The Israeli Elections: A Turning Point or Stalling in the Same Place?

Written by: Hani Al-Masry
Although falling into the game of betting on one camp over another in Israel is completely lost, as it frustrates the potential for advancing the Palestinian factor, which is the only factor that can produce the desired effect, and suggests the ability to influence depending on a temporary fleeting moment resulting from the difference of the right over Netanyahu’s personality. And in light of the receding differences between the parties, and the dominance of extremist trends and elements that work to liquidate the Palestinian cause in various forms; It is necessary to follow the Israeli elections; Because everything that happens in Israel, positively or negatively, affects Palestine, and vice versa.

There are multiple Palestinian and Arab opinions in this matter (elections), as they are in various matters. There are those who prefer that Israel be ruled by an extremist, racist government, to bury, as some believe, the illusions of reviving the so-called "peace process" and the option of negotiations to reach a "two-state solution", which is a muddle. Dreams, the peace process is dead, and bones cannot be revived while they are rotten, and some prefer them; Because he is betting that Israel's fascism and extremism will turn the world or democratic, liberal and progressive countries and parties against it. This is a point of view that ignores the terrible suffering resulting from the policies and actions of such an extremist government on the Palestinians and the region as a whole, and that the world is preoccupied with other crises, especially in the West, towards the right and the spread of fascist and extremist tendencies, and tolerates fascist groups, just as it tolerated fascist groups in Ukraine.

Palestinian and Arab circles also prefer a right-center-left government, such as the current government of Yair Lapid, as it is less extreme, ignoring that the right-wing parties participating in it have the right of veto, which eliminates any possibility of a real differentiation between the government and a right-wing government, in addition to the fundamental differences, if any, between this government. The Netanyahu government is not concerned with the Palestinian cause and how to deal with the Palestinians. The difference here is limited to the form when Lapid sweetly talks about the "two-state solution" to sow dust in the eyes, without presenting a plan, but rather does everything that would eliminate any possibility of the establishment of a Palestinian state, and perhaps the aggressive escalation in all its forms in the West Bank and against In recent months, the Gaza Strip appears to be a government that has outperformed the right-wing government in terms of its practical practices.

A government headed by Netanyahu or headed by Lapid are two sides of the same coin.

In conclusion, the two sides are two sides of the same coin, and this phrase has become more applicable than ever to the formation of a right-wing government headed by Netanyahu, or a mixed one headed by Gantz or Lapid.

Despite the foregoing, the Israeli elections may be a turning point for the worse if Benjamin Netanyahu is able to form a government, with the participation of the extreme right parties, especially the religious Zionist party. Polls form the government alone, just as the other camp cannot form the government alone.

And if surprises do not occur in the last moments, which are possible in light of the fact that the Netanyahu camp needs only one or two seats, and the Lapid Gantz camp needs 4-5 seats, then the crisis that Israel has been going through for about 4 years will continue, and in this case it could Lapid's government will continue as a caretaker government until the sixth elections are held next spring.

Before moving on to dealing with the impact of forming a government headed by Netanyahu, it is necessary to address the sub-scenarios that could occur, such as the Gantz-Netanyahu alliance to form the government alternately; Where Gantz will be its president for the first two years, and then Netanyahu for the next two years. This is a possible scenario, and Gantz himself referred to it, and of course he is his favorite, and perhaps such a government is preferred by Netanyahu now under the Democratic Biden administration, because it does not put him at the mercy of Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich and does not expose him to international criticism.

There is another sub-scenario, based on the possibility of a rebellion within the Likud against Netanyahu, as he is the obstacle to the formation of a purely right-wing government. Because Netanyahu's resignation comes with an agreement regarding the mitigation of the charges against him, which would prevent him from serving a prison sentence. Within this scenario, a pure right-wing government could easily be formed. In all the polls, there is an overwhelming majority for the right-wing parties (two-thirds of the seats are right), and what prevents them from agreeing to form the government is one main point, which is the disagreement over Netanyahu's personality. This scenario has a low probability, and what prevents it from being realized is the absence of bold leadership figures in the Likud who are able to challenge Netanyahu, in light of the latter’s tightening of his grip on the party in its internal elections that took place two months ago, and undermining the influence of his competitors, in addition to the Likud’s fear that removing Netanyahu will lead to To the decline in the weight of the Likud and the possibility of its cracking into two or more parties.

What is the danger of forming a government headed by Netanyahu and with the participation of religious right-wing parties?

The danger of this government is that the extremist "religious Zionism" party will be a main partner in it, and polls give it from 11 to 15 seats, and thus it will be the third party after "Likud" and "There is a Future", and this will leave fingerprints that add more extremism to the steps of the right. and the Likud in particular; Where the displacement of Palestinians from within the lands of 48 to the West Bank and from the West Bank to the outside will be on the table, and the Israeli citizenship will be withdrawn from Arabs on a large scale, and the shooting and aggression against the Palestinians in all its forms will be more than before, including the continuation of the Judaization of Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa at greater and faster rates, and imposing Israeli laws on the West Bank, leading to the annexation of parts of it.

What could make such extreme scenarios more or less likely are the following:

First: That the Republicans in the United States obtain, or not obtain, a majority in Congress, during the midterm elections that will be held in a few days, and this, if it happens, will turn US President Biden into a lame duck; Because the presence of a Democratic president in the White House constrains the Israeli government, even if he is a Zionist as Biden himself knows, to the point of saying recently: "If Israel does not exist, then it must be found."

Things will get worse if Donald Trump or a candidate similar to him succeeds in the elections that will be held after two years, and this possibility is strong and cannot be underestimated, and this will open the door to more extreme scenarios.

Second: That the Palestinian situation remain in a state of weakness, division and disorientation, and this opens the appetite of extremists for more extremism; Where the people are currently rising to defend themselves, their land, and their rights without leadership, vision, or new alternative strategies that have reached a dead end, or start to rise and regain the initiative, and then they will curb extremist plans.

Third: If the Arab situation remains as it is, it will encourage Israel to more extremism with more fragmentation, and the spread of the policies of Arab normalization and subordination to Israel without an Arab project capable of advancing the Arabs and taking them the place that the Arab peoples deserve in this world, which is being tossed by waves, storms, and changes. Especially after the Ukrainian war and its possible consequences so far.

Fourth: The course, consequences and possible scenarios of the Ukrainian war will severely affect the Palestinians, the region and the world, and will it head towards a settlement, or will it continue at its current rates more or less, or will it turn into a world war? Will a new crisis and war with Taiwan emerge, especially after the renewal of current Chinese President Xi Jinping in the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, which will open the door for him to win a third term in the Chinese elections next year? And who will emerge victorious in the ongoing global war or that may break out, and who will be defeated, or will the outcome be balanced without a winner or loser? Will it accelerate or not accelerate the emergence of a new world, and how it will be: bipolar, multipolar, or another unpredictable type? done since now?

The rise of the Palestinian worker is the decisive factor

Activating the Palestinian role within a new vision, new strategies, and one leadership is the most important and decisive factor that can influence the policy of any Israeli government, regardless of whether it is ruled by the right, the left, or a mixture of the right, the center, and the left. This requires the Palestinians to activate their role in reviving the national project, and arranging their home, and rebuilding the institutions of the national umbrella institution (the Liberation Organization) on the basis of a comprehensive vision and a new leadership that reviews past experiences and draws lessons and lessons from them; Where new strategies are adopted, and wrong and losing bets are stopped, whether on reviving the so-called "peace process" and the Israeli and American changes, or on the Arab, regional and international changes. The wager must first be on the people, who have always proven that they are ready to continue their liberation path, and on the justice and moral supremacy of the cause. After that, the Arab and international factors can be activated and mobilized, and the power supporting the Palestinian cause and the struggle of the Palestinians to achieve their goals and rights can be relied upon.

If the new glorious phenomena such as the Resistance Brigades, especially the Jenin Brigade and the "Black's Den", were able to bring about a kind of popular revival and confuse the occupation, which are individual local phenomena with little organization without leadership, no central idea, and no national political, programmatic and organizational incubator, Under an inappropriate Arab or international circumstance, what can be achieved by a single leadership crystal that forms a unified national leadership for the resistance, defines national goals and appropriate forms of resistance at each stage, takes into account the special circumstances of each grouping, and subjects the resistance to one strategy, one leadership, and a determined will On confrontation until victory?