A few years ago, the Saudi Crown Prince considered the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran the "Hitler of the Middle East," but now he has given the green light to a surprising reconciliation deal with Tehran that is in keeping with a new era of regional rapprochement.

When he was only 29 years old, Prince Mohammed bin Salman , then Minister of Defense, launched a fierce attack on the Houthi rebels in Yemen, but the kingdom is now engaged in back-channel talks that may eventually lead to expelling Saudi forces from the war.

In recent years, he has also worked to mend bitter differences with his regional adversaries such as Qatar and Turkey, and even presented his country as a possible mediator for the war in Ukraine.

Analysts said that Prince Mohammed bin Salman has now shifted from an element of "instability" to an unprecedentedly pragmatic authority figure, even if it is too early to know whether his de-escalation measures will succeed.

Omar Karim, an expert on Saudi foreign policy at the University of Birmingham, said that the agreement with Iran in particular "represents a radical change in his political approach," indicating "a more realistic maturity and understanding of regional politics."

However, the transition process is not yet complete, as the agreement with Iran still needs to be implemented, as embassies are scheduled to reopen by the second week of May after seven years of diplomatic estrangement.

++ Saudi Arabia and Syria are holding talks regarding the resumption of consular services between the two countries, after a rupture that has been going on for years as a result of Riyadh closing its embassy in Damascus due to its anti-regime stance, according to a Saudi Foreign Ministry official Thursday.

++ The kingdom closed its embassy in Damascus and withdrew all diplomats and staff in March 2012, about a year after the outbreak of the conflict in Syria, where Riyadh supported groups opposing the regime and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Whatever happens next, Riyadh's agenda is clear: reduce unrest abroad to maintain a focus on economic and social reforms at home.

"Our vision is a prosperous Middle East, because without your region developing with you, there are limits to what you can achieve," a Saudi official said, days after the Iran deal was announced.

Social reforms at home helped burnish Prince Mohammed's reputation internationally.

Under him, the kingdom, which had been closed for decades, sidelined the religious police, allowed women to drive, reopened cinemas, and began issuing tourist visas.

The Public Investment Fund has made a series of costly investments in all sectors, from buying Newcastle United Football Club to investing in Nintendo, the electronic games company.

These large-scale investments have highlighted how the "Vision 2030" reform agenda can reduce the dependence of the world's largest crude exporter on fossil fuels.

There were widespread concerns about the escalation of repression against dissidents and rights activists, especially after the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in his country's consulate in Istanbul in 2018. But Saudi officials also realized how security threats, especially from Iran, threaten Prince Mohammed's grand plans.

These threats culminated in September 2019, with attacks on Saudi oil facilities in the east of the country that temporarily halved crude production, for which the Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibility.

Riyadh and Washington accused Tehran of being behind the major attack, which the Iranians denied.

Analysts and diplomats said that this incident was a game changer, prompting Saudi Arabia to pursue a more conciliatory path.

Saudi officials were deeply disappointed by the tepid response from then-US President Donald Trump's administration, which they considered had undermined the "oil-for-security" theory that had defined the partnership between Riyadh and Washington for decades.

"The Saudis were shocked that the Americans did nothing to protect them," an Arab diplomat based in Riyadh told AFP.
A similar paradoxical scene unfolded last year in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city on the Red Sea coast, when the Houthis bombed an oil facility near a Formula 1 racetrack while drivers were on the track.

“Saudi officials told us ‘we need to focus on megaprojects’,” the diplomat recalls, referring to the futuristic mega-city of NEOM and an emerging arts hub in the country’s northernmost city, Al-Ula.

"If one missile falls on Neom or Al-Ula, there will be no investment or tourism. The vision will collapse," he added.

In restoring his relationship with Iran, Prince Mohammed did not go it alone. Kuwait and the UAE restored full diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic last year.

But analysts said the Saudi-Iranian deal is more important because the two countries have found themselves on opposite sides of conflicts across the region, not only in Yemen but also in Lebanon and Iraq.

"Reducing tensions with Iran is a smart way to lower tensions across the region and de-escalate some of the proxy battles surrounding Saudi Arabia," said Anna Jacobs of the International Crisis Group.

The next step to implement the agreement will be a meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries, the date of which has not been set yet.

Earlier this week, an Iranian official said that President Ebrahim Raisi had received an invitation to visit Saudi Arabia from King Salman, the father of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but Riyadh has yet to confirm this.

These meetings will be closely watched amid concerns that the rapprochement remains fragile and could easily derail.
Jacobs noted "a deep mistrust between Saudi Arabia and Iran," adding, "Both sides will need to see positive signs from each other very soon to move forward with the agreement."