Syrian refugee Nayrouz Hussein picks up some washed clothes from a rope hanging in the sun on the roof of a building in the Turkish city of Sanliurfa, and expresses her hope that "Erdogan will win" the presidential elections "because he will help us stay here."

The housewife from Kobani, which is predominantly Kurdish in northern Syria, hopes that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power for 20 years, will win the Turkish presidential elections scheduled for May 14th.

Since the beginning of the conflict in Syria in 2011, Turkey has officially hosted 3.7 million Syrians (likely more than five million in total) who have fled the Bashar al-Assad regime, Russian bombing and attacks by the Islamic State.

With the elections approaching, this community, most of whom live in a "temporary protection" situation, fears the victory of opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu (CHP), who promises to return Syrians to their homeland "within two years."

Newroz, 35, and her husband, Adel Sheho, 38, arrived in Turkey in 2015. "Two weeks after our marriage, Kobani was attacked by the Islamic State," according to the husband.

The family settled in the city of Sanliurfa (south), 40 kilometers from the Syrian border, and says it considers Turkey its "second home."

"Our four children were born here, they don't know Syria. We were received well at the beginning, but things changed because of the economic situation," with inflation exceeding 85 percent last fall and the deterioration of the value of the Turkish lira, Adel added.

And he continues, "Even if they don't return us all at once, they will put pressure on us, demand papers, and increase rents and bills...".

In 2021, the mayor of Bolu (Northwest), affiliated with the Republican People's Party, abolished social assistance and raised the water bills of Syrian refugees by 11 times, and doubled the taxes imposed on registering marriages in order to discourage them from doing so. However, his party disowned him and he had to pay a fine.

The incident reflected the winds of change that have blown Turkey since it became the world's largest home to refugees and migrants under Erdogan's Islamist rule.

About 240,000 Syrians in Turkey acquired citizenship and thus gained the right to vote, through investments (in companies, buying real estate...) or, like Hussein Ataba, through studies in desirable fields.

Hussein (27 years old), who obtained Turkish citizenship in 2020, will vote for the first time, but he is the only one authorized to vote in his family, and for the sake of the future of his mother Zara and his five siblings, he will vote for Erdogan.

"My friends and I share the same opinion: not only because we are Syrians, but also because we see what he (Erdogan) has done for the country," said the mechanical engineering student.

Regarding the Republican People's Party's commitment to a "voluntary and dignified return" of the Syrians to their country, he says, "We cannot go back and trust Bashar al-Assad."

After arriving from Raqqa in 2015, after the Islamic State declared it its "capital", the family does not intend to leave.

Zara, a 50-year-old mother who was widowed three months ago, started a home-catering service in her neighborhood. "We were here in 2018," when the previous presidential elections were held, "but this time we are more afraid: in every speech (the CHP) talks about bringing us back," she says.

"They will hunt us at night. Even our Turkish neighbors are afraid of us."

In front of his office in Şanlıurfa, local CHP official Halil Barot says reassuringly: "The most important thing is their safety, they are our brothers. We cannot throw them into the fire, send them back to the war."

He rectifies, "But with their arrival, housing and rent prices rose, which harmed us," even if the Syrians provided cheap labor in several sectors, including textiles, construction, and agriculture.

For Omer Kadkoy, a researcher at the TEPAV think tank in Ankara, the scenario of mass repatriation seems "unrealistic". "Even with the end of the war in Syria, it will be necessary to ensure their security and safety, because disappearances, persecution and kidnappings continue there," he explains.

The researcher believes that the speech of "returning" the Syrians to the homeland is a "practical tool" for the electoral campaign of the Republican People's Party, "instead of addressing urgent issues such as the economy, justice and democracy...".

As Muhammad Utbah, 25, delivered an order that his mother had prepared for a neighbor on a scooter before returning to his job as a security guard, he asked why anyone would want to return it, saying, "We don't do anything wrong here. We are useful to Turkey."