Palestine: Impotence of the strong and the strength of the weak!

The conclusion about the impotence of the strong is not my idea, but rather an inference from the French strategic researcher Bertrand Badie, and he began his book: “The Impotence of Power” with this idea. After a long review of the facts and events, he concluded with the idea of the powerlessness of the strong, using the Palestinian issue as evidence of this. 

The Israelis have always been in a position of power and superiority, and the strong are the ones who can compromise without fear. Because his strength protects him. If he concedes, he will not give up a right, but rather moderate in the areas that the “excess of power” gave him, and in return, he gains peace and legitimacy. The Israelis did it twice, and both times they regretted it, backed down, and moved in more radical directions. They gave up Sinai, which they invaded in 1967, in exchange for peace with Egypt. 

Then they debated with Egypt for years over the issue of Taba, and they agreed with the Palestinians in Oslo in 1993. Then they regretted it and killed Yitzhak Rabin two years later. After that, radicals from both sides competed to thwart “Oslo” once and for all. !

International resolutions have not changed. As for the facts of the power and inability of the strong, they passed through four stages: In the first stage, there was the belief that the conflict could not be led by the Palestinians, and that the Arab countries were leading the conflict; therefore, the focus must be on forcing it to make peace so that the “issue” will end. 

In the second stage, when success seemed imminent to them, they believed that Jordan could be the alternative Palestinian homeland by spreading chaos in it and displacing the Palestinians there. However, after the first intifada, a new thinking began, represented by Yitzhak Rabin’s team, which was based on satisfying the Palestinians with a quasi-state. But after the cooperation of the radicals on both sides to thwart “Oslo,” the fourth trend emerged or the issue entered the fourth stage, which is based on permanent war and the strengthening of settlements, with an oscillating position on the part of the Palestinian Authority between weakening and canceling and indirect communication with “Hamas” on the basis of establishing a mini-state in Gaza only.

This stage is still ongoing. But after 2007, “worrying” factors appeared among the Palestinians and among the Israelis. The Gazans have never stopped ambitious in one arena against Israel, with an increasing tendency to contest the authority in Ramallah. The Iranians and Hezbollah have become an important factor in the conflict with Israel through Hezbollah and directly by supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The third factor is the decline and then the cessation of the Americans and the international community from supporting renegotiation. The fourth factor is the control of the right and the establishment of settler governments and religious fanatics in Israel, and this is the main characteristic of the policies during the days of the Netanyahu governments up to the era of Donald Trump, when the old idea of ending the Palestinian issue through peace with the Arabs, all Arabs, returned!

What, according to Bertrand Badie, shows the powerlessness of the strong? The inability to achieve complete victory over the “weak” by superior force.

This is what a writer in the New York Times told them after the recent Hamas attack on the Second Yom Kippur Day on Israel. The inability of the superior force appeared in many ways. Despite intelligence, fences, iron domes, and roving fighter planes, thousands of Palestinian fighters left without anyone being aware of them, whether in terms of the major incursions into the settlements surrounding Gaza, or in terms of the thousands of rockets that covered the skies of the Hebrew state.

The second surprise was that thousands of Israelis were killed and wounded, and hundreds were captured. For the first time after 1973, Israel lost again, and it was no longer protected from that lethality by the armies. Fighters are armed groups that strike and withdraw, and their losses, if they lose, are limited. Because the ideological militias attack in small numbers, the losses of the superior state are large, and the losses of the attackers, groups or alone, cannot be compared to them. 

The strength of the weak here appears in his belief in the cause he is fighting for, and in the end the land is his land and he has not forgotten it, and is always preparing to return to it: Didn’t you see how the “Taliban” did in Afghanistan with the huge numbers of Americans and Atlanticists? It was forced to withdraw, and then the Americans and their allies were forced to withdraw and flee just as the soldiers and settlers fled from the colonies of the Gaza Strip!

What does this writer suggest to the Israelis and the Americans? Their most important mistake is not that they do not negotiate for peace after a ceasefire in the proliferating wars. Rather, they all the time want to stifle the Palestinian Authority for two reasons: it exists in parts of the West Bank, and they want to seize what remains of the West Bank under its authority. The second reason is that the authority is a vestige of Oslo, and its legitimacy is based on it and on international resolutions. They don't want this or that. As for Hamas, they have always negotiated to support it in power, and because they are not interested in seizing control of Gaza again.

The writer fears that the arrogant power will have ambitions to seize Gaza again. This threatens a major massacre, and more deaths on both sides, with the war not ending. If the power of “Hamas” and “Jihad” is broken, there will be seven or eight million Palestinians on the land of historic Palestine, in addition to refugees in Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon.

It is best now, despite the multiplication of difficulties and the hardening of the fronts with blood and destruction, to revive Abu Mazen, if possible. The Israelis and Hamas together are the ones who destroyed the Palestinian Authority. The Israelis seek to seize control, and Hamas seeks to replace the authority. A return to Abu Mazen and to Arab mediations is what will save the possibilities for peace, even with the Arab countries. There is no Arab today who is not very proud of what Hamas has accomplished. Moreover, most Arabs do not like Iranian roles in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen! Saving Palestine or a solution for it is still possible with the help of Egypt, Jordan and Qatar, which is an Israeli and Arab interest!

There are many people in Israel and America who consider that the wars in and against Palestine have no end. This means endless suffering for the Palestinian people, whose land is still occupied and all the areas that were occupied by colonialism have been liberated. Then, the continued suffering of the Palestinians means a lack of reassurance and stability in Israel, and a tendency towards a second or third migration. One should not rely on absolute American support in order not to return to the peace process.

Strategic researcher Siham Al-Wakil, who lectured at Chatham House, pointed out the importance of what the Saudi Crown Prince proposed for an integrated peace with Israel, based on stopping wars through a two-state solution. Western presidents who issued a statement in support of Israel also spoke of freedom and justice for Israelis and Palestinians. 

The Israelis enjoy both things, so where is the freedom, justice and fairness of the Palestinian people?!

Source: Al Sharq Al Awsat