A Defense Intelligence Agency document recently revealed as part of a collection of leaks of classified Pentagon documents says the United States believes it can pressure Israel into providing "lethal assistance" to Ukraine, the US anti-war website reported.

And the image of the document circulating on the Internet shows that it identifies four possible scenarios in order from the most plausible to the least plausible, which could lead to Israel supplying weapons to the government of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zalensky, according to the document listed under "top secret" titled "Israel: Paths to Providing Lethal Aid to Ukraine." It is dated February 28, 2023.

Antiwar.com states that it has not been able to verify the photo's authenticity, but its contents match reports from media outlets with access to documents that US officials have said are authentic, including The New York Times.

The first and most plausible scenario identified by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) intelligence analysis is that Israel could adopt the "Turkish model" in its dealings with Ukraine under pressure from the United States. (The Turkish model means selling arms to Ukraine through third parties while publicly calling for peace talks to end the war, as Ankara has done throughout the conflict.)

The second scenario is if Russia provides Iran with more advanced equipment, such as the Russian Su-35 fighters, or expands its support for Iranian weapons programs, and Israel responds by providing lethal aid to Kiev.

The third scenario is if Israel requests expanded US support for "anti-Iranian activities" in response to Russia's permitting of Iranian conventional weapons advanced through Syria. In exchange for US support for Israeli operations against Iran, Israel will provide lethal aid to Ukraine.

According to experts, the background provided for the third scenario indicates that Israel has already requested US support for its operations against Iran. This background reads (according to the document in question): “Israeli defense leaders call for increased risk to confront Iran, including proposing bilateral US-Israeli operations. Israel has regularly requested overflights of high-tech intelligence (ATG base) to support its strikes in Syria.”

The ATG most likely refers to al-Tanf, a US base in southern Syria, as the Wall Street Journal reported in July 2022 that the US and Israel were coordinating on Israeli airstrikes in Syria launched from the direction of ATG (Al-Tanf) according to the report. The vast majority of Israeli air strikes passing through the Al-Tanf ATG base have been approved by the United States.

A fourth, and less plausible, scenario is if Russia suffers loss of life from Israeli airstrikes in Syria it may start shooting at Israeli planes, prompting Israel to change its calculus about lethal aid to Ukraine.

Since the publication of the document on February 28, Israel has dramatically escalated its airstrikes in Syria, including the one that killed two members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. But at this point, there is no indication that Israel has pledged to provide the "lethal aid" Washington wants.

The American Axios website had reported on March 15 that Israel had agreed to export to Ukraine an anti-drone jamming system, which uses electronic warfare to shoot down drones. The site attributed to Israeli officials (at the time) as saying that this export does not mean that their position has changed because the system does not contain live ammunition that can kill the Russians. The Axios report said Israel first notified Ukraine that it would approve the export on February 15, before the CIA analysis was published.

The Defense Intelligence Document (DIA) said there are three Israeli weapons systems the US hopes can be sent to Kiev, including the Barak-8 (surface-to-air) missile system, the Spyder air defense system, and the Spike and Penetrator ATGM, the Israeli equivalent of the Javelin system. American Javelin anti-tank.