Chinese diplomatic audacity to the test

Written by: Hamada Jabr

Chinese President Xi Jinping opened his unprecedented third presidential term, after the strong and ambitious president succeeded in canceling the constitutional article that limits the Chinese presidency to two terms as a maximum, by announcing his country’s success in mediating the restoration of diplomatic relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, which were severed seven years ago. Chinese diplomatic efforts preceded Iraqi and Omani attempts to bridge views between Saudi Arabia and Iran during the past two years, but the need for a guarantor of the agreement made Beijing the best address for announcing it, and Beijing hosted the negotiating delegations of the two countries in the period between 6-10 March. The United States of America, which said it was aware of the Chinese efforts, welcomed the agreement, but seemed surprised by the speed of reaching it, and questioned Iran's commitment to it.
China, which does not miss an opportunity to assert its global role, and its eligibility as a pole rival to the United States of America, is trying to maximize its international presence by employing its diplomacy based on the exchange of economic benefits and non-interference in the internal affairs of countries, in contrast to the American diplomacy that is based on hegemony and coercion. China has picked up on the signals emanating from Saudi Arabia that indicate its strained relationship with the Biden administration, through Saudi Arabia’s failure to adopt the US position in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and its response to the Biden administration’s request from it to increase its oil production, whose high prices strained Americans’ pockets ahead of the midterm elections last fall. by reducing production. These signals encouraged China to present itself as a superpower looking to expand its influence on the basis of partnership with the countries of the region. Last December, Saudi Arabia hosted the Chinese president to hold three Arab, Gulf, and Saudi-Chinese summits, opening the door wide for Chinese investments in the region through its "Belt and Road" strategic initiative.
China, whose economy is thirsty for oil after the beginning of recovery from the "Corona" crisis, is also seeking to promote common economic interests with Saudi Arabia, which supplies China with about a fifth of its oil needs. In Al-Maqayel, to achieve its Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia needs the expertise of Chinese companies in several areas, including building infrastructure in projects such as airports, roads and bridges. China is Saudi Arabia's first trading partner for the last 5 years, and trade exchange between the two countries has increased nearly thirty times since 2000. Trade exchange between them has grown from about $3 billion in 2000 to about $90 billion in 2022.
As for Iran, whose economy is burdened and shackled by Western sanctions and has few friends, it signed a strategic agreement with China that extends for a quarter of a century, through which it opened to China influence over it that no one shares with it. Today, Iran seems more in need of its few partners such as China and Russia to enable it to resist Western sanctions that led to a historic decline in the value of its currency, especially with the widespread and ongoing popular protests since the killing of the young woman, Mahsa Amini, by the morality police during her arrest last September. Therefore, Iran has no choice but to show some flexibility to take steps towards freezing the activities of its arms against Saudi interests in the region.
On the other hand, the urgent priority that Saudi Arabia wants to achieve through this agreement with Iran is to get rid of the burden of its war in Yemen, and to provide some of the stability it needs to devote itself to the completion of giant projects in achieving its Vision 2030 and its endeavor to diversify the sectors of its economy. However, it appears that Iran's nuclear project, which Saudi Arabia opposes, is not included in the provisions of this agreement, perhaps relying on Israel to deal with this file. Israel seemed to be the biggest loser from this agreement. From the first moment of its announcement, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said, "The Saudi-Iranian agreement is a complete failure and a danger for the Israeli government's foreign policy... It is a collapse of the regional defensive wall that we started building against Iran." Israel, which aspired to normalize its relations with Saudi Arabia to confront the common "enemy" Iran, may now not find what it can offer Saudi Arabia to normalize its relations with it.
The multiplicity, complexities and differences of viewpoints on issues of common interest between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the regional rivalry between them, may make the choice of Chinese diplomacy to mediate the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran as its first diplomatic intervention in the region, a bold choice full of challenges and reasons for failure more than reasons for success. Therefore, Chinese diplomacy will be tested during and after the next two months, as the announced agreement specified the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries within a maximum period of two months. China should not be surprised by the failure of the agreement, as Iran may freeze the activity of its "ideological" arms in the region until better conditions crystallize that make it uninterested in continuing to abide by what was agreed upon or will be agreed upon with Saudi Arabia under Chinese auspices. Likewise, Saudi Arabia may back down from its pragmatic stance towards Iran's nuclear project, especially if Iran does not cooperate with Saudi Arabia's urgent priority to end the war in Yemen, or if the current US administration changes with one that is more cooperative with it and more assertive towards Iran, especially if a Republican president is elected in the US elections. Next year.
In any case, and whatever the fate of the Saudi-Iranian agreement, the Chinese initiative to end the war in Ukraine that it announced last month, despite the likelihood of not dealing with it by the Americans and therefore the Europeans and the Ukrainians, and its initiative to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran, are initiatives that enhance China's international presence, and indicate On China's determination and perhaps ability to create a new international order that challenges American unipolarity.