Trump-Europe: Towards a New World Order

With the second term of US President Donald Trump, the global order has entered a new era. We have witnessed broad geopolitical changes in Europe and in the objectives of NATO. We may enter an era in which three blocs are established in the world: America, Russia, and China. However, chaos and conflict may spread across the international arena, and every region of the world will adapt unsteadily to the new configuration of power...

No one could have predicted that President Trump would create such a massive rift in the new world order, nor would he have anticipated all these strategic changes in the world, particularly in Europe. To the point that European leaders are beginning to feel a deep sense of existential fear, as they find themselves caught between the anvil of maintaining American favor and the hammer of European strategic and military independence.

Europe woke up to a new reality. Former US President Biden was generously and enthusiastically sending weapons and equipment to Ukraine, without financial compensation. He was reassuring his European allies that NATO was a military umbrella protected by US intelligence and fueled by the latest US military innovations.

The Europeans were thus safe from being taken for granted in their fickleness, for they were neither helpless nor fearful. But with US President Trump, everything changed. The Europeans found themselves with a man sitting on the throne of the White House, holding the reins of the entire executive branch; every day he issues decisions that he signs without regard for the literature of the separation of powers in American history, and amidst the strange and unprecedented silence of the Democrats, who do nothing. They found themselves with a smart businessman, skilled in negotiations, and unafraid of the consequences; he views Europe's paltry contributions to its armaments and defense, as if America were the guardian of its existence among nations. It began with the process of disciplining and taming the Ukrainians, and the unprecedented public altercation between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump in the White House, a live confrontation that was broadcast by international media to the astonishment and panic of many countries, especially European allies. Washington immediately changed its position on the Russian-Ukrainian war, freezing its military aid to Kyiv and intelligence sharing with it. That night did not pass before successive meetings of European leaders began, driven by one wing of the European Union, namely France, after the other wing, namely Germany, was afflicted with difficult internal political problems. The result was an agreement by EU leaders on a plan to rearm Europe, which calls for allocating approximately 800 billion euros, a large portion of which will certainly be allocated to purchasing American weapons. The problem is not the financial resources that European taxpayers will reluctantly provide, but rather related to production capacity. Europe cannot produce weapons on a large scale; its arms factories are small compared to their American, Russian, or Chinese counterparts, and there is a need to build new facilities, develop the supply chain, and manufacture raw materials to keep pace with demand. The Ukrainians will also allow America to exploit Ukraine's rare earths to cover the military expenses of former President Biden's administration for the benefit of the Ukrainians... According to the German Kiel Institute, Washington alone provided about half of the value of military aid to Ukraine from 2022 to 2024. The winner today is President Trump's America par excellence, and the biggest loser is Ukraine and Europe. This equation will continue, because even if Europe spends all the money in the world on its armaments, it cannot do without America, its weapons, its intelligence, its spy satellites, its surveillance systems, its hegemony, and its central and policing role in NATO and in the world.

Another problem troubling European allies is that the world has entered a phase of uncertainty, apprehension, ambiguity, and uncertainty more than ever before. This is because they don't know what President Trump hides in his heart every night and doesn't reveal to them. Each time, he demands more, because he is in a period of strength and disregards diplomatic, economic, and commercial norms and traditions. He sanctifies the principle of "America First" and seeks to change the global order that nations have become accustomed to and that theorists have envisioned for decades. He is making unprecedented and successive decisions. It is sufficient to recall that in 40 days, the US president issued 79 executive orders, equivalent to the total number of decrees issued by Biden during his first year in the White House. All of this falls within the framework of the US Trumpian doctrine based on "reviving the American dream" and the strict immigration policies it follows, as well as other economic policies based on imposing tariffs against countries such as Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. Together, these policies are changing the global order, destabilizing markets and stock exchanges, laying off workers, and affecting the future of the ruling parties in these countries.