Will the "stigma" of defeat prevent the war on Gaza from ending?

It seems that Hamas will not raise the white flag even if there is no one left in Gaza. Israel, too, will not accept anything less than absolute victory, even if the war exhausts it. The equation for stopping the war, then, is difficult, because the stigma of admitting defeat is out of the question. Consequently, the race to break wills will continue.

The will to resist is based on legitimate rights, religious heritage, and the defense of existence. The will of the occupier is also based on excessive force authorized by the Trump administration, extremist religious texts, and an internal political game whose leaders refuse to leave without a military victory and heavy political costs.

There is no ruler for victory or defeat, but there is victory by goal difference. Israel has succeeded in the past 15 months in annihilating Gaza, cutting off Iran's arms, and weakening and neutralizing the resistance arenas. It has also succeeded in imposing new equations in the region, in terms of security and politics, and is almost transformed, or has already transformed, into a "policeman" or a striking force in the Middle East. The resistance, too, shattered Israel's image on October 7, and was able to withstand its military might, inflicting material and moral losses on it. The resistance, too, cannot be eradicated, for it will remain as long as the occupation remains.

Who scored more goals? Of course, it is impossible to compare a country with the most powerful army, global support, and American authorization, with a resistance with limited capabilities, isolated from any support or assistance. It is also impossible to deny the extent of the heavy losses incurred by the resistance factions, whether in terms of weapons and military capabilities, or in terms of destruction, the number of martyrs, and humanitarian disasters. This means that raising expectations or demands from the resistance (under the pretext of wishes, desires, or defending dignity) to continue the war and endure further genocide seems illogical, immoral, and devoid of any political or humanitarian justification.

I know, very well, that many, including me, will invoke the state of the Arab regime that failed the resistance, and the coming fate of the region that will be decided by Israel and from which no one will escape. Perhaps others will invoke the crisis of Israel and its weaknesses, then the resistance as the only option to curb the project to liquidate the Palestinian cause. All of this is understandable and legitimate, but reality points to other facts that cannot be denied, the most important of which is: The Palestinian cause is no longer a priority, neither in the world nor for most Arab countries. Also, the divided Palestinian reality has become incapable of carrying it. Most importantly, the project of the great Israeli war that Trump is adopting has gone beyond Palestine to the entire region. Accordingly, the question “How do we survive” has become a title for many in the region, and it is a legitimate question in light of a crisis-ridden reality.

How does Hamas think about getting out of this war or stopping it, and does it have the necessary cards (other than 59 hostages) to negotiate? And how does Tel Aviv think about snatching a major victory that will restore its prestige and refute the notion that its prestige and power were broken on October 7? The answers are difficult and require a long discussion, but what is certain is that Hamas, along with the resistance, will continue to fight until its last breath, and will not give up its weapons unless they are stripped of them by force. Likewise, Israel will not stop the war unless it turns the page on the hostages, disarms the resistance, and ends its presence in Gaza. Who will win, then, the will of force or the power of will? I leave the answer to the kind reader.

Meanwhile, Israel's war on Gaza will remain just one link in a long chain. The immediate future will see the West Bank issue resolved, followed by the demarcation of the confrontation with Iran and its remaining proxies in the region. Then, in my estimation, Washington will move to issue Trump's promise, which will be tantamount to a new Balfour Declaration to rearrange the maps of influence and perhaps the geography of the Fertile Crescent. Will this grand project succeed or not? I don't know, but what is certain is that we are facing an upcoming phase teeming with dangers, surprises, and unprecedented transformations.

About the Constitution

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How does Hamas plan to exit or halt this war? Does it still have the necessary bargaining chips (other than 59 hostages) to negotiate? How does Tel Aviv plan to secure a major victory that will restore its prestige and dispel the notion that its prestige and power were shattered on October 7?