Global cybersecurity

In light of our increasing dependence on technology in all aspects of life, cybersecurity, which relates to protecting systems, networks, devices and digital data from theft or disruption, has become one of the most important challenges facing the world today. With the steady increase in the number and cost of cyberattacks on countries and individuals, it has become necessary to enhance cybersecurity at the global level. With the Internet of Things, and technologies such as deep fakes, machine learning, and artificial intelligence, the vulnerabilities that attackers will attempt to exploit will increase, and it is expected that the number and severity of cyber attacks on individuals, companies, countries, and their national security will double.

During the Cold War, which lasted for decades, and despite the many serious crises that arose between the United States of America and the Soviet Union. However, the theory of nuclear deterrence, based on “mutually assured destruction,” thanks to the capabilities of a second nuclear strike, was able to spare the world from a nuclear war. On the other hand, in our era, which is witnessing the heat of the birth throes of a new international order, and at a time when cybersecurity and its offensive and defensive weapons have become an integral part of the strategic power formations of countries and their armies, the Trump administration in 2018 amended the American nuclear doctrine to include a nuclear response to a cyber attack. strategic.

The cyber attacks on Estonia in 2007 are referred to as the first cyber war, and although there was no declaration of war from the attacker, or any conclusive evidence of the source of the attack, Estonia at the time accused Russia of being behind the attack, which coincided with demonstrations by the Russian minority in Estonia in protest against the transfer of... A monument in the center of the capital, Tallinn, dating back to the Soviet era. The cyber attacks, which continued for three weeks, targeted dozens of Estonian websites such as parliament, ministries, banks, and media organizations, paralyzing the country.

Unlike traditional nuclear deterrence, cyber deterrence lacks the most important element of deterrence theory: “attribution,” that is, the ability to determine the identity and location of the attacker you intend to deter or respond to. Attackers use techniques that make them anonymous and use other or multiple titles for their attacks (attribution gap and therefore accountability gap). To make them worse than nuclear or conventional weapons, cyber weapons are easily accessible, inexpensive, difficult to track and identify, and evolve much faster than their policies and laws. National and international. Security risks in the cyber field are not limited to attacks aimed at disrupting and sabotaging systems, stealing data for espionage purposes, or paying ransom only. Rather, they may also be misleading media campaigns in the cyber field that harm the national security of a country. For example, the United States of America accuses Russia and China (which deny this) of launching misleading media campaigns in cyberspace and social media to influence the results of the presidential and legislative elections in the United States of America. US intelligence agencies expect that such interventions will continue in the future. With the rapid development of methods of deception and falsification, taking advantage of artificial intelligence applications, the US presidential elections next year may witness the peak of foreign interference in the cyber field, putting American democracy and its institutions to the test. Ironically, Russian and Chinese interventions may be conflicting. For example, Russia may prefer a Republican presidential candidate given the Republican Party's position that does not support unlimited support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. As for China, it may prefer a candidate from the Democratic Party for the presidency, given that he is less aggressive than the Republican Party in the attempts of the American states to contain the Chinese rise.

If we return to the example of changing the nuclear doctrine of the United States of America to include responding with a nuclear weapon to a strategic cyber attack. For example, Estonia accused Russia of the 2007 attacks without being able to prove the accusation. An American response to a cyber attack on the command and control systems of nuclear weapons by a country or group that led the United States of America into believing that the attack came from Russia, for example, may put the world on the brink of abyss within a few minutes.

Therefore, the calls and attempts of many countries to establish an international protocol for cybersecurity may seem late and far from reality, given the deep complexity of the cyber field and the absence of international cooperation from great powers such as the United States, China, and Russia. Even if there is an international intention to cooperate to reach such a protocol, there is no hope that this will happen soon compared to previous similar international protocols or agreements, such as the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which entered into force in 2016 after more than 20 years of negotiations.

Certainly, cybersecurity cannot wait in the era of accelerating artificial intelligence. Accordingly, countries may resort, individually or within geographical or ideological alliances, to adopting something similar to their own “Internet” or a multi-layered Internet to protect themselves and their citizens in the cyberspace.