A new round of talks to consolidate the truce in the Gaza Strip and efforts to resolve the deadlock over the ceasefire agreement that has been ongoing since early March will begin in Qatar on Monday, without deciding on the option of entering the second phase of the “deal” or extending it, amid accusations from both sides of the crisis of obstructing it.
The tour comes one day before the arrival of Washington’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to the region, in developments that, according to experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, carry greater opportunities to extend the truce and postpone the stalled second phase, especially with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rejection of this step, which he believes will affect his government.
Experts expected that the participation of the American official would enhance the chances of success of this opportunity.
With the end of the first phase of the deal, early this March, with the release of 33 hostages, including 8 dead, and 1,800 Palestinian prisoners, Hamas refused, according to a statement issued by Netanyahu’s office, to accept the “Witkoff Framework,” which extends for about 50 days and includes the release of half of the living and dead hostages on the first day of the continuation of the talks, while Israel agreed to it, according to the statement.
According to the American website Axios, Witkoff is expected to travel to Doha on Tuesday in an attempt to broker a new agreement, and will join mediators from Egypt and Qatar the day after negotiators from Israel and Hamas began indirect talks. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s office announced in a statement issued on Sunday that Israel will send a delegation to Qatar to “advance the negotiations.”
The Trump administration is seeking a deal that would release all remaining prisoners, extend the ceasefire beyond Ramadan and Easter, and possibly lead to a long-term truce that could end the war, according to Axios.
For its part, Hamas confirmed in a statement on Sunday that a delegation from its leadership, headed by the head of the movement’s leadership council, Mohammed Darwish, met in Cairo with the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service, Hassan Rashad. The two sides discussed the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the exchange of prisoners in its various stages “in a positive spirit,” while the movement stressed the need to adhere to all the terms of the agreement and immediately go to the second phase negotiations, open the crossings, and allow relief supplies to enter the Strip without restrictions or conditions.
According to the estimates of the analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, Dr. Saeed Okasha, Witkov’s participation “carries an opportunity to avoid the agreement’s failure,” and he expects that the Doha round will in any case go to extending the first stage, and not to go to a second stage in which Hamas might accept concessions that include releasing some hostages in exchange for Israel releasing some Palestinians sentenced to heavy sentences.
Palestinian political analyst specializing in Hamas affairs, Ibrahim al-Madhoun, says: “The Israeli occupation seems to have been forced to go to the second phase of negotiations, but it is putting up obstacles that are obstructing progress towards them, so there is anticipation for the results of the Doha round,” in which Witkoff will participate.
The "Doha Round" comes after talks in Cairo that included Hamas's approval to form a "community support committee" of independent national figures to manage the Gaza Strip until general elections are held at all levels, national, presidential and legislative, according to a statement by the movement on Sunday.
On Sunday, the Israel Hayom newspaper quoted a political source as saying that the Witkoff plan, which Israel agreed to, “will be the starting point for the talks, with Israel showing flexibility if the talks develop positively.”
Hamas’s approval of the “Support Committee” does not guarantee that it will be implemented, especially since Israel will not agree easily and will set conditions, according to Okasha’s estimates, noting that Cairo and Doha’s efforts will continue in the direction of maintaining the agreement, even if it is decided to implement it in stages or extend it for periods, especially since reaching a final settlement and agreeing on the situation on the day after the war does not seem imminent, given “the current Israeli obstacles and Hamas’s inability to impose anything in light of its current weakness.”
In contrast, Al-Madhoun believes that “the occupation, after the direct dialogue between the United States and Hamas, felt anxious and was subjected to pressures that pushed it to negotiate to complete the second phase,” noting that Hamas, by agreeing to establish the “Community Support Committee,” confirms that it is interested in ending the war, is working to reassure the United States, and is keen to strengthen its relations with Cairo, Doha, and other Arab capitals.
Al-Madhoun expects three possibilities for these negotiations: the first is the failure of the negotiations due to Israel’s lack of readiness to make any new concessions and its forced entrance to the negotiating table, in addition to a second possibility that includes a partial agreement that includes reaching a limited second stage that includes a swap deal in which Israel releases half or a third of the prisoners, without it being a comprehensive deal, in exchange for implementing partial withdrawals from Gaza, facilitating travel, strengthening the humanitarian protocol, increasing the entry of materials into the Strip, and supervising vital projects such as electricity, water, and building hospitals.
The third possibility is to reach a “comprehensive agreement.”
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Gaza Truce: Stalled Agreement Awaits Results of Doha Round