The Madar Strategic Report 2025 concluded that in 2024, Israel was able to contain the shock caused by the October 7 attacks and restore its strategic balance, with unprecedented American support and backing from major international powers. This allowed it to regain the initiative on the ground, adopt genocide to restore its deterrence, and direct the course of events towards an attempt to finally resolve the Palestinian issue. This was achieved by “legitimizing” the discourse of displacement and preparing for it in Gaza, replicating the form of harsh military intervention in the West Bank, alongside silent annexation, reshaping the relationship with the Palestinian Authority, and directly handing over the keys to managing the occupation to the settlers. This was in addition to adopting a broad regional bullying approach that expresses a new concept of deterrence that seeks to reshape the map of powers in the region.

The report, which was launched by Madar at a symposium held at its headquarters in Ramallah yesterday, added: “On the other hand, two counter-processes have deepened, with far-reaching, counterproductive repercussions. The first is external, represented by the acceleration of Israel’s transformation into a “pariah state,” whose name is globally associated with apartheid, neo-McCarthyism, and the global rise of neo-fascist movements. The second is an internal process, in which the political and societal division between the various Israeli movements and groups has intensified, and the conflicting groups have entered into a state resembling a “cold civil war,” open to the possibility of confrontation.

The report considered that the return of Donald Trump to power in the United States, with his entourage representing the far right, neoconservatives, and Christian Zionism, constitutes a strategic variable that will have profound effects on internal Israeli dynamics and on the Palestinian issue. His presence will strengthen Netanyahu's boldness in dismantling the "deep state," which is similar to Trump's own strategy in the United States. On the other hand, his presence may constitute a "golden opportunity" for the Israeli government to "liquidate the Palestinian issue" and transform the ideological projects proposed by Bezalel Smotrich in his "decisive plan" from theoretical projects into achievable projects.

Domino effect

The report focused on what it called the "domino effect" of the October 7 attack and the reshaping of the regional map, as Israel launched a multi-front war, characterized by an exceptional and unprecedented nature in terms of intensity, force, and timescale. The military operations extended to include Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Yemen, coinciding with the ongoing military escalation in the West Bank, and the intensification of surveillance policies and collective punishment against Palestinians inside Israel. This resulted in the destruction of Gaza, then the strategic weakening of Hezbollah, and ultimately the dismantling of the Iranian-backed axis of resistance.

Regarding the genocidal war on Gaza, the report considers that this war, with its apocalyptic spectacle and destructive images, aimed to achieve two goals: first, to transform Gaza into a deterrent means of demonstration against the region in general, and against countries and organizations it considers hostile in particular; and second, to transform it into a tool for achieving the "final resolution" of what it calls the "Gaza problem," by transforming the Strip into an uninhabitable area, with the aim of forcing the population into mass forced migration.

On the Lebanese front, the report analyzes the consequences of the battle with Hezbollah and the outcomes of the controlled support front in Gaza. The Israeli attacks resulted in thousands of fighters being harmed by the detonation of pagers and pagers, the assassination of Hezbollah leaders and its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, the disengagement between the northern and southern fronts, and the strategic damage inflicted on the party, exacerbated by the changes in Syria.

The report states that with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime—although there is no direct causal link between its downfall and the multi-front war—Iran and its axis lost a crucial strategic ally in the region, and vital supply lines that fed Lebanese Hezbollah, already exhausted by Israeli strikes, were cut off. Ultimately, the transformations directly impacted the Lebanese domestic political landscape, altering the balance of power between the various political factions.

Geo-regional transformations

The report focused on a set of radical strategic shifts in the geo-regional landscape, given their potential profound impact on future regional geo-strategic balances and Israel's status and role. It considered these shifts to be in a state of fluctuating dynamics, linked to the ambiguity and fluidity of the Syrian situation, and the potential for the conflict to revert to a regular Arab-Israeli conflict in light of the erosion of relations between Israel, Egypt, and Jordan, and the rising role of Saudi Arabia.

In Syria, the report believes it is too early to make a final judgment on the direction of field and political developments in Syria, given the fragility of the new regime and the risk of sliding into a new civil war. It is also not yet clear what form this transformation will take in future alliances, and whether it will lead, for example, to the emergence of a new Turkish-Sunni axis to replace the declining Iranian axis. This would have potential repercussions for regional conflicts and a potential Turkish-Israeli escalation involving Syria.

The report added: In the face of this uncertainty, Israel is actively preemptively intervening in the Syrian arena to control developments on the military (destroying the Syrian army) and field levels (establishing buffer zones) and attempting to win over non-Sunni sects.

Regarding the chances of reframing the conflict as an Arab-Israeli conflict, the report focuses on two strategic developments with significant future implications in the near term: First, the erosion of Egyptian and Jordanian relations with Israel, as Israel's repeated proposals to relocate Gaza's population to Sinai have provoked a sharp Egyptian-Jordanian reaction. Second, the shift in the Saudi role, as the kingdom is witnessing a significant strategic shift reflecting a broad ambition to reposition itself regionally, evident in its growing role in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza, and its strengthening position as a central regional power amid the decline of Iran's role.

Trump's Return... and Three Arms of "Liquidation"

The report devotes space to examining Donald Trump's return to power in the United States, coinciding with the rise of the right-wing Israeli government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu.

The report predicts that, with Trump in power, Israeli right-wing settler movements will redouble their efforts to ensure the continuation of Netanyahu's government until the end of its term in late 2026, exploiting the limited "time window" available to Netanyahu's government to liquidate the Palestinian cause through several means:

First: The arm of war for the purpose of displacement by intensifying the war on Gaza to force the population to emigrate. This is the optimal scenario for the Israeli government, and can be achieved by combining firepower, siege, and starvation, while opening an exit for the population through an Israeli gate. However, this scenario can be stopped with serious and genuine Arab intervention.

Second: The aggression against the West Bank by reshaping the map of the West Bank and undermining the role of the Palestinian Authority. In this context, several Israeli practices combine, including escalating military operations, the systematic destruction and displacement of the northern camps in Tulkarm and Jenin, and the expected gradual expansion of these camps into new areas, targeting UNRWA, hollowing out the West Bank economy, undermining the authority's powers and violating its presence, thus transforming it into an authority with very limited civil powers and no strategic significance.

Third: Annexation by law, as Israel moves towards transitioning from a policy of de facto annexation of Palestinian lands to a policy of formal legal annexation of part of the West Bank.

Internal recruitment developments

On the domestic Israeli front, the Madar report continues to examine the intractable, organic, and dual crisis created by the structure of the colonial-settler regime. This crisis is linked to the persistence, stubbornness, and escalation of the conflict with the Palestinian people on the one hand, and to the raging internal conflict between groups with opposing visions, particularly regarding religion-state relations, governance, and democratic values in the Jewish state on the other. Although the intensity of the internal conflict subsided after the October 7 attack, it has since deepened.

In this context, the report argues that this conflict is heading toward further escalation in light of Netanyahu's war against the state's professional institutions, including the judicial, security, and military institutions. The opposition believes that undermining these institutions would undermine the foundations of Israel's democratic system and lead to Netanyahu becoming an authoritarian ruler.

The report asserts: The dynamics of the internal conflict and the structural relationship between the alignments and the ethnic, social, and ideological identities of the warring camps indicate that the conflict will not be resolvable in the foreseeable future and is likely to escalate. Some believe that Israel has entered a state of cold civil war, resulting in a significant exodus among educated, secular youth groups. If this continues, this will weaken the liberal secular groups while increasing the power of religious, nationalist, and conservative settler groups. It also carries the seeds of a weakening of Israel's economic standing.

Israel's international isolation

The Madar report tracks international developments surrounding the war on Palestine during 2024, including attempts to dismantle international court rulings and a clear decline in the strength and breadth of the global popular movement against the war and in support of the Palestinian cause. This movement, which began with unprecedented scale and spread to American and European universities, quickly lost momentum and subsided despite the ongoing crimes.

The report states: This decline is primarily due to the fierce campaigns launched by official and unofficial entities, particularly in the United States and Europe, against the movement's focal points. These campaigns include threats to cut funding to universities and research centers that host pro-Palestine student movements, as well as harassment, defamation campaigns, and the personal targeting of activists.

The report concludes that, despite this, the popular, legal, and international movement, its cumulative impact, and the often brutal suppression efforts, will, in the medium term, further intensify Israel's international isolation and push it toward becoming a broader pariah state, which Israel considers an existential threat.

It's worth noting that the annual Madar report, edited by Dr. Hanida Ghanem and featuring a group of experts in Israeli affairs, includes seven main axes: the Israel and Palestinian issue axis, the internal political/party axis, the foreign relations axis, the security/military axis, the economic axis, the social axis, and finally the Palestinians in Israel axis.

The following participated in preparing the chapters of the report for this year (according to the chapter order): Walid Habbas, Antoine Shalhat, Azar Dakour, Fadi Nahhas, Asaad Atrash, Raymonda Mansour, Areen Hawari, and Ahmed Amara.