Where is the Russian-Ukrainian war? scenarios!!!???

Written by: Wasef Erekat / military expert and analyst
The direct cause of the outbreak of World War I was the assassination of Austria's Crown Prince Franz Ferdinand with his wife by a Serbian student named Gafer Yelo Princip on June 28, 1914 during their visit to Sarajevo. As for the secondary causes, they are represented by colonial rivalry and conflict over colonies and control of the seas between Germany and France. And Britain and the tense situation inside Europe because of disputes on the borders and nationalist tendencies demanding independence. The direct cause of World War II is Germany's invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939, in addition to Britain and France declaring war on Germany on September 3, 1939, following calls by German currents for revenge after the Versailles Treaty that took place after Germany's defeat in World War I in 1939. 1918. ‏
The Russian military operation against the current Ukraine is considered by America and European countries as the direct cause of a third world war or something similar to it, noting that this operation came as a result of American-European incitement of Ukraine to confront Russia and its failure to implement the (Normandy formula) Minsk Agreement 2014 and by turning their back on the demands Russia represented by security guarantees that include Ukraine’s neutrality and non-joining of NATO and the cessation of NATO’s expansion towards Russian lands and that the Ukrainian lands do not pose a threat to Russia. Exhausting the elements of its strength and the elements of its steadfastness within a comprehensive war, military, economic, media, cultural, social, and fighting until the last Ukrainian soldier with the aim of prolonging the process, so they seek Finland and Sweden to join NATO and continue to supply Ukraine with arms and combat equipment in addition to arming Poland and inciting it to control part of Western Ukraine, under the slogan of protection from Russian aggression, with the hope of the division of Ukraine. ‏
There are many reasons that lead to the expansion and continuation of the war, and some indications: the statements of the US Army Chief of Staff, Mark Milley, in a hearing before the Senate to approve the defense budget on Tuesday, May 5, that the United States army is on high alert and that the Russian attack on Ukraine "threatens Global security" and that there is no place for the second rank in the strategic competition between the US military and adversaries, as he said, we are witnessing the greatest challenge to our security and the security of Europe, and we are in confrontation with two global powers, China and Russia, as British Defense Minister Ben Wallace threatened Russia (in his response On Russian President Putin’s assertion of crushing Britain in ten minutes), saying whoever touches the lands, we will respond with a heavy blow, and stressed that the United Kingdom’s nuclear forces are at sea awaiting the moment of launch to destroy Russia and protect NATO, and before that the British Foreign Minister stated that her forces will officially enter Ukraine These statements coincide with the doubling of the blockade in all its forms on Russia (noting that Europe has also been affected by this blockade, and there is a European division over imposing sanctions on the energy sector) and the insistence on continuing to supply Ukraine with weapons, money and mercenaries
Possible war scenarios in light of the declared statements and positions:
The first scenario: Russia officially declaring war on Ukraine before the next Victory Day, May 9 (and this comes based on Russian intelligence information on American and European intentions and the extent of their direct and indirect interference in the war), allowing President Putin to announce general mobilization and call for reserves and recruitment, and this It means expanding the objectives of the military operation towards Mykolaiv, Odessa and the breakaway Transnistrian region of Moldava. Which raises the possibility of direct foreign military intervention. ‏
The second scenario: It is explained by the sudden announcement of the Belarusian maneuvers (although it comes in the context of responding to the Polish maneuvers, but it is another indication of escalation) that leads to Russia entering the war on the side of Russia. This also comes based on intelligence information about American and European intentions to intervene directly
The third scenario: With Western American support, the Polish army enters the western part of Ukraine under the pretext of protecting it from Russia. This possibility was mentioned by the Russian Director of Foreign Intelligence, Sergei Naryshkin, and attributed to a discussion that took place between Warsaw and Washington. This will lead to the participation of several parties in the war
The fourth scenario: Accusing Ukraine, with the support of America and the West, of Russia, of committing a "massacre" against civilians in the Izovstal factories in Mariupol (noting that Russia is working to get them out through safe passages), to confirm what Ukraine claims of previous massacres in Ukrainian cities and villages, especially in Bucha Which was visited by the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, while he was in Ukraine. The importance of this accusation lies in the presence of officers from NATO and perhaps Americans as well among the besieged groups in the factory tunnels and they want to hide the matter and save them, and use this accusation as a pretext for military intervention in its various forms.
The fifth scenario: It is explained by the West and America's focus on Russia's intention to use chemical weapons or genocide to justify its direct intervention in the war against Russia. America had used this accusation against the Syrian army as a prelude to attacking it. The American-Hollywood scenario is ready to be directed, especially since US Secretary of Defense Austin is at the forefront of those who said that the war in Ukraine is changing and the coming weeks will be decisive.
Scenario Six: Accusing Russian submarines of targeting global internet cables through which all information of the global financial system passes under the sea, as well as digital warfare and cyberspace extending from the land to the depths of the sea, leading to a clash and direct US-Western military intervention.
The seventh scenario: While all parties are keen to avoid any clash, the possibility of a development in the field situation as a result of America and Europe continuing to train the Ukrainians and provide them with weapons and lethal combat equipment and incite them to fight or provide them with sensitive intelligence information on Russian targets through satellites and turn it into a confrontation between Russian aviation, American or European aviation, or between submarines, remains in place
As for the type of war, this depends on the objectives of it, and is it in the context of deterring Russia or in the context of supporting Ukraine to regain its lands, or a rolling war according to field development, and who are the countries that will participate in it, for example, NATO countries with American support? It will be matched by China, North Korea and other countries? Will it be accompanied by land invasions and border crossings? The expectation is that it will be different from typical traditional wars by using modern technology, targeting communications, satellites, control and command centers, airports, vital and strategic points, and supply routes to countries, and paralyzing their defensive and offensive capabilities through the use of preemptive strikes through modern aircraft and advanced weapons such as long-range heavy artillery and missiles. Russian hypersonics such as the intercontinental "Sarmat" that weighs 200 tons and destroys countries the size of France or Texas, in addition to Russian nuclear-armed ballistic missiles that produce destructive radiation such as the recently announced "Poseidon" missile. In contrast, there are similar modern weapons and combat equipment. In the US Army and Western can also be used. ‏
Possible war scenarios correspond to a scenario of a possible breakthrough through Russia being satisfied with what it has achieved in paralyzing the capabilities of the Ukrainian army and military control over the regions of Donbas, Mariupol, Kherson, Crimea and the land corridor, and strengthening this presence and announcing their annexation to Russia on the day of the victory celebration on May 9. And this depends on the positions of America and Europe and their ability to influence, especially Macron _ Putin, Chinese President Ping _ Putin, taking into account the high cost paid by Russia and Ukraine, along with the world, behind this war, so the expectations are difficult, the calculations are complex, the ambitions are many, and the calculations of profit Losses, interests and seizing opportunities are wide and wide
And the answer remains in the custody of Putin and Biden??? ‏