ARAB AND WORLD
Sun 26 Mar 2023 11:32 am - Jerusalem Time
Saudi Arabia is seeking a way out of the Yemen war, eight years after the start of its military operations
Eight years after the first blows of its military campaign in Yemen , Saudi Arabia is seeking to find a way out of the Yemen war, and to focus on its ambitious projects at home, despite the slim hopes of achieving lasting peace in the poorest country of the Arabian Peninsula.
Saudi Arabia may find in the agreement to resume relations with Iran, which supports the Houthis in Yemen and is accused by Riyadh of smuggling weapons to them, an impetus for its endeavor to end what appeared over the past years as a proxy war between the two regional powers.
Ahmed Naji, an expert at the International Crisis Group, told AFP that while Saudi Arabia is keen to bring about major social and economic changes in the kingdom, it is also seeking to "transform its approach in Yemen from a military strategy to a soft security and political strategy."
Naji believes that "military operations such as air strikes" may now probably stop, explaining that the priority is "a diplomatic solution."
The Saudi intervention began at the head of a military coalition on March 26, 2015, after the Houthis took control of the capital, Sanaa, and moved towards other areas in the impoverished country.
Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed for direct and indirect reasons, while 4.5 million people have been internally displaced, and more than two-thirds of the population lives below the poverty line, according to United Nations estimates.
A UN-brokered ceasefire between April and October led to a significant reduction in hostilities.
Before the end of the armistice, the Kingdom had begun to negotiate with the Houthis through back channels, including talks that took place between the two parties in the neighboring Sultanate of Oman.
Analysts say that Riyadh's priority now is securing the border areas and stopping missile attacks and booby-trapped drones that targeted its important oil facilities.
Naji says, "Saudi Arabia is currently negotiating with the Houthis to reach understandings that will enable it to secure its border lands while preserving its influence" in the areas controlled by the Yemeni government.
"This new approach may enable Saudi Arabia to maintain its position as a major player in Yemeni internal politics, to ensure that the kingdom is not affected by security threats in case the conflict continues at the local level," he added.
The stated aim of the Saudi intervention was to protect civilians from Houthi attacks, restore government authority, and prevent Yemen from becoming a haven for Iranian-backed forces.
But eight years later, the rebels still control large swathes of the country and possess a large arsenal of weapons that they have also used in missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the other important member of the coalition.
The resumption of these attacks threatens Saudi Arabia's endeavor to turn into a center for business, tourism, entertainment and sports, as part of its economic diversification plan to stop relying entirely on oil.
And Saudi Arabia, which has been closed for decades, is building the future city of Neom, worth $ 500 billion, and many resorts and tourist attractions.
"There is a great focus in Saudi Arabia now on development, tourism and mega projects," says a political expert involved in negotiations between Riyadh and the Houthis, on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the media. For Riyadh, there are fears that "anything that involves conflict" will harm investment and stability.
The expert states that the informal talks with the Houthis are now ripening to turn into a possible "understanding" that could pave the way for a lesser Saudi military role before the Yemeni dialogue between the internal conflict parties under the auspices of the United Nations.
"They want to move from some form of Saudi-Houthi understanding, to the ability to hand this understanding over to a broader process of the United Nations. (...) They seek to wash their hands and avoid the repercussions of any future escalation in the conflict," he says.
"They are ... stuck in a very costly quagmire on all levels," he says.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan confirmed this month, during a visit to Moscow, the existence of "efforts to first reach a permanent ceasefire, and then launch a political process between the Yemeni parties to end this crisis."
"We will continue this dialogue, and there are dialogues across multiple tracks," the Saudi minister said.
On the other hand, Yemeni parties fear that any Iranian-Saudi agreement will come at the expense of the authority, such as the kingdom withdrawing from the conflict amid guarantees that it will not be targeted and leaving the government alone in the face of the rebels who almost controlled the entire country had it not been for the Saudi intervention in March 2015.
A Saudi official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the kingdom "shares a long border with Yemen and we certainly will not tolerate any threat to our security."
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Saudi Arabia is seeking a way out of the Yemen war, eight years after the start of its military operations