Tanks and money!!

Nicolas Van Damme

Dutch diplomat, expert on Syrian affairs

Israel's campaign to win hearts and minds in southern Syria puts it at risk of permanently slipping into Israel's sphere of influence.

Israel's occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights in 1967 was a source of hostility toward the Jewish state among Syrians.

Since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, Israel has occupied more Syrian territory in Quneitra Governorate, which until then had been a demilitarized zone between the two countries under a US-brokered ceasefire agreement in 1974.

Israel considers the new government in Damascus extremist and seeks to prevent it from rebuilding a strong army by targeting heavy weapons storage sites, naval assets, and military air bases, destroying much of the equipment in the process.

Meanwhile, it has penetrated communities in southern Syria in an attempt to win hearts and minds and consolidate its control there. This has not gone down well with ordinary Syrians, who view Israel's actions as undermining Syria's territorial integrity and political transition. However, not everyone sees it that way.

Aid diplomacy!

Immediately after the fall of the Assad regime, Israeli forces entered Syrian territory and took control of the demilitarized zone and a number of strategic hills. They established military bases in the Ahmar Hills, the abandoned villages of Kodna, and, most importantly, the summit of Mount Hermon with its military observatory, which overlooks the Syrian capital, just 30 kilometers away.

Local residents were informed that Jabiya Hill near Nawa in the western Daraa countryside would also be controlled by Israel.

Israel has not only used its military might to create a new reality on the ground, but has also resorted to a campaign to win the hearts and minds of the local population. Field sources report that Israeli military teams, mostly composed of Arabic speakers, are active in Quneitra, establishing communication channels with local communities and gathering valuable intelligence. These operations include targeting the mukhtars and mayors of each village or town.

They are required to provide the Israelis with a census that includes lists of the population's names, the number of males and females, the population's age groups, their political and organizational affiliations, and the names of those whom the Assad regime allowed to bear arms, in return for which they promised humanitarian aid.

This fostered competition between chiefs and mayors, with those who cooperated the most receiving the most assistance, often translating into a higher social status for the chief or mayor in question. The Israeli military also infiltrated local communities by offering cash payments ($100 per month per family) and agricultural work in the Golan Heights for a daily wage of 350 shekels ($95), far higher than the average monthly salary of a Syrian government employee.

Local sources have linked several relief organizations operating in southern Syria to Israel. Among these organizations is the Rahma Organization, which provides financial and in-kind support to local residents and is run by a man from Daraa who previously lived in Lebanon. Contrary to expectations, ISIS leaders have sent messages of support and encouragement to the organization to expand its operations.

Disarmament of the South!!

Despite its campaign to win hearts and minds, the Israeli military insists on demilitarizing southern Syria. After receiving intelligence indicating weapons storage at a specific location, specialized units surrounded the site and informed residents via loudspeakers to hand over their weapons. This has been repeated dozens of times, and so far, no clashes have been reported.

Israeli targets also included military headquarters belonging to the former southern Free Syrian Army factions and the reconstituted Syrian Ministry of Defense. Among those targeted was the headquarters of Basil al-Jamlawi (Abu Hayyan al-Hayt), the commander of Ahrar al-Sham in the south and a member of the military committee tasked by the Ministry of Defense with forming the 40th Division. On the night of March 8, Israeli forces entered the town of al-Jamlawi, immediately heading to al-Jamlawi's home and surrounding it. They then seized weapons hidden in the house. They then proceeded to surround the headquarters of Ahrar al-Sham and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in the town (now affiliated with the Ministry of Defense) to confiscate the entire arsenal there, which included light and medium individual weapons and a number of tanks and armored vehicles. These weapons were loaded onto heavy transport vehicles and transported to Israel without a single shot being fired.

Despite the obvious resentment, there is no serious talk of resistance by armed groups in Daraa. The futility of resisting Israeli incursions is clear, as is the new government in Damascus' desire to avoid unnecessarily provoking a broader Israeli military operation in the south.

Lack of trust!!

Despite blatant Israeli interference, the government in Damascus has not completely abandoned the south. It recently appointed Binyan al-Hariri as the general military commander of Daraa. On March 14, he met with leaders of local Free Syrian Army factions. He explained that although the Ministry of Defense had tasked him with establishing the 40th Division, the ministry did not trust him enough to send him heavy weapons, and that all he had received was fuel. He also explained that the 8th Brigade, commanded by Ahmed al-Awda, had not yet agreed to submit to the authority of the Ministry of Defense and was operating as an independent faction. Although the Ministry of Defense was organizing training courses for those wishing to join the new Syrian army, the decision to join remained voluntary. Hariri rejected the desire of some armed groups to start a resistance war against Israel, stating that civilians would ultimately pay the price.

On March 6, the western countryside of Daraa province witnessed a security incident that underscored the tense relationship between Damascus and armed groups in the south. It began with the violent arrest of Adham al-Zeinab at a General Security checkpoint near the town of Jilun. Al-Zeinab was a former prominent leader in the Central Committee, a council of warlords comprising leaders from the anti-ISIS Free Syrian Army. Not content with arresting Zainab, General Security personnel threatened a security campaign targeting the remaining Free Syrian Army factions in the south, accusing them of treason and collusion with Israel.

In response, local armed groups mobilized to secure Zainab's release. Forces stormed the General Security headquarters in the city of Muzayrib, and 20 members of the security forces were arrested in retaliation.

Zainab was eventually released through the mediation of several prominent figures, including Bunyan al-Hariri. This incident prompted Hariri to demand that Damascus not station General Security personnel from Idlib in Daraa and that recruitment be limited to local residents only.

Between a rock and a hard place!!

Israel's strategy of seizing territory in southern Syria has proven tactically effective so far.

The combination of military might and measured generosity may buy it some temporary respite in its quest to consolidate control, but this comes at the cost of fueling resentment among Syrians worried about further regional fragmentation and the risk of partition.

Damascus remains too weak to confront Israel directly, but at the same time, it is too suspicious to fully cooperate with local factions. Without a comprehensive settlement for the south that takes into account its decentralized security structure and local tribal politics and sensitivities, southern Syria risks permanently slipping into Israel's sphere of influence.

About "The Constitution"

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Local sources have linked several relief organizations operating in southern Syria to Israel. Among these organizations is the Rahma Organization, which provides financial and in-kind support to local residents and is run by a man from Daraa who previously lived in Lebanon.