The resumption of Saudi-Iranian relations... its effects on Middle East issues and their prospects

Written by: Wu Yihong

The two regional rivals in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran, from March 6 to 10, held extensive dialogues in Beijing for five days, mediated and sponsored by China, and finally reached an agreement on agreeing to resume diplomatic relations between the two countries, reopen embassies and representative offices of the two sides, and exchange Ambassadors within no more than two months.

The two sides pledged to "activate" the security cooperation agreement signed in 2001, as well as many agreements signed in 1998 related to economy, trade, investment, technology, science, culture, sports and youth.

The Saudi Minister of State, the Saudi National Security Adviser, Musaed bin Muhammad Al-Aiban, and the Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, led the two delegations to hold dialogues in Beijing.

Chairman of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee and Politburo member Wang Yi held talks with them respectively, and presided over the opening and closing ceremonies of the dialogue.

The outcome of the Beijing-Saudi Arabia dialogue and agreement to resume diplomatic relations is not only good news for Saudi Arabia and Iran, but also great news for peace in the Middle East and even world peace.

Both Saudi Arabia and Iran expressed their gratitude to Beijing for its diplomatic efforts, and international public opinion fully applauded the achievement.

Why did it happen in China and why is China capable of it?

In fact, before coming to Beijing for peace talks, the leaders of Iraq and Oman mediated on numerous occasions and invited senior officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran to go to the two countries for peace talks.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman immediately posted a tweet to express his congratulations after learning of the news of the two countries' decision to resume diplomatic relations, expressing sincere thanks to Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman for their tireless efforts that contributed to the success of the peace talks finally in Beijing.

Saudi Arabia and Iran chose Beijing as an ideal location for peace talks for three considerations:

First, the regional situation in the Middle East is changing. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the status of the Middle East as a "middle ground" for global strategic competition became more prominent.

Against the backdrop of great power rivalry, relations between Middle Eastern countries show a trend of relaxation, including relations between the Muslim Brotherhood camp led by Turkey and anti-Muslim Brotherhood camps such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan have signed agreements to normalize relations, while conflict between Saudi Arabia and other Sunni alliances and the Shiite group led by Iran has receded over the past ten years.

Therefore, it constitutes a new type of Middle Eastern system with sub-regional integration, the emergence of small multilateralism and "flexible multilateralism".

Second: China's strategic initiative accelerates Iran and Saudi Arabia's "going east" pace. In January 2016, Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran.

This was a very important visit by the head of state of China in the new era, and it symbolized China's intention to participate in the governance of the Middle East.

Within seven years after Xi Jinping's visit to the Middle East in 2016, Saudi Arabia and Iran signed the "Belt and Road" cooperation document with China. The two sides have carried out in-depth cooperation in trade and energy fields as well as cooperation in digital economy, 5G network, space and other fields.

Third: As the credibility of the United States continues to decline in the countries of the Middle East, the strategic autonomy of the countries of the Middle East is increasing.

The strategic mutual trust between Iran, Saudi Arabia and China has been continuously deepened, and mutual support for the sovereignty, security and development interests of other countries has been strengthened.

In December 2022, President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Saudi Arabia and attended the China-Saudi Arabia-China-Gulf Cooperation Council and China-Arab summits.

Last month, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi paid a state visit to China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping. Saudi Arabia and Iran sent two delegations to Beijing for dialogue, which represents recognition and confidence in China's sincere position.

Fourth: the common concept and unified goal. For a long time, Chinese, Arab, and Persian civilizations have known each other along the ancient Silk Road, learned from each other, and helped each other in facing changing international situations.

Similar historical experiences, the same dream of development, and mutual trust and support have brought China and Arab countries closer together.

In December last year, President Xi Jinping pointed out during his meeting with Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that China regards Saudi Arabia as an important power in the multipolar world.

Against the backdrop of profound and complex changes in the international and regional situation, the strategic and comprehensive nature of relations between China and Saudi Arabia has become more prominent.

China puts the development of relations with Saudi Arabia as a priority in its comprehensive diplomacy, especially its diplomacy in the Middle East, and is willing to work hand in hand with Saudi Arabia to achieve their national advancement, so as to upgrade the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz stated that Saudi Arabia and China have made good progress in recent years in the field of strategic cohesion and cooperation in various fields, and that there is an important consensus between the two sides on many issues, and that China's interests are also the interests of Saudi Arabia.

For his part, when Iranian President Raisi held talks with President Xi Jinping in Beijing last February, he made it clear that the friendship between Iran and China has been tested and will become stronger with time.

As two independent major countries, the relationship between Iran and China is based on the spirit of mutual respect, and they are sincere strategic partners who deserve mutual trust.

Iran's determination to deepen and strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership between Iran and China is unwavering and will not be affected by any changes in the international and regional situation. Global development cannot be achieved without global security.

Adapting to the deeply adjusted international situation in the spirit of unity, responding to complex and interwoven security challenges with a win-win mindset, eliminating the root causes of international conflicts, and improving global security governance are the concepts jointly advocated by the leaders of China, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

By adhering to this concept, China was able to mediate the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and created a new situation in the relationship between the two countries.

When talking about the important results of the Beijing-Saudi-Iranian dialogue, Wang Yi revealed that the Beijing dialogue was based on the consensus reached by the leaders of China, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and President Xi Jinping had expressed support from the very beginning.

The dialogue has also become a successful practice for the active implementation of the Global Security Initiative. As a bona fide and reliable mediator, China has faithfully fulfilled its duties as the host country.

Wang Yi emphasized that the success of the Saudi-Iranian peace talks is of long-term significance. Convey the success of the dialogue in providing positive and clear signals to the troubled world at the present time.

First, in addition to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there are many issues related to peace and people's livelihood in the world that require the attention of the international community and timely and appropriate handling by the relevant parties.

Secondly, no matter how complex the problem and how serious the challenge, as long as we conduct dialogue on equal terms in the spirit of mutual respect, we will surely find a solution acceptable to both sides.

Third, the Middle East belongs to the people of the Middle East, and the fate of the Middle East should be in the hands of the people of the Middle East. It is believed that the countries of the Middle East will enhance the spirit of independence, strengthen solidarity and cooperation, and work together to build a more peaceful, stable and prosperous Middle East.

This time, China contributed to the promotion of reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which serves the stability of the situation in the Middle East, and will also provide solutions to other problems in the region.

The research report of the Emirati "Super Trend Research and Consulting Center" indicated that the decision of Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations suggests that the policies and directions of the governments of the two countries have changed, as the two countries realized that they cannot continue in a state of competition and hostility, as calm and dialogue are the best ways for them and for all countries. region without exception.

Since 1979, Saudi-Iranian relations have been a barometer of political stability and security in the Middle East. Over the past few decades, political conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Iran have repeatedly and intensely unfolded at the level of the Sunni and Shiite sects of Islam, and each has built an alliance. Therefore, dialogue and reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran provided successful examples of solving problems in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and other countries.

The essence of the agreement can be summarized as follows: By establishing respect for national sovereignty, non-interference in their internal affairs, and distancing political conflicts between religion and state, it paves the way for future development.

--The effects of the Saudi-Iranian agreement on regional issues

The resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran will undoubtedly open the door for dialogue between the two countries to resolve fierce conflicts in the region, including the crisis in Yemen, which is a source of great concern to both countries.

Saudi Arabia entered the conflict with support for Iran's exiled opposition in 2015, while Iran supports the Ansar Allah group (Houthis), who seized the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, in 2014.

Diplomats have been searching for a way to end a conflict that has caused one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters and turned into a proxy war between Riyadh and Tehran. So the Saudi-Iranian agreement could boost efforts to end the conflict.

Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdul Salam said the region "needs normal relations between the two countries" in the wake of the Saudi-Iranian agreement.

In parallel, the political crisis in Lebanon may witness a breakthrough in the context of the Saudi-Iranian deal. The country is plunged into an economic and political crisis due to the deep divisions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia and Iran can help Lebanon form a government and arrange the economic situation together.

In addition, a Saudi-Iranian deal could impede Israel's plans to form a regional alliance against Tehran in accordance with the wishes of the United States, which would reduce the risk of any potential conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv spreading to other countries in the region. It may contribute to increasing cooperation between Riyadh and Tel Aviv to reach a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Increasing opportunities for economic and trade cooperation for the development and prosperity of the peoples of the entire region: The Saudi-Iranian agreement will help enable the two countries to activate trade and joint investment, both of which have great economic potential and large oil resources.

The settlement of the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran will undoubtedly help the countries of the region to contain the sources of funding for terrorist and violent organizations, contain terrorism and weaken its influence.

-- Possible factors affecting the success of the Saudi-Iranian agreement

There are a number of factors that could positively or negatively affect the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran:

First, the commitment of Iran and Saudi Arabia to implement the terms of the agreement will be the most important factor for the success of the agreement. This may lead not only to the return of calm and resolving problems in the region, but also to various partnerships between Iran and the GCC countries, as well as the return of Iranian-Egyptian relations.

Second, the intervention of the great powers. This comes despite the United States welcoming the agreement and some asserting that it is commensurate with what US President Joe Biden made clear during his visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel that de-escalation, diplomacy and deterrence are among the most important pillars of his policy towards Iran.

However, the United States is concerned that the deal, which was signed under the auspices of China, could exacerbate conflict and polarization between Democrats and Republicans in the United States. The actual position of the United States and European countries will become an influencing factor in the future relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Third, the positions of the Arab countries on the agreement. Arab countries in the region welcomed the resumption of diplomatic relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and considered this a step towards stability in the Middle East.

On the other hand, many Israeli sources expressed concern about the agreement. Believing that resolving the Saudi-Iranian dispute is not in Israel's interest, Israel seeks normalization with Saudi Arabia under the slogan of confronting the "enemy of Iran."

Saudi Arabia's resolution of its differences with Iran would also put it in a better position to face pressure from Israel and the United States to normalize relations with Israel.

--- Future prospects for the Saudi-Iranian agreement:

In the future, the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran will face the following scenarios:

First, the full resumption of bilateral relations: This is the most optimistic scenario, and it is also the hope of most countries in the region. In light of this situation, the crisis between the two countries and between Iran and most of the Arab countries began to fade away.

Secondly, the agreement led to the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries only for political and security coordination, but it did not achieve a comprehensive normalization of relations between the two countries.

Some Arab countries will only meet the door of dialogue with Tehran and limited cooperation in some security and economic issues. In this case, Israel and the United States will contribute to the continuation of Iran's hostile policy towards its neighbors, leaving the situation between Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and Iran unchanged.

Third, Saudi Arabia and Iran are satisfied with the resumption of diplomatic representation and the establishment of a limited dialogue, without reaching a final settlement on the outstanding issues between the two countries, or addressing other regional issues. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran will remain as it is, and relations between Arab countries and Tehran cannot be fully normalized.

Fourth, given the challenges of escalating external forces and various natural hazards such as epidemics, earthquakes, climate change, etc., it is in the interest of all actors in the Middle East to expedite the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran to solve common problems in the region and the countries of the Middle East work together to deal with challenges and threats external.

The resumption of diplomatic relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran is a good start, although there is still a long way to go before the full normalization of relations between the two countries. There may even be twists and turns and coordination of relations, and the selection of the interests involved will be complex and intense. But in any case, this is a fruitful pioneering step for China's diplomacy in the Middle East.

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