The Palestinians have a historic opportunity, so let them hasten to seize it before it is lost

I claim that the Palestinians have a golden historical opportunity, whose area can be expanded, or it can be closed, and the time period required to judge whether it will be used for the benefit of the Palestinian people or not, continues from now until the end of next year, based on the four points mentioned below.

First: The old world is collapsing and a new world is emerging

It must start from the fact that the historic opportunity began to loom on the horizon after the Ukrainian war, and the clarity of international double standards in dealing with the occupied Palestinian people for 75 years, and subject to racist settler colonialism that committed all kinds of crimes against humanity, and was not held accountable, but is dealt with as a result of protection As a state above international law, far from accountability, sanctions, and isolation, it has not implemented any resolution against it, despite the issuance of hundreds of resolutions by the Security Council, the General Assembly, and UN agencies.

However, by virtue of siding with the executioner at the expense of the victim, the signs of this historical opportunity did not appear clearly. That is, it could not be employed except after the Ukrainian war and its repercussions contributed to putting an end to the unipolar international system, and the beginning of the emergence of a new world order whose features were not clearly and completely crystallized until now. Where it could be bipolar, multipolar, or a new system, we know at least that it will not be controlled by one country, and it will be better, merciful, or less bad than the old unilateral system, in which the United States practiced all kinds of injustice, discrimination, domination, exploitation, wars, and fragmentation, especially In the Middle East, which occupied a wide position within the American plans.

Second: the ongoing deep structural Israeli crisis

Since the beginning of this year, Israel has been going through a deep, unprecedented structural crisis that is likely to continue - even if a settlement is reached - for a long period, if not forever. This crisis began with the formation of an Israeli government that is the most extreme since the establishment of the occupying entity until now, a crisis that deepened Israeli weaknesses and made Israel weaker than ever before, without forgetting that it is a nuclear state and is superior militarily, economically, security and technologically, and has organic relations with the most powerful country. In the world; Where the conflict has become open between the current and the founding parties of Israel and the secular and liberal Ashkenazi parties, and between the more extreme nationalist and religious parties, which want to establish a Sharia state on the ruins of the Jewish liberal state that Israel has represented so far.

And whoever does not believe what we went to, let him look at the demonstrations that have taken place in Israeli cities since the beginning of this year, which on March 27 reached the brink of civil disobedience, and perhaps civil war, had it not been for the temporary retreat of the government after the unprecedented American intervention in approving the laws that govern its control over The judiciary, having taken control of the legislative and executive powers. During the coming period, which will not increase from now until the end of next year, at the latest, it will become clear whether the various parties within the government and the opposition will reach a settlement that will calm the volatile internal and external situation until it erupts again, or not?

At this stage, it will become clear whether the government will stand or collapse and form a broad government, and perhaps national unity, especially if the current government chooses to export its crisis to an external enemy whose enmity the two sides agree on, and the need to fight it? In light of this scenario, one must prepare for a military aggression against the Palestinians, less for a war with Hezbollah, and perhaps much less for a regional war.

In this aforementioned stage, which will extend until the end of next year, the end or extension of the Ukrainian war will appear, and in favor of whom, and its full repercussions on the international system, and where will the Sino-American competition, whose title is Taiwan, reach, but in essence the struggle over who will lead the new world, and over What grounds and rules?

This stage will also witness the US presidential elections in November 2024, in which if the Republican Party headed by Donald Trump or another similar Republican candidate succeeds, this will give great support and the elixir of life to the Kahanist government, and this portends if the historic opportunity is not seized by its end. Instead, there will be greater risks represented in the implementation of the scheme of annexation, Judaization, displacement, apartheid, and military aggression.

Third: the strategic changes taking place in the region

The region is witnessing strategic changes between the Arab countries, and the Gulf countries in particular, and between Iran and Turkey. Enemies have become friends and allies, and the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia in particular, have adopted a new policy, diversifying their relations between the East, led by China and Russia, and the West, led by America, and seek to resolve crises from the Yemeni war, through Lebanon and the return of Syria to the Arab League, not End in Lebanon and Palestine.

I think, and not all suspicions are sinful, that this year, and at the latest next year, it will become clear whether the Arab countries can pave a new path in which they will restore the status of their countries and the Arab role. As it takes its proper place in the map of the new world, or will America, Israel and other internal and external parties disturbed and affected by the new Arab path be able to return the situation to what it was, and worse, or with some formal and tactical changes? It is not easy to turn back the changes that have taken place in the region, especially since their motives are many, from various parties, and they began many years ago.

Fourth: Uprisings and waves of uprising in Palestine

Since 2015, Palestine has been witnessing successive popular and armed uprisings and waves, most notably the uprising of dignity and the Sword of Jerusalem in May 2021, and the launch of an uprising wave since March 2022, larger than its predecessors, leaving more than 50 Israelis dead and hundreds wounded, as a result of mostly individual resistance operations, which the occupation admits is impossible. Preventing it, in addition to forming armed resistance brigades in Jenin, Nablus and other areas.

The Israeli security services have failed in the face of this phenomenon, and despite the gaps and mistakes they suffer from and the lack of an intellectual, political, organizational, leadership and program incubator, it indicates that the Palestinian people, as usual, take more and more initiative to defend their cause, rights and existence, especially after the emergence of a vacuum As a result of the previously adopted strategies reaching a dead end, and after the occurrence of the Palestinian political, geographical and institutional division, which expresses itself in the worst way through the existence of two conflicting authorities, the competition and conflict between them overshadows everything else.

This wave continued, and took new forms, reaching the extent witnessed by the popular and armed resistance this Ramadan, especially the implementation of rocket launches from Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Syria, in a maneuver with live ammunition, to test the extent of damage to Israeli deterrence as a result of the structural crisis that Israel is witnessing. Where it showed its weakness, and that it is a serious damage, without ever meaning that it lost the ability to attack in order to restore Israeli deterrence.

In order to realize the extent of the damage caused, we point out that the Israeli deterrence theory was based on several pillars, most notably: retaining the initiative to attack, limiting the battle to the enemy’s home front away from his own, quickly resolving the battle in his favor, and retaining the last word on the battlefield, so how much is left? This theory in light of reading what happens in the previous battles?

A message to the president and the two poles of division (Fatah and Hamas)

In order for Palestine to be able to capitalize on the historical opportunity before it is lost or exhausted, a comprehensive structural change must be made in the institution, vision, political discourse, decision-making mechanism, and those who control it. Where the foundations of true partnership for the various colors of the political and social spectrum are based on national and democratic foundations, in a way that achieves the rebuilding, unification and activation of the institutions of the Liberation Organization, the national entity, to become in word and deed the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. Because the continuation of the division, its deepening, and its arrival to separation, and to more fragmentation and division; He cannot take advantage of the available opportunity. Rather, the risks and challenges that could take away the remaining Palestinian gains, including the unity of Palestinian representation, will multiply. Where the Israeli option and the Arab and international options and alternatives will advance to replace it in an attempt to save what can be saved.

This change can be imposed by the people and the forces that believe in the necessity for it to happen, or initiate it, or at least President Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah movement participate in it, by considering what remains of his life in power as a transitional period, in which the Palestinian house is comprehensively arranged before a scenario emerges. messes with his head and eats everything in his path; Where he ends his reign by providing the conditions for a peaceful and democratic transfer of power after him, especially in light of the hollowing out and disruption of institutions, the cancellation of elections, and the failure to hold the eighth Fatah conference on foundations that restore Fatah’s splendor, unity, and effectiveness, and what this requires of serious endeavor to end the division, and restore unity on the basis of a national program. It embodies the common denominators, most of which are in the presence of a government in Israel whose program is to crush the Palestinian cause and liquidate it from its various aspects and parties, including the PA. Rather, it will collapse and be replaced by local and municipal administrations that are not linked by an inclusive link, embodying the argument that there is no Palestinian people, and this is not the opinion of a minority in the Kahanist government, but rather the opinion of a majority in the Israeli elite.

We should not wait for an invitation from Arab or foreign countries to achieve reconciliation, just as Saudi Arabia’s invitation to a delegation headed by President Mahmoud Abbas raised hopes that might be false. Speculation about the possibility of a Saudi-Palestinian initiative to complement the set of initiatives that it started after the Beijing tripartite agreement to reach a solution to the Yemeni war, restore Saudi-Syrian relations, and solve the crisis in the election of the President of Lebanon; Because it will not succeed unless it really exists, and if it finds a Palestinian willingness and response to the invitation, and the requirements for its success. The Arab summit that will be held in Riyadh next May is a golden opportunity to revive the file of national unity in a different way than before.

There is a new area, as what happened before the Ukrainian war is different from what followed it, and the return of Iranian-Saudi relations is just an example. Where bilateral, regional and regional meetings were held, and the changes taking place in them, unfortunately, the Palestinian cause is not at its heart, "the absent has no deputy", despite its central position; This is due to the decline in its priority, and the absence of a Palestinian leadership that is controlled only by the survival of the Authority, and is waiting for salvation from the unknown, instead of taking the initiative to be present in every place required by the Palestinian interest, and considering what is happening as a new, serious and historical opportunity that will not last forever to end the division and unify the two authorities, within a solution. The comprehensive package that is implemented in parallel and synchronously as much as possible, according to a detailed road map that does not skip anything essential; Because that would be like a mine that will explode at any next station, especially since the occupation has played and will play a major role in thwarting any initiative to achieve Palestinian unity, which is based on principles, interests and the local, regional and international balance of power.

In order for Saudi Arabia, or any other country, to succeed in achieving unity, it must involve other countries and parties concerned, especially Egypt, and benefit from its experiences. Solutions must be put in place to the huge obstacles and obstacles in front of unity, which prevented its achievement in the past, and will prevent it now and in the future. If you do not provide appropriate solutions. This requires realizing that unity will not be achieved through a decision, quickly, and from the top only, but rather from the bottom up and vice versa, and within a persistent historical process that knows when to start, the point on which the Palestinian cause stands, the parties it represents, the goal it will seek to achieve and how it can be achieved.

Here, any solution must include agreement on the formation of a government of national unity and a temporary consensual transitional body that will lead the transitional phase, in a manner that does not prejudice the organization’s powers and legitimacy, and to appeal to the people through elections, and by national consensus if elections are not possible, and to adopt the political program The importance it deserves, and that the unity agreement, especially the government that forms, be able to take off, fly, and reach the desired station, based on Palestinian interests, rights, and goals, far from reproducing the failed settlement process without ignoring international law and United Nations resolutions, and paving the way for negotiations to implement International legitimacy is not negotiable, apart from the Quartet's unjust conditions, especially after the Quartet died, and after successive Israeli governments killed the so-called "peace process".

Before the recent Israeli, regional and international changes, the situation was and still is heading towards an explosion more than towards a popular uprising. However, if the process of achieving unity on the basis of changing the course and adopting a participatory democratic national path is achieved or started, then it will move towards a victorious uprising. An uprising with a single leadership, absorbing the lessons of the previous uprisings, and with a realistic and achievable national goal, and it must be ending the occupation and embodying the state on the 1967 borders, at the same time continuing the struggle for the right of return and equality on the path of a radical, historical democratic solution.