Dr. Rafat Sayed Ahmed: Stopping the Israeli-American ambitions in Gaza is through activating the Egyptian initiative for reconstruction without displacement

Dr. Mukhaimer Abu Saada: The steadfastness of the ceasefire is due to the efforts of the mediators and the pressure of the Israeli street to continue the exchange deal

Dr. Ali Al-Awar: The Israeli public is the one who holds the initiative now.. and an Israeli decision to stop the war will be officially announced within days

Abdul Nasser Abu Aoun: Releasing prisoners, especially those sentenced to life imprisonment, has a humanitarian and struggle dimension and enhances the feeling of victory among Palestinians

Ismat Mansour: The truce holds and the prisoners are regularly released despite the obstacles due to the existence of a common interest and a clear agreement between the parties

Adel Shedid: The second phase of the ceasefire agreement includes major political entitlements and is not limited to relief aspects or the release of prisoners

The atmosphere of tension and anticipation that prevailed after Hamas announced the suspension of the exchange deal in the middle of last week, in protest against the occupation state’s failure to abide by the terms of the agreement, specifically not allowing relief aid in the form of mobile homes, tents, cranes and large machinery, subsided with the completion of the exchange of the sixth batch of the first phase, following intensive intervention by the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, coinciding with the movements of the Israeli street to pressure the far-right government led by Benjamin Netanyahu to proceed with the implementation of the deal to restore their sons who have been detained in the Gaza Strip for more than sixteen months.

Hamas' decision to freeze the deal a few days ago provoked US President Donald Trump, who threatened hell if Hamas did not release all the prisoners at once. Israel responded with threats and intimidation, especially since Netanyahu, who was forced to resort to the exchange option after failing to recover his prisoners by excessive force, was not pleased with the spectacle accompanying the exchange operations, whether in the Gaza Strip, with the large presence of resistance fighters, or in Ramallah, where the prisoners were received massively after many years in the depths of prisons, in addition to the state of controversy within Israeli society about the war and its achieved goals.

Writers and analysts who spoke to "I" said that the ceasefire is holding thanks to the efforts of mediators and pressure from the Israeli street to continue with the exchange deal, but they believe that the second phase will be more complicated because it includes major political entitlements and is not limited to relief aspects or the release of prisoners. They explained that stopping Israeli-American ambitions in Gaza is done by activating the Egyptian initiative for reconstruction without displacement.

The exchange deal will be completed in at least its first and second stages.

Dr. Rifat Sayed Ahmed, the Egyptian strategic expert and nationalist thinker, said that the implications of the truce’s steadfastness lie first in the internal Israeli pressure from the opposition and from the prisoners’ families on the current government, so that the deal is completed at least in its two parts or its first and second stages, and then they move towards sabotage and destruction, as Netanyahu and Trump have predicted.

He pointed out that the deal will be done, and the prisoners, whether alive or dead, will be released, as well as the Palestinian prisoners in return.

Ahmed stressed that the Israeli and American greed in the Gaza Strip will not stop, but will continue, because there is a major goal hidden since the beginning of the war, which is to establish a two-Sea canal from Eilat to the Mediterranean Sea via northern Gaza, adding: This is an Israeli and American goal to continue a line linking India to the northern Mediterranean to transport goods, gas and oil, and it is a strategic line that America aspires to.

He pointed out that there is a demand that the Israeli north be secured, as well as the Israeli south, by the northern Gaza Strip, and this will require major security arrangements between the Israelis.

He stressed that stopping these historical ambitions, and the greed for Gaza gas, and other things, would be through activating the Egyptian initiative for reconstruction without displacement, which is the smart initiative launched by the Egyptian administration in cooperation with some Arab countries, most notably the Gulf countries.

The next Arab summit will be the "Gaza Summit"

Ahmed said, "This initiative will be presented at the upcoming Arab summit, which will be the 'Gaza Summit', scheduled for November 27. This agreement is likely to succeed in foiling the Israeli-American plan to displace the people of Gaza and then colonize it under the cover of reconstruction."

He explained that Trump said "a true word intended to be false", and Egypt understood that, so it took two axes: the first, postponing the visit of the Egyptian president so that he would not be humiliated in Gaza, and the second, activating the reconstruction card without displacement, because Egypt is convinced that this is possible. For example, Japan was destroyed in World War II, and so was Germany, the Japanese and Germans remained in their countries, and reconstruction was carried out, and they became among the largest and most important countries in the world, and what is important is sincerity of intention.

“We have the money, and it is Arab money, but the American-Israeli goal is to steal this money and colonize Gaza under the pretext of reconstruction with Arab money. So, we can lead this project ourselves, and the Arab leaders must realize that. Egypt has understood the danger to some extent, as the issue is no longer just occupation, but the danger has become to thrones, armies, and the foundations of government,” Ahmed added.

The Egyptian expert believes that the Arab countries, especially Egypt, understood that the main goal is thrones and armies, and that is why they presented this card, and its chances of success are there. But there is a more important variable, which is that the resistance and the people of Gaza will remain, and this is what Trump did not take into account. What is important is that Arab funds reach the reconstruction of Gaza, and the upcoming Arab summit represents a golden opportunity through which this card can be achieved, so that Gaza and its people remain, with its reconstruction anew.

Trump's threats are not the reason for the exchange process to continue

For his part, Dr. Mukhaimer Abu Saada, Professor of Political Science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza, said that the steadfastness of the ceasefire agreement until now is primarily due to two issues:

The first issue is the great and tremendous efforts being made by the mediators, especially Egypt and Qatar, to continue the ceasefire agreement and ensure its steadfastness.

He said: "As you know, US President Trump stated several days ago that if the Israeli hostages were not released by 12 noon on Saturday, hell would break loose in Gaza and the region.

He added: "I do not believe that Trump's statement is what led to the continuation of the prisoner exchange process, but rather I believe that the efforts made by Egypt and Qatar are the main reason behind it.

The second issue, according to Abu Saada, is that Netanyahu and the Israeli cabinet left the door ajar, as they did not fully abide by Trump’s statements, but rather said that if Hamas adhered to the ceasefire agreement and released three Israeli hostages, Israel would in turn abide by the ceasefire. This is due to pressure from the Israeli street, as the Israelis, especially the families of the hostages, began to move strongly and effectively, especially after the release of three hostages last week, who showed signs of weakness, emaciation and exhaustion.

He pointed out that there is great fear among the families of the hostages that their continued detention by the resistance may lead to their death or their non-return alive. Accordingly, these two reasons - the role of the mediators (Egypt and Qatar) and pressure from the Israeli street - are what led to the ceasefire agreement remaining in place, despite the incitement of extremists in Israel, such as Smotrich, Ben-Gvir and others, to not abide by it.

Netanyahu has been under pressure from mediators and families of detainees.

Abu Saada believes that these people consider Trump’s statements an opportunity that must be seized to return to war and displace the Palestinians. He added: However, it seems that Netanyahu was subjected to pressure from mediators and the families of the hostages, but it is still unknown whether the ceasefire agreement will hold until the second stage, or whether there is actually a second and third stage of the agreement. So, we will have to wait and see what happens in the sixth week of the first stage.

As for the Egyptian reconstruction plan, Abu Saada confirmed that it came in response to US President Trump’s plans that aim to displace the residents of Gaza and control it, then rebuild it and transform it, as he described it, into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”

He explained that Egypt, as the most concerned about the future of the Palestinian people and the Palestinian cause, takes this position based on a long history of support. Since the Nakba of 1948, Egypt has stood by the Palestinians and fought several wars for the Palestinian cause, and therefore its current position is not new, but rather an extension of its historical positions.

Displacement poses a threat to Egyptian national security

He added: "Egypt realizes that the displacement project will pose a threat to Egyptian national security, and will contribute to the dispersion of the Palestinian cause, and perhaps its complete liquidation. Therefore, Egypt is working on a plan to rebuild and build Gaza while preserving the presence of the Palestinian people on their land, and preventing their displacement."

Abu Saada confirmed that this plan will be adopted at the Arab Summit scheduled to be held at the end of this month, and then it will be presented to the United States as a project that enjoys broad Arab support.

He said: "This plan currently enjoys great support from Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other Arab countries, and when the Arab Summit is held, there will be an Arab rally around it to confront Trump's plans and the displacement.

73 Israeli prisoners held by Hamas and the resistance

In turn, Dr. Ali Al-Awar, a specialist in regional and international conflicts, said that the Israeli public is leading this stage, given the presence of 76 Israeli prisoners, noting that with the release of three prisoners on Saturday, 73 prisoners remain with Hamas and the resistance.

He added: "The Israeli public is the one who holds the initiative now, and it is the one who decides the nature of the next stage, given that Netanyahu bears full responsibility for the life of every Israeli prisoner, especially after it became clear that some prisoners are still alive, despite previous allegations that they were killed as a result of Israeli bombing."

Al-Awar continued: We are facing a new phase entitled "Israeli prisoners", where the Israeli public has begun to greatly influence the political and security decision inside Israel. Also, the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the "Netzarim" axis, and the withdrawal of the "Givati" Brigade from the northern Gaza Strip, reflect the existence of an Israeli decision to end the war, and there are only days left to officially announce this.

The truce holds despite Israeli violations

He pointed out that the truce is still holding despite the Israeli violations, noting that there are internal and external factors that contributed to its steadfastness, including the sixth batch of the prisoner exchange deal, which included 36 prisoners sentenced to life, in addition to 330 prisoners from the Gaza Strip, which makes it an important deal entitled "Prisoners sentenced to life breathe freedom."

Al-Awar explained that the truce held despite the fiery statements of a number of Israeli leaders, such as Israel Katz, Bezalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Benjamin Netanyahu, who adopted the positions of US President Donald Trump, who set 12 noon as the deadline for the return of all prisoners.

He pointed out that the Israelis alone read the Palestinian scene well, and realized that Hamas still exists in the Gaza Strip, and that returning to war would cost Israel a heavy price, both on the military level and in the number of civilian casualties.

He also stressed that the Israeli public has begun to realize that Trump is just a show president, making statements far from reality and far from the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which has made him unable to provide real solutions to the conflict.

In another context, Al-Awar pointed out that Egypt's public rejection of the displacement plan proposed by Trump is evident in the position of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who refrained from visiting the United States to meet Trump, which means the complete failure of this project.

An alternative Egyptian reconstruction plan to displacement

He also revealed that Egypt had presented an alternative plan for displacement, which included returning to Gaza and starting reconstruction immediately, which contributed to officially announcing the death of Trump's project.

He explained that 73 Israeli prisoners are still held by Hamas, and that Netanyahu cannot bear the legal and moral responsibility for their continued detention, which made 70% of the Israeli public demand the full implementation of the deal and moving forward with its second phase.

Al-Awar concluded his speech by stressing that these developments reflect the ability of the Israeli public to influence security and political decisions in Israel, which may lead to the full implementation of the agreement and the continuation of the truce between Hamas and Israel.

Success of regional and international efforts to prevent the explosion

For his part, journalist Abdel Nasser Abu Aoun stressed that the steadfastness and continuation of the truce in the Gaza Strip and the continued release of batches of Palestinian prisoners, especially those with life sentences, carry deep political and national implications.

He said: "The steadfastness to the ceasefire strongly reflects the success of regional and international diplomatic efforts in preventing the situation from exploding again, and it is an indication that there is a great political will seeking to maintain relative stability despite the challenges ahead.

Abu Aoun added: “As for the release of batches of prisoners, especially those with high sentences, it carries a struggle and humanitarian dimension, as it enhances the feeling of victory among the Palestinians, and confirms that the prisoners’ issues will remain present in any political or field negotiations.

He pointed out that the release of those sentenced to life in prison in particular indicates changes in the balance of negotiations, as some of the red lines that Israel had previously imposed are now being reduced under great political pressure.

Reconstruction without compromising Palestinian demographics

Abu Aoun explained that, at the same time, the Egyptian plan for reconstruction without displacing the residents of Gaza comes as a confirmation of the Arab position supporting Palestinian rights.

He believes that the reconstruction project without affecting the Palestinian demographics is a clear rejection of any attempts to impose a new reality of forced displacement or geographical change in the Strip, which is something that strengthens the steadfastness of the people and gives them hope of rebuilding what was destroyed by the aggression with Arab and regional coordination.

Abu Aoun stressed at the end of his statement that these developments show that Gaza is not alone, and that there is an ongoing political movement that seeks to preserve its national constants, at a time when the various parties are trying to impose their visions on the regional scene.

The second phase of the agreement will be more complicated.

Journalist and analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, Ismat Mansour, believes that the first phase of the agreement is nearing its end, while the parties are preparing to move to the second phase, which will be more complicated due to its political dimensions.

Mansour explained that the truce has held up so far and the prisoners are being released regularly despite the obstacles, due to a common interest and clear agreement between the parties, as the process depends on the exchange of prisoners and aid, which makes it relatively faster. However, the second phase will be more difficult, given the overlap of sensitive political issues, including the issue of governance in Gaza, the role of the Israeli army, and the future of the war, which will have repercussions on Netanyahu’s government and his political coalition, in addition to the situation in Gaza and reconstruction.

Mansour pointed out that the Egyptian reconstruction plan is directly linked to identifying the parties responsible for its implementation and financing, asking: "Who will supervise the reconstruction? Will it be financed in the presence of Hamas? And what is the fate of Hamas in this equation?" He stressed that the reconstruction plan essentially means a political plan for Gaza, which requires understandings with the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.

Combined Palestinian, Arab and international efforts

He added: "Egypt finds itself forced to search for answers to these questions and reach agreements between the Palestinian parties in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, stressing the need for the Authority and Hamas to commit to making real efforts to overcome obstacles and prepare the conditions for a smooth transition to the second phase.

Mansour warned that any stumbling block at this stage could give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an excuse to disrupt the agreement, noting that everyone is currently seeking to abort the "Trump deal" that aims to displace the people of Gaza.

Mansour stressed that confronting these plans requires concerted Palestinian, Arab and international efforts to remove obstacles and block any attempts to thwart the agreement.

Moving to the second phase of the agreement will not be easy.

As for the specialist in Israeli affairs, Adel Shadid, he confirmed in turn that the steadfastness of the truce and the continued release of batches of prisoners reflects a common interest for all the resistance factions, headed by the Hamas movement, as well as for the occupation government and Israeli society, to make this stage at least successful.

Shadid explained that the Palestinian factions seek to complete all stages until reaching a complete military withdrawal and a final ceasefire.

He also pointed out that the mediators are serious about making the truce a success, despite the crisis it faced last week, especially after the controversial statements by US President Donald Trump, which raised fears of an escalation that threatens the entire region.

Despite the success of the implementation of the sixth batch of prisoner releases, Shadid warned that moving to the second phase of the agreement will not be easy, pointing to the possibility of the agreement collapsing in light of two main factors: first, the opposition of the hardline right wing within the Israeli government even to the first phase, and second, that the second phase includes major political entitlements, not limited to relief aspects or the release of prisoners or a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces, but rather includes a complete withdrawal and a final ceasefire, which makes it more complicated.