Has the public Saudi-Israeli rapprochement begun?

Israel has been considered a hostile state by the Arab countries for many years, and the Arab countries rejected all forms of normalization with it, before reaching a comprehensive and just solution to the Palestinian issue. However, Egypt opened the path to normalization by signing two peace treaties with Israel in 1979, without requiring a just solution to the Palestinian issue. After that, the PLO signed the Oslo Accords in 1993 with Israel - the window for normalization - and the Kingdom of Jordan signed a peace agreement with Israel in 1994.

However, the aforementioned agreements with Israel did not contribute to resolving the Palestinian issue. Rather, Israel increased its extremism and intensity. Israel considered the Arab countries’ normalization of relations with it as approval of its Zionist, racist, and settlement policies.

The Arab countries determined their position on the issues raised to resolve the Palestinian issue through the Arab summit held in Beirut on March 27, 2002, to confront the Israeli military escalation of Ariel Sharon’s government against the Palestinian people. The main points of the Arab initiative included in the final statement of the summit stipulated the demand for Israel to withdraw from all occupied Arab territories, including the Syrian Golan and the territories still occupied in southern Lebanon, and its demand for a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem in accordance with United Nations General Assembly Resolution No. 194, And its demand to accept the establishment of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state on the Palestinian territories, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and to ensure the rejection of all forms of settlement that contradict the laws adopted in the Arab countries, and finally to call on the international community to work towards implementing this initiative.

Accordingly, the Arab Summit pledged that if Israel accepted these conditions, the Arab-Israeli conflict would be considered over, in addition to establishing exchange relations with Israel and living together in peace.

However, American and Israeli policies succeeded in shifting the solution to the conflict from the Palestinian interior to the Arab exterior, as the pace of political and cultural normalization with Arab countries that had not yet entered into peace agreements with Israel increased. This would allow Israel to be accepted into its Arab environment before ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which would mean weakening Palestinian demands.

In mid-September 2020, secret Arab normalization culminated in the official announcement of the signing of the so-called peace agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain with Israel at the White House under the auspices of US President Donald Trump, and on October 24, 2020, it was also signed with Sudan under Trump’s sponsorship. It is noteworthy that Morocco was the fourth Arab country to normalize its diplomatic relations with Israel under American auspices on December 10, 2020, and it is expected that many Arab and Gulf countries will sign the same treaties with Israel, and thus these countries will have abandoned the Arab initiative as a condition for normalization with the occupation, thus ending Its Arab commitment to the Palestinian issue, achieving its interests at the expense of the first and central Arab issue, turning the Palestinian issue into a marginal issue.

These agreements focus on the security interests of the signatory countries in the face of the so-called threat that Iran poses to the countries of the region, in addition to economic and strategic interests, in light of the neglect of the Palestinian issue. These agreements are far removed from the Egyptian and Jordanian peace treaties, which were based primarily on the principle of establishing peace. In exchange for the recovery of its occupied territories.

The Gulf states and Israel considered former US President Barack Obama’s efforts to conclude a nuclear agreement with Iran a matter of concern, and therefore the search for ways to confront the Obama administration’s plans constituted an opportunity for the Gulf states and Israel to work together, as this step formed the subsequent basis for working with the administration of former President Donald Trump. Indeed, this strategy turned out to be very successful, as the alliance of Israel and the Gulf states formed the core of US foreign policy in the Middle East. In doing so, the United States provided almost open support to both sides, withdrew from the nuclear agreement initiated by Obama and implemented a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran.

On the other hand, the Gulf countries believed that normalization with Israel would help them strengthen their security ties with the United States, given the American role in maintaining Israel’s security. This analysis may be correct, as after Egypt signed a peace agreement with Israel, it became the second largest recipient of American aid, despite its authoritarian policies. From a Palestinian point of view, the Palestinians see the rush of some Arab countries to normalize relations with the Zionist entity as treason.

According to the Hebrew Walla website on October 21, 2021, the administration of US President Joe Biden discussed with Saudi Arabia the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel. Bin Salman did not explicitly reject the possibility of normalization with Israel, stressing that such a step would take time, but Saudi Arabia has announced More than once, it will not normalize relations with Israel until a solution to the Palestinian issue is found and the Israeli occupation is ended.

In this regard, it is noteworthy that the Israeli journalist in the New York Times revealed, at the end of July 2023, a “new deal for Biden” to normalize Saudi Arabia’s relations with Israel.

On August 13, 2023, the Saudi conditions for normalizing its relations with the Israeli state were revealed. The conditions are for Saudi Arabia to obtain security and political guarantees and to obtain many demands, most of which are from the United States of America, including the United States agreeing to sell the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 50 F-35 aircraft, without a ban. For any of the types of advanced ammunition used by Israel, and agreeing to proceed with the completion of a sale deal and the establishment of 5 nuclear reactors designated for peaceful purposes, and the last condition is that Israel stop weakening the Palestinian National Authority and return to the negotiating table in order to achieve peace and stability in the region.

If these leaks and conditions are true, Saudi Arabia will have abandoned the initiative that it put forward at the Arab Summit in Beirut in 2002, and replaced the condition of the Arab Summit in Beirut with non-normalization before finding a just solution to the Palestinian issue and ending the occupation on the condition that the authority is strengthened or not weakened.

In this context, the Israeli occupation Foreign Minister, Eli Cohen, stated on August 7, 2023, that Israel and Saudi Arabia have a common interest in reaching a normalization agreement, and the Palestinian issue will not stand as an obstacle to normalization, adding that it is in everyone’s interest to improve life in the areas of the Palestinian Authority, As for Biden, he will achieve something before the elections, and this will strengthen the American economy.

In the same vein, a senior Israeli official stated on August 24, 2023, that there are no concrete demands from Israel, such as freezing settlement construction, and all demands focus on economic aid to the Palestinians, which will come from the Saudis and Americans.

Despite this, Israel rejects the Saudi conditions for normalization, and this was confirmed by the Minister of Strategic Affairs of the Israeli occupation, Ron Dermer, on August 20, 2023, that normalization is continuing and Israel will not allow any Arab country to possess a military nuclear program, and from his point of view the number of Arab countries will increase. The printing press is with Israel, adding that Israel will not necessarily oppose Saudi Arabia developing a civilian nuclear program, in exchange for normalization of relations. However, Netanyahu and opposition leader Yair Lapid rejected Saudi Arabia obtaining any nuclear program.

In response to the above, it is possible that Israel will agree to establish a Saudi civil nuclear program supported by America, in light of Israeli estimates that Saudi Arabia may obtain support for its nuclear project from China or France. However, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated on August 22, 2023, “It is not expected to announce progress in the normalization negotiations anytime soon between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

In this regard, it is noteworthy that Saudi Arabia has appointed Ambassador Nayef bin Bandar Al-Sudairi to the Palestinian Authority, and he is awaiting a permit from Israel allowing him to cross into the Authority’s areas. This appointment is considered a prelude to normalization between the two countries, which will be followed by the appointment of a Saudi ambassador to the Zionist entity.

The countries that officially announced their rejection of normalization with Israel are Kuwait, Algeria, Iraq, Tunisia, Yemen, and Lebanon so far. The risks of normalization with Israel will not be limited to harming the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian people, but rather its risks will be far-reaching and long-term for the Arab and Islamic nation.