Washington - "Jerusalem" dot com Saeed Erekat - By the end of this year, experts in the US capital, Washington, believe that the developments in the war in Ukraine will constitute difficult new tests in the coming year 2023 regarding the red lines imposed by the United States and Western countries on the weapons they provide to Ukraine.

Crossing these red lines may become more difficult as the war continues, and dispatching some advanced combat aircraft such as the US-made F-16s, American and German-made tanks, and Ukrainian-made drones becomes more complex in the short term in the capitals. The West is especially concerned with the sizes that can change the balance of the battle on the ground.

A group of experts told the American Politico magazine that the continuation of fierce close-quarters fighting in Bakhmut and the increasing stability of the front lines in the south and east of the country warn that the war will continue. They also believe that “it is true that the United States and Europe already have billions more dollars coming their way to keep Ukraine fighting until a way to end the war emerges, but the question for the West and Ukraine now is: what kind of end should they pursue, and how do we get there?” "

That response likely hinges in large part on what new weapons the United States and its European allies will agree to send to Kiev in the coming months, current and former officials say.

Politico attributes to retired General Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US Army in Europe, that a miscalculation of the type and volume of weapons that Washington is sending to Kiev may have serious consequences, as "the (US) administration will use its best judgment on how you can help Ukraine as much as possible without Will this turn into a conflict between the United States and Russia or NATO and Russia?

And while Ukraine's leaders argue that long-range missiles and modern battle tanks — weapons that many countries consider off limits — are the only way to advance entrenched Russian positions and end the conflict, U.S. officials still debate the effectiveness of those weapons in the next field battle and whether to send the weapons they demand. Ukraine would provoke Russia to escalate the conflict to more dangerous levels that could lengthen the timetable for potential peace talks.

Hodges says such talks are not on the horizon, despite Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's suggestion this week that Kiev is open to UN-brokered discussions by February, the one-year anniversary of the war's start, but only after Russia faces a court. War crimes, a demand the Kremlin is unlikely to accept.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's top priority remains more weapons, ammunition and equipment. Zelensky made his pleas for more advanced weapons during his surprise visit to Washington last week. And while President Joe Biden remained unimpressed by some requests for tanks, fighter jets and missiles, the visit saw some big announcements about expanding military support, with Washington deciding to soon build a new Patriot air defense battery and precision bombs, both of which were seen as semi-automatic. Impossible or impractical just weeks ago.

The massive influx of weapons into Ukraine over the past 10 months represents a significant shift from Washington's previous approach to Kiev. After Russian President Vladimir Putin's 2014 annexation of Crimea, then-US President Barack Obama's administration refused to provide offensive weapons to Ukraine, choosing instead to provide uncontroversial training programs and equipment such as night-vision goggles. The Pentagon did not agree to send Javelin anti-tank weapons until the Trump administration - and even then it stipulated that Javelin missiles should be stored in the western part of the country, away from the front lines.

He states that when it comes to weapons, Washington's red lines have changed again and again since the invasion last February; In the course of a week in March, the United States and NATO pushed more than 17,000 Javelin shells into Ukraine, a deluge of weapons that shattered the political firewall that pervaded through the Obama and Trump administrations. In the spring, the Biden administration began supplying 155mm howitzers. Then, in June, the Pentagon announced that it would send the M142 High Mobility Artillery Missile System, a state-of-the-art missile launcher that Kiev has used with lethal efficacy, and which took months of wrangling to convince the Biden administration to send.

And the announcement that the United States will soon transfer a Patriot battery and aerial smart bombs, the latest of several weapons packages considered escalatory earlier in the war, points to more potential policy changes next year as all sides look for a way to end the fighting.