Exchange deal without optimism

After the agreement between Hamas and Israel, under pressure from mediators, to implement the release of the seventh batch of Palestinian prisoners, which was obstructed by the Israeli political level, due to allegations related to the ceremonies held by Hamas during the release of six Israeli detainees last Saturday, all eyes are once again on the Ofer and Ketziot prisons, where the prisoners from Gaza will return to the Strip, in addition to a number of those who will be deported to move from Gaza later to the country or countries that will host them. The prisoners from the West Bank will also be released, including the prisoners from Jerusalem, while Israel will receive in return the bodies of four detainees held by the resistance. Once they are received by the International Red Cross and under the supervision of the Egyptian side, the identification processes will begin, heralding the continuation of the process of releasing the Palestinian prisoners in the largest batch, the chapters of which may be completed today, Thursday, if things go as they should.

Despite the exchanges, optimism remains low regarding the start of the second phase negotiations, as there is a prevailing impression that the agreement will continue beyond Saturday, amidst both Israeli and American desires to release more hostages, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. However, Israel has not yet taken any decision to send its negotiating delegation to Cairo or Doha, and even if that happens, estimates are that the Israeli delegation will be without a mandate to discuss the second phase, because Netanyahu is interested in not advancing to this phase, which means ending the war completely and withdrawing the Israeli army from the Philadelphi corridor.

Netanyahu succeeded in convincing Minister Smotrich to remain in the Israeli government in exchange for not withdrawing the army, in order to preserve his political interest, as Smotrich is considered an important weight for the continuation of the right-wing coalition, and the search for middle formulas with the help of mediators every time problems occur, which may endure for the coming weeks and focus on the release of prisoners, but despite the hints of the necessity of reaching the second stage of negotiations, they may not succeed in achieving the demands and conditions of the agreement, and accordingly Israel may return to war again, in an effort to eliminate the Hamas movement and its presence in the Gaza Strip, after obtaining approval to extend the first stage, which Hamas may give it but on its terms, and from here the drums of war may beat at any turn in which there is a sense of a breach of the agreement.

The political situation in Israel, especially the upcoming turning points such as the vote on the budget and the conscription law, are issues that worry Netanyahu, and hence it is not unlikely that he will resort repeatedly to manipulation, falsification and issuing resonant statements, to ensure that his government does not collapse. In fact, the only party that supports Netanyahu in his orientations is the American side, which is well aware that Netanyahu’s excuses and arguments are endless, but it knows that its responsibility as the most powerful country in the world is to preserve Israel and defend it in all forums, and even support it with weapons and ammunition, as Trump did recently in order to resume the aggression, and there is no better evidence of this than Trump’s recent statement that Israel is the one who decides on a ceasefire.