Al-Aqsa Deluge: What comes after is not as what came before it

The initiative of Hamas and the resistance movement to launch the “Al-Aqsa Deluge” attack stunned and confused the Israeli government, army and security services. October 7 was, as Nahum Barnea, the famous Israeli journalist, says, “the worst day in the history of the military wars that Israel fought,” and Hamas aimed to, As Ben Caspit wrote, to Get A Victory Image came back with a full album.  In order to understand the dimensions of what happened and the reasons for the shameful defeat, we must know the great impact of the deep internal crisis that Israel is experiencing under the most extremist Israeli government, and its efforts to change Israel into a dictatorial state even for the Jews, and we must know what Israeli leaders, experts and journalists wrote that it is a political and intelligence failure. A formidable military force, it indicates a fragility that was unimaginable in one of the strongest and best armies in the world. It indicates the arrogance of power, and reflects complete recklessness that reached the point of complete blindness, to the point of not stopping at the military maneuvers conducted by the Al-Qassam Brigades, which mimicked what happened before a while ago of the Al-Aqsa Deluge.

  It also indicates the competence, courage and progress of the Palestinian fighter, and a leadership ability that demonstrated abilities in planning, leadership, command and control, camouflage and confusion, as well as strategic and intelligence deception.

  When we compare the Al-Aqsa Deluge to the battles, military rounds, and resistance operations that took place from the year 2005 until now, it appears that Israel lost about 400 people over the course of 18 years, while on October 7 alone, according to the admission of Israeli sources as of writing these lines, more than 700 people died, amid estimates. That the number will reach 1,500 dead, and the number is likely to increase; where the dead are recognized in installments to avoid causing a horrific shock to the Israelis, who are living in astonishment, frustration, and a mass funeral, with more than 2,000 wounded, hundreds of whom are in serious condition, and between 100-150 male and female prisoners have been captured, including female soldiers, soldiers, officers, and commanders, and hundreds are still missing.

 For comparison, there were 650 Israeli deaths in the June 1967 war fought by three Arab countries, the same number in the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, and more than 1,000 deaths in the operations to liberate southern Lebanon over the course of 18 years. As for the Al-Aqsa Intifada, about 1,100 Israelis were killed over the course of four years.  A resounding fall of the Israeli theory of deterrence.

The massive amount of losses in one day is unparalleled, and led to the resounding collapse of the Israeli theory of deterrence, as it was based first on retaining the initiative in war and aggression, while the resistance brigades took the initiative this time. Secondly, the battle was confined to the enemy’s internal front, while the main battlefield during the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa Deluge was on the Israeli internal front. Thirdly, controlling the end of the war, and we have not achieved this, as the war is still in its beginnings. Fourth, resolve the war as quickly as possible; because a long war is causing serious damage to Israel, its economy and its prestige. Fifthly, achieving the goals sought from the war, and this has not and will not be achieved regardless of the course of the war and its results. Because what happened on its first day, the massive losses and the indescribable humiliation, will remain a clear sign of the defeat of the “Invincible Army,” whatever its results, and an inspiring embodiment of the victory of the resistance.

Why the Al-Aqsa Deluge, and at this particular time?

The first reason: assuming a government in Israel that is the most extreme in the history of Israel, which claimed to be able to resolve and achieve what previous governments had not achieved by resolving the conflict with the Palestinians once and for all, and refused to even negotiate with the Palestinians, and maintained the relationship with the Authority despite its cooperation with the occupation. Within an economic security framework, it adopted a program of annexation, displacement, Judaization, military aggression in all its forms, and racism in all its forms, and proceeded with murder, destruction of homes, arrests and assassinations, and changing the status of Al-Aqsa by imposing temporal division, and getting close to achieving spatial division in preparation for demolishing it and erecting the alleged temple in its place.

The second reason: continuing to tighten the siege on the Gaza Strip, keeping it between death and life and the largest and longest prison in history, imposing a equation of calm in exchange for economic facilities, constantly violating the understandings aimed at easing the siege, and not recognizing the Hamas movement and manipulating it by easing the siege with a dropper, and withdrawing it whenever the government wants. Occupation; which led to the deterioration of the situation in the Gaza Strip to the point that it was on the verge of collapse, rebellion against the de facto authority, or explosion in the face of the racist colonial occupation entity, and the explosion did not happen in the end.

The third reason: the increase in the number of detainees and prisoners at large rates, the enactment of racist laws and the intensification of repression and punishments against them at the hands of the fascist Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, until the number of administrative detainees reached more than 1,200 detainees, and many of them spend long and very long periods, under the evasion of the Israeli governments throughout Nine years (since 2014) without completing a new prisoner exchange deal.  In order to understand the importance of this reason, we must remember that a large number of the current Hamas leaders who influence the decision are among those who were released in the recent prisoner exchange deal, and they pledged and committed themselves to liberating the prisoners, and this put them in a very embarrassing situation. We all listened to the speech of the Prisoners' Leadership Committee, which was delivered on the anniversary of the launch of the Hamas movement in December 2022, which included major, sharp, and direct criticism of the Hamas leadership for not fulfilling its pledge to release the prisoners.  

The fourth reason: News about the progress of the Saudi-Israeli talks, under American sponsorship, to reach a normalization deal that ignores the Palestinian issue, by dealing with it as a humanitarian issue, and to realize the dimensions and implications of this step and what it will lead to in encouraging the Kahanist government to launch a larger and comprehensive attack in order to make the plan a success. Liquidating the Palestinian issue in all its dimensions, and certainly one of the most important goals of this plan after Saudi normalization will be to target the resistance in the Gaza Strip and elsewhere. 

Past experience has proven that every Arab normalization leads to Israeli military aggression against the Palestinians, so what the resistance said about information it has about the existence of an Israeli plan to launch a major military aggression against the Gaza Strip immediately after the end of the holiday celebrations cannot be excluded among the reasons.

 In order to understand the impact of this reason, we must place it in the context of the competition and struggle for leadership of the new world, which is becoming more intense in light of the counterattack launched by the Biden administration to stop its decline and maintain American unilateral control over the world. Perhaps the announcement of the Indian economic corridor is an indication of the danger of normalization. Work is underway to achieve it, as it harms the Chinese Belt and Road project, facilitates the way to liquidate the Palestinian issue, and harms Russia, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt.

 Possible scenarios

There is no doubt that the Al-Aqsa Deluge will change the rules of conflict that governed Palestinian-Israeli relations throughout the next twenty years, completely or at least to a large extent, and will have major regional and international repercussions. Israeli governments have invested in the Palestinian division, which is still like a hen that lays golden eggs for the occupation. This included realistic recognition of the continuation of Hamas' rule in the Gaza Strip, within an equation of calm in exchange for facilities, while being keen to launch military aggression after aggression to strike the resistance and its infrastructure, and prevent it from posing a serious threat to the occupation.

What happened in the Al-Aqsa Deluge is a clear indication of the failure of this policy. The resistance has accumulated its strength and was able to provide an inspiring model in terms of planning, training, camouflage, misleading and disrupting surveillance and monitoring devices. This will push the Israeli government to take terrible revenge on the scale of the shock and terror that Israel experienced, and I repeat the advice. Presented by Dr. Walid Abdel-Hay, the resistance should not disclose the numbers of prisoners, but rather a portion of them, which is sufficient to whiten the prisons, in order to achieve other goals, and in anticipation of the re-arrest of those released after their release, as Israeli governments have done more than once.

The first scenario: a devastating Israeli response that eliminates the resistance  This scenario is based on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government implementing its threats to eliminate the resistance and the rule of “Hamas,” and responding to the advice, calls, and demands presented by its very extremist audience, and by right-wing ideologues such as Dan Shiftan, who advised to destroy Gaza, and not to restrict the hand of the Israeli army due to the presence of a large number of prisoners. In the hands of the Al-Qassam Brigades and the Al-Quds Brigades, otherwise what happened will be repeated among Palestinians and Arabs. This scenario could lead to the reoccupation of the Gaza Strip.

This scenario is possible, but there are several reasons that limit its possibility, including:

 First: Achieving the set goals requires a long ground battle, and reoccupying the Gaza Strip. Even if that happens, it will not eliminate the resistance. The evidence is that the occupation forces did not succeed in eliminating the resistance in the Jenin camp despite the repeated attacks, so how will they eliminate it in the Gaza Strip, which It witnesses a huge network of tunnels and tens of thousands of missiles, as well as trained and prepared fighters. In addition, the ground attack will inflict great losses on the Israeli forces and in Israel, both human and moral, and in its economy in particular, which cannot tolerate a long war. In one day, Israel loses billions of dollars. Perhaps the decline in the price of the shekel, the stock market losses, and the suspension of flights to and from Lod Airport are just examples and evidence of this.

 Second: The war reaching an extent that touches the destruction of the Gaza Strip and the overthrow of Hamas’ rule opens the doors for Hezbollah to enter the war. It is inconceivable for the Palestinian resistance to Deluge Al-Aqsa without at least agreeing with Hezbollah to open the northern front, and the early warning message represented by the firing of shells by Hezbollah on the second day at Israeli targets in the Shebaa Farms indicates a serious possibility of Hezbollah’s involvement if Israel goes further in its war on the Gaza Strip.

 Third: The American administration, along with Western countries and NATO, do not want a regional war to erupt while the Ukrainian war is still raging. Any new war will be in the interest of Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin. Perhaps Biden’s warnings, military build-ups, and sending warships and aircraft carriers are an attempt to prevent the outbreak of a regional war. What's more is her calling.

 Fourth: Destroying the Gaza Strip and seeking to eliminate the resistance and overthrow the rule of Hamas will lead to a long war, the escalation of resistance in the West Bank, the increasing possibility of the collapse of the Authority, and the Fatah movement’s alignment with the resistance, thus opening the option of Palestinian unity and turning the page on the black division on a national and participatory basis. . If this happens, the entire plan for building the Greater Middle East will fail.

 Fifth: The occupation of the Gaza Strip, if it occurs, will not eliminate the resistance after it gained great popularity during the Deluge of Al-Aqsa, in light of the absence of a strong and legitimate Palestinian party that would accept to replace the authority of Hamas.

 Second scenario: An Israeli response does not change the rules of the conflict

This scenario is based on the Israeli government launching a strong response and retaliation without changing the rules of the conflict completely and once, and seeking to achieve the Israeli goals in stages and batches. We may witness in this scenario more than others, special operations inside the Gaza Strip, and assassinations inside and outside the Gaza Strip to obtain an image of victory.

 This scenario is reinforced by the fact that large numbers of prisoners fall into the hands of the resistance, and continuing the war of destruction leads to the killing of many of them, and the need for Israel to study the causes of the shortcomings and address them, which it has shown to be weaker than spider webs.

The third scenario: standing between the first and second scenarios  This scenario is based on the occupation forces launching a strong response, and standing on the brink of completely changing the rules of the conflict without actually doing so. This is a dangerous game, but it cannot be completely ruled out.

The goal of ending the occupation is achievable.

It is too early to decide and favor a specific scenario, as the war is at its beginning and its secrets have not been deciphered. The resistance announced that it carried out the Al-Aqsa Deluge; because it has information that the occupation army was preparing to carry out an aggression against it shortly after the end of the Jewish holidays, and the resistance did not specify its goals for the war. Is it merely a pre-emptive defensive step, or does it aim to liberate the prisoners, lift the siege, and prevent the threat to Al-Aqsa and the holy sites, or is there a major goal behind it, such as ending the occupation? The occupied territories in 1967, and thus the Al-Aqsa Deluge will continue in the hope that the West Bank and the Palestinian interior will revolt, and Arab and international solidarity movements with the Palestinian cause will be launched.

I demand the establishment of this goal (ending the occupation), which can be achieved over several years, all at once, or in batches, if it is not set at all. Because the Al-Aqsa Deluge has strongly proven the possibility of achieving it, and without a major goal such as ending the occupation, the Al-Aqsa Deluge - despite its historical importance - becomes just a new page of glory in Palestinian travel, and this is very important, but it is not enough.  Does what is happening open a political horizon?

The question being asked by some seniors interested in what is happening is: Can the experience of the October War that led to the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty be repeated?

The initial response is that the circumstances are different, and the goals of the players are different. Sadat fought the war with a settlement in mind, so he called it a war of movement and not a war of liberation.

A settlement cannot be achieved, even if it is dysfunctional, due to the lack of an Israeli partner for any settlement, even if a unity government is formed in Israel. However, liquidation can be achieved if the resistance is defeated and Israeli goals are achieved. Then there will be a surrender solution, and this has become more difficult now, if not impossible, and then the normalization train will resume its course, as will the plan to establish a new Middle East, and the authority will be the representative of the Palestinian side.

However, these are pipe dreams, as what happened in the Al-Aqsa Deluge and its implications once again prove the overwhelming popularity of the resistance option, and the impossibility of jumping on the Palestinian people and their rights, as it is the difficult number, whether whoever wants it or whoever refuses it.