2024... a possible rerun of the Biden and Trump races

A rematch of the Biden-Trump presidential campaign in 2024 may not be the contest most Americans want. But in all likelihood, it may be the match they will watch. President Joseph Biden's situation is complicated. Opinion polls show that the “Democrats” have a positive attitude towards the president and approve of his job performance, but almost half of the “Democrats” prefer that someone else be the bearer of their principles in the 2024 round.

This may present a problem for the re-election of the President, except for four factors. The first is that Biden's successful and sober two-and-a-half years in office means that there is no serious "Democrat" willing to challenge his re-election. Secondly, Biden's potential successor is Vice President Kamala Harris, but her approval ratings are so low that "Democrats" see Biden, despite his advanced age, as a safer bet in the general election contest against any "Republican". And third, other potential Biden replacements are all centrists, meaning any challenge would be based on personal differences rather than politics and displease the party establishment.

Finally, a challenge is unlikely under the new schedule of presidential primaries. A few months ago, the Democratic National Committee, the party's governing body, replaced Iowa and New Hampshire, which had long been the first states to contest the electoral process, in South Carolina. Iowa and New Hampshire, which the Democratic establishment has deemed problematic, have long catapulted recalcitrant candidates into the national spotlight against the party establishment's preferences. And with Iowa and New Hampshire, which caused Biden's defeat in 2020, out of the way and replaced by South Carolina.

Notably, South Carolina represented an easy win and a turning point for Biden in 2020. Hence, the bipartisan establishment feels confident that it has paved the way for a repeat of Biden in 2024. Trump's story is almost entirely different from that. Just as in 2016, when Donald Trump won the Republican presidential nomination and continued to advance until he won the White House, it seems that the Republican Party establishment is uncomfortable with his attempt in 2024 to return to office. But their efforts to find an alternative are turned upside down by Trump's strong control of a large majority among the "Republicans".

Trump's base remains firmly attached to him, regardless of the indictments against him. condemning those who attack him; This front includes the media, law enforcement, and "Democrats" or even other "Republicans" who accuse them of betraying principles. And Trump's leadership stems from the intense attachment to his person from his base, whose feelings of alienation and anger he successfully exploited, and from his relentless attacks against those who dare to challenge him.

And with DeSantis' star fading in the face of Trump's attacks and other Republican elected officials fearing to step over him -- few others may emerge as contenders. But, like in 2016, although some of these hopefuls may soon be heralded as "flavor of the month," they will be no better off than Desantis. At this point, few odds may prevent Trump from ascending as the candidate of the Republican Party.

One such possibility is that he decides to support someone else (which is almost unimaginable) or fails to run. And if Trump loses, which is unlikely, a painful primary battle, he will emerge as a bloodied champion without the support of his loyal followers. And so, at this point, 2024 feels like a repeat of 2020, but with a difference.

Both candidates are getting older. Biden has become more circumspect and less close to the public, but he still attracts a wide swath of voters with a business record and his appeal as "working-class Joe from Scranton." On the other hand, Trump still espouses the delusional and dangerous notion that the last election was rigged and uses that grudge to motivate his loyal followers. And his behavior will ensure that 2024 is likely to be more dangerous than 2020.

* President of the Arab American Institute - Washington