ARAB AND WORLD
Wed 15 Mar 2023 9:16 pm - Jerusalem Time
The earthquake delays the election campaign of the divided Turkish opposition
Istanbul (AFP) - Turkey 's divided political opposition was supposed to agree on Monday on a common candidate to challenge Recep Tayyip Erdogan's 20-year hold on power, via the ballot box.
However, the catastrophe of the earthquake that killed more than 35,000 people in Turkey and Syria led to the postponement of a meeting that was scheduled in this regard, and cast doubts over the date of the elections in May.
In this context, sources of the ruling party and the opposition are actively promoting that Erdogan will postpone the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for May 14, in the wake of the worst disaster that Turkey has witnessed in modern times.
"This will change things, not only for the government but for the opposition as well," says Berk Esen, assistant professor of political science at Sabanci University in Istanbul.
Likewise, experts believe that the earthquake and any delay in voting could be factors that change the political landscape, which may represent new opportunities and risks.
Thus, Erdogan's opponents have more time to reach a consensus after the Monday meeting was postponed to an unspecified date, in light of their inability to agree on a candidate for more than a year.
Analysts believe that they should use the time wisely, trying to capitalize on public anger in light of the massive scale of the devastation, without appearing to seek political gain from the tragedy.
In this context, Anthony Skinner, a political risk advisor, says, "The terrifying events have given the political opposition new ammunition against the government - ammunition driven by popular anger and resentment."
Erdogan has not said a word about the elections since the earthquake, but he appears on television several times a day, consoling the survivors and comforting the nation.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, a former civil servant who enjoys tepid national support and heads Turkey's main secular party, has long been seen as the frontrunner to take on Erdogan.
Meral Aksener of the nationalist "Good" party rejects this idea, and seems to support the popular opposition mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, instead.
"The opposition was in a very precarious position," says Eisen, with many divisions. He adds that the most likely scenario is that Kilicdaroglu will become the opposition candidate because "it will be very difficult" for someone else to lead a large-scale electoral campaign at a time of national mourning.
Experts consider that elections in May are out of the question, but they could take place in June, which is the last date for holding them according to the constitution.
Erdogan cannot postpone the elections to a later date, without amending the constitution. Therefore, he needs a two-thirds majority in Parliament, or 400 votes, noting that he and his allies on the far right have 333 votes, which means that he will need the opposition to support a longer delay.
Sinem Adar, a fellow at the Center for Applied Turkish Studies in Berlin, says that one of the pillars of the opposition's strategy should be ensuring elections are held by June.
This comes as Aksener is pushing for elections in June.
In this context, she told reporters last week, "It is our duty as politicians to hold these elections."
But the opposition was also divided in its response to the earthquake. Aksener chose to remain silent and avoid the quake-hit areas in the early days, while Kilicdaroglu visited the affected areas seeking to console the victims.
He attacked Erdogan, accusing him of failing to prepare Turkey for earthquakes.
He also appeared on Saturday with the pro-Kurdish leader in earthquake-hit Diyarbakir, which is the only province that did not vote for Erdogan's coalition in the 2018 elections.
For their part, the opposition mayors of Istanbul and Ankara published pictures of municipal employees assisting in rescue efforts, removing rubble and providing hot food to survivors.
As for Aksener, she said she waited 72 hours to avoid being an obstacle to rescue efforts.
Adar says that the earthquake may lead to sharp divisions in the ranks of the opposition, and this is evident in the differences over the candidate and the roles that each party will play.
Although Eisen warns against focusing too much on the different reactions after only a week has passed, he believes that they show a lack of coordination between the opposition parties.
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The earthquake delays the election campaign of the divided Turkish opposition