitry Minnik, of the French Institute of International Relations, says: “The Kremlin has so far succeeded in keeping Israel out of the war in Ukraine, and would like this Western country not to be an additional supporter of Ukraine.”

However, the Russian President refrained from describing the Hamas attacks on October 7 as “terrorist,” as the West did.

This position “indicates the change in his political priorities” and the fact that he is now addressing pro-Palestinian public opinion in the Middle East and Southern Hemisphere, according to Hannah Knott, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Weakening the West

The primary goal of Russian diplomacy is to weaken the Western world order, a project shared in particular by its Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean allies.

The Kremlin head also directly blamed Washington for the crisis in the Middle East.

In this regard, Tatiana Stanovaya believes that the situation in the region “contributes to spreading anti-Western rhetoric by accusing it of causing global instability and reopening historical conflicts.”

Igor Delanoe points out that “Israeli retaliation against Gaza is characterized by a torrent of fire, which will undoubtedly highlight what may be considered double standards in the Western reaction to the use of force.”

Dmitry Minnik, from the French Institute of International Relations, says: “What unites part of the countries of the South and Russia is not so much the exchange of positive values, but rather resentment, even hatred, and often an irrational perception of the West,” adding: “This relationship with the West has sources.” Several constitute inexhaustible fertile ground for Moscow.

Source: Al Sharq Al Awsat