Strategic assessment: The war on Gaza...scenarios and repercussions

Ten days have passed since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and it has become clear that what comes after it is different from what came before it. In addition to the fact that the rules of the game have changed, the Israeli government, and even Israel itself, will change, and the Palestinian leadership and its authority will change, and the Hamas movement will not remain as it is. If the war turns into a regional war, the entire Middle East will change. The extent of the change depends on the extent to which the war will reach, and whether we will witness a ground war, and if it begins, for how long, and how will it end?

Do the occupation forces dare to wage ground war?

The Al-Aqsa Flood operation was like an earthquake that struck Israel, and it will have major repercussions for years, and even generations to come. Therefore, the emergency government or any government will not be willing to stop its war and revenge before it achieves a clear victory, or before a greater danger and defeat looms before it, and a clear victory does not fall short of directing a fatal blow to the Hamas movement and its military, organizational and leadership structure, and will work to crush and liquidate the movement, and build a new Middle East, as stated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his statements, especially his speech after the Knesset approved the law of war, and to more than eliminate “Hamas” according to a statement by Tzachi Hanegbi, the Israeli National Security Advisor.

Someone might say that the heavy losses that Israel could inflict if it made a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip, and the fear for the lives of more than 150 prisoners, would prevent it from embarking on a ground war. The response to that is to stop the war without a clear victory and without the emergence of developments. Taking greater risks will result in greater losses for Israel. Because the insult, the shameful defeat, and the resounding collapse of Israeli deterrence without exacting a price commensurate with the cause; It will encourage Hamas and other Palestinian factions, as well as Hezbollah, Syria, Iran and others, to launch similar strikes. Which puts a million question marks on the future of Israel's existence. Therefore, Israel will not place the prisoners as a restriction on the ground operation. The aggression is escalating day after day, and there are more than 25 dead Israeli prisoners, and Israel did not care about that.

The size of the expected losses in the ground war could postpone it for some time but not cancel it, and will push the Israeli forces to continue the scorched earth policy, turning the Strip or parts of it into an area unusable by humans, with the continuation of the brutal destructive bombing, extermination, and collective punishments, displacement, racial cleansing, and a tight suffocating siege for as long as possible; to single out the resistance, isolate it from its popular incubator, suppress its awareness, push it to turn against the resistance, and push the people of Gaza to move from the north of the Strip to its south, and from there to Sinai to save their lives, and in order to secure the means of life of food, water, and medicine.

The Israeli government has two options, the worst of which is bitter. It needs to resolve the war quickly, and this is not possible. As for a long war, it exposes it not only to great human losses, but also to the expiration of the green light that was given to it, and it cannot continue for a long time. Given the economic and strategic damage and repercussions on the Israeli economy, which was severely disrupted during the war, or on the greatly damaged global economy, which will be further harmed if things turn toward a regional war.

Ground war will not occur in these cases

The first case: If the resistance surrenders, responds to the enemy’s conditions, stops the resistance by stopping the firing of rockets, stops the guerrilla groups attacking the occupying forces on the Gaza Strip, and releases the prisoners without conditions, as Israel demands, along with the colonial West and Palestinian, Arab and international voices, and this is impossible. Because the resistance that caused shock and terror to the occupying entity and astonishment and admiration throughout the entire world with the Al-Aqsa Flood initiative, despite some of the mistakes that the resistance made intentionally or unintentionally with regard to civilians, factionalism, and the absence of the common room and the national program, cannot lay down its arms and surrender. Rather, it is expected that it hides other surprises for the occupation forces if they launch a ground war.

The second case: If the Israeli air strikes are able to inflict major losses on the leadership of the political and military resistance, its structure, and the system of control and command. Here, assassinations, whether inside or outside Gaza, can play a major role if they succeed in hunting down large and many Palestinian heads, and affect the resistance’s ability to continue  operations, that is, if it is defeated militarily and does not surrender politically, which is very unlikely.

Defeating the resistance militarily could prompt enemy forces to either stop the war, or continue a war of extermination and collective punishment for as long as possible before and with a ground advance.

The third case: If the northern front with Hezbollah is opened, and this will put the region and the world directly in front of the outbreak of a regional war that could be started by Hezbollah, and in which Syria, the Houthis, and Iran will later participate, which is a war that no one wants, then the United States wants to continue focusing on its priorities in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Regarding the Ukrainian war, Iran does not want a war that would cost it dearly in light of the gross imbalance of power and the effects of the ongoing siege since the Iranian Revolution.

Other parties, such as China, Saudi Arabia, and others, do not want war, in order to preserve their interests, and so that the war does not affect their future projects, noting that the intense competition for world leadership, especially between the eastern camps led by China and the western camps led by the United States, makes regional and non-regional war possible although not likely.

But the war currently taking place could slide into it as a result of a rush of events and the failure to stop the war on the Palestinians, reaching the point of a comprehensive humanitarian catastrophe, or the moment the Palestinian resistance breaks. If it erupts, it will not remain or be destroyed, and its outcome is not guaranteed, and as Hussein Amir Abdollahian, the Iranian Foreign Minister, said, America will then inflict heavy losses on it as well.

If we add to the opening of the northern front the opening of the front of the West Bank and the Palestinian interior, which could be opened if the war continues and the northern front is opened, despite the major obstacles that have so far prevented broad entry into the West Bank and the territories of 1948, and may prevent their opening in the future.

Just as the mobilization of American fleets and the threat of American and British participation in the war prevented the opening of new fronts, the gradual and deliberate opening of the northern front may stop the Israeli war against the Gaza Strip.

The Northern Front... heating up, and a gradual situation that may lead to war

The opening of the northern front is possible, as evidenced by the fact that it is heating up more and more, amidst more and more preparations to open it, and the greatest evidence is that the leaders of Hezbollah, Iran, and the Houthis have made clear statements indicating that they will enter the war if Israel and its protectors cross certain lines, if the war of extermination and displacement continues, and if the resistance reaches a Critical point , especially if the Palestinian resistance asks them to intervene.

The opening of the northern front could take the form of a rolling ball, as it is actually happening. Because its goal is to prevent the continuation of the war on Gaza, not to expand it and open new fronts. There is no doubt that Hezbollah and its allies are studying the consequences of America’s entry into the war if the northern front is opened, and they are facing a decisive historical test. Either implement the unity of the arenas and fronts, or refrain from war for fear of its consequences. On Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and the region, and what this means in terms of a major moral and political defeat for Hezbollah, Iran, and the option of resistance.

What reinforces the opening of the northern front is that Israel’s defeat of the resistance will make Hezbollah the second target against which to wage war. Because its continued strength, in light of its possession of a large arsenal of weapons and great influence in Lebanon, threatens to repeat what the Palestinian resistance did in Gaza, and will encourage Israel to continue implementing its plans to liquidate the Palestinian cause, and accelerate the establishment of “Greater Israel,” and what that means in terms of annexing the occupied West Bank, Judaizing it, and expelling the largest possible number of its people and indigenous people.

In this context, it is not possible to completely rule out the scenario of Israel attacking Iran, even though it is weak and unlikely, by focusing on striking nuclear facilities, taking advantage of Israeli alert and American participation.

A war to settle the issue and eliminate the dream of freedom, return and independence

All Palestinians must see that what is happening is neither a Hamas-Israeli nor Palestinian-Israeli war, but rather a global Palestinian-Arab-Islamic-Christian-humanitarian war to liquidate the Palestinian cause and complete the elimination of the dream of freedom, return and national independence, or be the beginning to achieve it. It is also a war to draw the map of the region. The new world in the context of drawing a map of the new world. Without a doubt, the old world order is collapsing, and we are going through a transitional phase, in which there is intense conflict and competition over the form and content of the new world that has not yet been born.

Israel was defeated, and is seeking to turn defeat into victory

It must be said that the government of Netanyahu Smotrich Ben Gvir was crushingly defeated in Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, so it is trying, with full American-British partnership, with comprehensive European and Western support, and through the formation of an emergency government, to turn defeat into victory. The defeat of Israel by a small faction showed it as a weak party, its situation is dangerous, and its future is not guaranteed. For this reason, it resorts to others to help it, to wage a war of genocide and comprehensive destruction, to tighten the complete siege, and to deal with the Palestinians, as Yoav Galant, the Israeli Minister of Defense, said, describing them as “human animals”, in addition to demonizing the Palestinians as embracing the resistance, and the Israeli president justified the targeting of civilians; to cover up the widespread massacres, to wipe out residential neighborhoods and the necessities of life from the ground in the Gaza Strip or large parts of it, Large-scale displacement in the context of ethnic cleansing to get rid of the large human mass in the Gaza Strip, and resettle the largest possible number of displaced people in Sinai in implementation of the old, renewed project of resolving the Palestinian issue at the expense of the Palestinian land and the surrounding Arab countries.

Possible scenarios

Possible and potential scenarios range from a Palestinian defeat, the most prominent features of which are a devastating blow to the resistance and the occurrence of a new Palestinian catastrophe through displacement, or a Palestinian victory manifested in a comprehensive Palestinian rise, or the war ends without victory or defeat. Each party claims that it has won, and that the other party has not achieved its goals.

The first scenario: defeat and a new catastrophe

The most prominent features of this scenario are the following:

First: The success of the “Iron Swords” war in displacing all or a large portion of our people in the Gaza Strip, making the Strip or large areas of it a buffer zone unusable by humans, and eliminating the dream of freedom, return, and independence. In this context, the volume and type of bombing and the targets exposed to missiles from land, sea and air; This indicates that these goals are on the Israeli list of targets, whether they sometimes declare them or hide them.

Second: Dealing a devastating blow to the resistance in general, and Hamas in particular. Because the goal of eliminating “Hamas” that Netanyahu and the pillars of his government repeat is unachievable, it is not possible to eliminate a popular national liberation movement, especially after the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle, which increased its strength and popularity, and will make it able to continue regardless of the results of the war, and it may become militarily weak. Yes, but it will be strong popularly and politically, and this will pave the way for it to regain its military strength and assume a greater Palestinian status.

Resistance after the Al-Aqsa flood is more popular

What reinforces the appreciation of the impossibility of eliminating the resistance is that, as it appeared in the Al-Aqsa flood, it has become more powerful and rooted, and that the resistance began since the inception of the Palestinian issue and is still continuing, wave of resistance after wave, revolution and uprising after revolution and uprising, and the Palestinian cause has remained alive first and foremost because of its justice and moral superiority, and if Hamas is defeated, another movement stronger than it will be born. The resistance continues, despite all the genocide, displacement, ethnic cleansing, aggression, defeats, wars and massacres that the Palestinian people were subjected to, the official Arab regime’s abandonment of the Palestinian cause, and the failure of the Palestinian leadership that concluded the Oslo Accords, which did not... It leads to a state, but to a disaster.

The resistance also derives more ability to continue from the lack of an Israeli partner for peace. Rather, Israel has become more and more under the control of the most extremist, aggressive, and expansionist nationalist and religious trends, parties, and ideas, as well as from the failure of the Oslo Accords and negotiations, and all the attempts that have been made for thirty years and more to reach an agreement. A settlement that achieves the minimum level of Palestinian rights, despite the major concessions made by the Palestinian leadership.

Here, one must be careful not to bet on changing the current Israeli government with a government that is less extremist than it, while adhering to the well-known Israeli (Nos). The most important lesson confirmed by the Palestinian experience is that national goals can only be achieved through comprehensive resistance, and on the basis of the immortal saying, “Resistance sows and politics reaps,” and whoever does not sow will not reap.

The displacement plan failed, but it was not buried

If we take into account the development of events on the ground and their political repercussions, we see that the plan to displace our people in the Gaza Strip to Sinai has faltered after a wave of Arab and international rejection, to the point that Egypt, Jordan, and behind them the Arab countries collectively rejected the displacement and warned against it. Which led to a clear tactical retreat from the emergency government, which replaced the call to displace the Palestinians to Sinai with preparations to open a safe corridor to go from the north of the Strip to the south and to Sinai later, as appeared in explicit calls from Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders, and from the statement of Jake Sullivan, the security advisor. The American nationalist, who called for opening a safe passage for the exit of foreigners and civilians to Sinai, and all of that has been changed by the American and international call now to create a safe area or areas for civilians, and to open the crossings, especially the Rafah crossing, for the entry of medical and livelihood aid, fuel, and the transportation of the wounded.

Here, one must be careful and not rush to conclude that the displacement plan has been completely buried, but rather work will continue for it in other ways, especially if the war continues and is prolonged. The presence of hundreds of thousands outside their homes without public services, without work, and in the shadow of a completely destroyed infrastructure and areas unfit for human use, will realistically and automatically enhance - especially if the war lasts - the scenario of establishing asylum areas in which factories, farms, and areas for investment will be established in Sinai, far from Israeli targeting. .

Within the scenario of defeat and catastrophe, the peace process will not be revived on the basis of the two-state solution, as Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State, promoted during his tour that President Abbas must ensure the calm of the West Bank in cooperation with the occupation, until the resistance and Hamas are defeated, and this will lead to open a political horizon, and this is a complete deception. If the resistance is defeated, the settlement will stop until further notice, and the plan to establish “Greater Israel” will advance more and more, and the Palestinian leadership will be asked to be an agent, otherwise it will be dispensed with.

The second scenario: Palestinian victory and the beginning of comprehensive renaissance

This scenario is achieved by stopping the war while the resistance is still standing with its weapons and prisoners in hand, and by not having a ground war, or by it occurring while the occupation forces suffer heavy losses that push them to retreat. This scenario will open the door to concluding an exchange deal in which Israeli prisons are exchanged for Palestinian prisoners. This scenario opens the way for a political horizon as a result of a change in the balance of power, which may allow for a settlement that achieves the minimum level, or the realization of what rights can be achieved. That is, there will be a better opportunity to end the occupation because of the strength of the resistance, and the international community’s fear that failure to resolve the Palestinian issue will lead to wars and crises that threaten stability, security and peace in the region and the entire world.

This scenario is reinforced by the fact that the Israeli government does not have a strategy for victory and entry into Gaza. This is because the arrogance of force and recklessness led to not developing such a strategy due to the lack of need for it. The Israeli National Security Advisor, who provides information and estimates to the government, admitted that he had mistakenly estimated that after the Saif al-Quds battle, Hamas had become deterred, and that it would not dare to engage in battles With Israel for years to come.

Israel also suffers from another old and renewed weakness, which is that it did not develop an exit strategy from Gaza after entering it, and thus it could sink into the Gaza quagmire and remain there for years. It does not want to reoccupy the Gaza Strip and remain in it. How will it return to it? It knows that the authority in the West Bank is weak and unable and unwilling to restore Gaza on the back of an Israeli tank. If the current leadership refuses to do so, Israel may install a borderline puppet leadership that will have neither legitimacy nor any kind of representation.

Therefore, the presence of American, international, Arab, or mixed forces has been put forward for discussion in Israel, and this is not possible. Because the Arabs cannot contribute directly to the liquidation of the Palestinian cause amidst an Arab popular rise in support of the cause, which is different this time from previous times, as has expressed itself in all forms since the beginning of the war until now, and the United Nations cannot send forces to help the occupying state without an international solution within the resolutions of international legitimacy, as there are friends of the Palestinian cause in the Security Council who have veto weapons, and there is a large majority supportive of the Palestinians in the United Nations General Assembly.

There is no doubt that the deep internal crisis that Israel has entered since the Kahanist government took power has been temporarily put behind the door by the current war. It will not end it, nor will the formation of an emergency government to fight the war diminish it. This Israeli crisis will accompany it for a long time and will contribute to its elimination. It is one of the most important reasons for defeat. Which was caused by the Al-Aqsa Flood Initiative that occurred while Israel was at its worst and weakest.

One of the conditions for this scenario is the achievement of Palestinian national unity on the basis of a common program and true partnership. Just as Israel was united and the emergency government was formed, it would have been more important to restore unity, as it is the law of victory, and there are major motives for achieving it.

The third scenario: There is neither victor nor loser

This scenario is achieved by Israel not achieving its goals (eliminating Hamas, changing the Middle East, wiping the Gaza Strip off the map, and displacing its population), and the resistance not achieving its goals (liberating the prisoners, stopping the plan to change the status of Al-Aqsa, lifting the siege on the Gaza Strip, stopping settlement activity, and tangible progress on the path to ending the occupation.

This scenario is strengthened if the resistance persists and Israel does not achieve its goals, or any political and military goals, and the possibility of opening the northern front increases, whether or not it leads to a regional war. In this case, Israeli public opinion thirsty for blood, revenge, and victory can be convinced that opening two fronts, even with American participation in the war, does not guarantee victory, doubles Israel's losses, and increases the possibility of its crushing defeat.

Israeli and Palestinian changes are inevitable after the Al-Aqsa flood

First: Operation Al-Aqsa Flood brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront, confirmed the impossibility of avoiding the Palestinians in any solution, and weakened Israel and dropped the theory of deterrence and its plan to play a deterrent or hegemonic role in the region.

Second: The Al-Aqsa Flood operation and the war that followed it will lead to major changes, regardless of its results, as the results change the extent and form of the change. Netanyahu's leadership, along with the political and military elite, will be held to account with difficulty for what happened, and this appears in the results of the polls that led to a decline in the popularity of Likud and the parties forming Netanyahu's government, as in the last poll Likud obtained 19 seats, while it currently has 32 seats in the Knesset, in addition to the demands wide spread for Netanyahu's resignation and trial despite the war he is waging against the Palestinians.

Third: The war demonstrated the importance of change in the Palestinian arena, although the possible change will only be through achieving national unity on the basis of the commonalities program as an entry point to appeal to the people through elections.

The absence of official Palestinian institutions from the scene and the weakness of the official political discourse, which became clear through the failure of the Executive Committee of the PLO, nor the Central Council, nor the Central Committee of the Fatah Movement, nor even the so-called “Palestinian Leadership” in the form of General Secretaries, to meet, nor to form a unified leadership to lead the work during the war.

The President, as of writing these lines, has not addressed his people in any speech, and the Palestinian Foreign Minister agreed at the Arab League meeting to a statement equating the victim and the executioner with regard to targeting civilians, and he did not have reservations about it despite the reservations of Lebanon, Algeria, and Syria about the statement. President Abbas - who is under intense Israeli, American and European pressure to explicitly condemn Hamas - also issued statements on the eve and the day after his meeting with Blinken, in which he responded relatively to these pressures when he equated the victim and the executioner with regard to targeting civilians, and demanded the release of Israeli prisoners without linking this to the release of Palestinian prisoners, and spoke about the PLO representing the Palestinians, and not any other organization, in what was understood to be an attempt to pull the cover off the resistance that is waging a fierce battle against the barbaric Israeli war that aims to liquidate the Palestinian cause, and thus represents all the Palestinians.

The Palestinian leadership now faces an opportunity that may be the last to align with its people and give priority to unity. Because after this war, regardless of its results, it is required to be a puppet, or to be dismissed and replaced by a puppet authority.

The Fatah movement must also take the initiative to capture the historical moment, otherwise its fate will be like the fate of the Labor Party, with the difference that it is similar to the one that founded and led Israel for a long period, and then it became difficult to pass the electoral threshold.

Third: The Hamas movement is required, in light of the new responsibilities placed on it after the Al-Aqsa flood, to launch an initiative to unite the Palestinians, on the basis of a democratic national program at its heart, ending the occupation and achieving freedom, return, and independence. Without a clear political project around which the Palestinian people rally, national rights and goals cannot be achieved. What makes the precious and enormous sacrifices and inspiring heroism a new page of glory in Palestinian history.