Possible Israeli aggression scenarios

People agree that the (delayed) Israeli aggression is inevitably coming, and they are right for two reasons. The first reason: the criticisms leveled by the home front for the leadership of its weakness and inability to rule and provide protection, and the Israeli army for the weakness of the military response and accusing it of eroding its deterrent power, and the successive statements of Israeli leaders, experts and analysts calling for By escalation, and the second reason: Their knowledge of the nature of the enemy, which always seeks to achieve the element of superiority, even by committing bloody massacres, because the defect in it poses an existential threat to them, and their knowledge also of their enemy, who considers war a hoax, and not using the usual destructive force is a trick and a postponement of aggression to pass the celebration of holidays.

This reinforces some of the signs mentioned in Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech, where he repeated his acknowledgment of the erosion of the deterrence capacity more than once when he said, "We have lost the deterrence force because of the rejection orders within the army." Then he said that restoring deterrence requires time, but we will restore it. And he used terms such as deterrence is damaged, we will restore deterrence and we will correct the situation, and we are ready for strong operations and our hand is long, and he said there are still many threats and we are at the height of the battle preparing for major operations on all fronts if required, but he added, saying we do not seek a broad confrontation, but if we are forced we will do without hesitation . Netanyahu has an interest in escalation, and he has received successive blows with the legendary steadfastness of Jerusalem in the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the heroic operations in the West Bank and our people in the 48th, rockets from the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights, and under the pressure of internal disintegration and the continuous demonstrations against him for a long time, and Ben Gvir’s blackmail and smothering him, and perhaps comments His opponents over his speech push him to speed up this, as Gantz commented on his speech, saying: He who weeps is not fit to be a leader, as Neftali Bennett described his speech as meager, while Lieberman called on Likud members to overthrow Netanyahu, for his part, Lapid commented on his speech, saying while our enemies continue to beat us, Netanyahu has lost control in front of the nation. What makes matters worse are the Channel 13 surveys, in which it was stated that;

71% of the Israeli public is dissatisfied with the performance of current Prime Minister Netanyahu, and the Likud party has fallen to 20 seats in the opinion polls, while Gantz's party has risen to 29.

Most importantly, what was stated in the Washington Post, based on a leaked document from the US Pentagon, says that the "Mossad" is behind the protests against the Netanyahu government.

Therefore, the door to possibilities for escalation is open, and the nature and extent of aggression depend on the following elements:

The ceiling of aggression allowed by the United States of America and the extent to which it can support Israel in international forums, according to the new data. As for the military, it was prepared for that and sent the submarine "USS Florida", as it entered the region recently and began crossing the Suez Canal, and it is capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles. According to US statements, the submarine was sent to help the US Fifth Fleet to spread maritime security and stability in the region. .
Assessment of the Israeli military position based on security and intelligence information about the preparations of all parties and their ability to cooperate, coordinate and work jointly, and whether the aggression will be on one front or other.
The assessments of the Minister of War, the Chief of Staff, the security services, and the Home Front Command of the Israeli army's capabilities and readiness, and the possibility of a ground intervention.
The readiness and willingness of the Israeli home front and its endurance.
The goal or objectives of the military operation (political achievement, restoration of deterrence, changing the rules of combat, saving face).
Possibility of calling reserve and its size.
Time factor and time slot available.

Possible fronts of aggression:

Firstly. On one front, which is an Israeli desire, most likely to be the Gaza Strip.

secondly. Several fronts in the event that this is imposed on them, and the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon are candidates first, or the Golan and southern Lebanon.

Third. Iran front, bombing nuclear reactors and other targets.
Attack scenarios:

The first scenario: the assassination of leaders or cadres of the resistance would be tantamount to preserving Netanyahu's face in front of his opponents and critics in the event of a lack of response and escalation.

a. A battle between wars in which the air force and artillery are used, ground maneuvers, and an attempt to storm the borders, a method that was previously implemented by the Israeli army.

B. Calculated escalation without bombing, using air force, artillery and missiles only, and a limited bank of targets.

However, these two trends are governed by the nature of the response of the resistance, and the response is usually strong and equal, depending on the nature of the aggression and the size of the losses.

The second scenario: a limited ground advance under heavy air, land and sea support on one or more axes in an attempt to achieve field gains and arrest fighters or liberate prisoners to influence morale and consider it a field achievement.

The third scenario, which is the most dangerous: an all-out war in which encirclement, isolation, rapid breaching, and the advance of ground forces on multiple axes and access to missile launch areas under the use of destructive preliminary bombardment by land, sea, and air in a scorched-earth pattern, as happened in 1982 in Lebanon.

The fourth scenario, based on the arrival of the US nuclear submarine and the mobilization of the Fifth Fleet: The bombing of Iranian nuclear reactors coincides with airdrops on targets near the border.

As for the resistance, whether Palestinian or Lebanese (and Israel is aware of this), all available information indicates its awareness and deep knowledge of the nature of the enemy, its plans, and what it hides, and it also has something to surprise the enemy with. It has demonstrated this in the theaters of operations and battlefields and during previous Israeli attacks, and it will not accept changing the rules of combat and the deterrence equations that have been achieved through its steadfastness, its heroic combat performance, and our great people's embrace of it and the enormous sacrifices it has made.

As for Iran, its leaders have stated that they have prepared for this possibility, whether by developing their long-range missiles, air defenses, or sleeper cells, and organizing a target bank corresponding to the Israeli target bank declared against it, including the depth of the Israeli presence in occupied Palestine, in addition to the American bases that will participate in the aggression against it, with the movement of sleeper cells and the closure of sea lanes. According to the developments of the aggression.
Finally, Netanyahu's summoning of the opposition leader on Saturday to the security briefing session, in the presence of senior military leaders, is evidence that Netanyahu is seeking to confirm the opposition's support for a renewed escalation on the fronts where Israel bombed.