Experts believe the truces in Gaza and Lebanon are likely to hold for now, though their durability was tested to the limit over the weekend, because all sides want to avoid full-scale fighting for at least a few weeks.

In southern Lebanon, Israeli forces remained in place after a Sunday deadline for their withdrawal passed, amid Israeli allegations that Hezbollah had violated its pledge to leave the area. In Gaza, confusion over when Hamas would release Israeli soldier Arbel Yehud has prompted Israel to delay the agreed-upon return of displaced Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza.

The crisis was quickly resolved, with Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari announcing on Sunday that Hamas would hand over three Israeli hostages before next Friday, including Arbel Yehuda. He wrote on his X account: “As part of the ongoing efforts led by mediators, an understanding was reached between the two parties that Hamas would hand over hostage Arbel Yehuda and two other hostages before next Friday.”

He added: "Hamas will also hand over three additional hostages on Saturday, in addition to providing information on the number of hostages who will be released as part of the first phase of the agreement."

But even as each side accuses the other of reneging on its deals, analysts say, all sides have a desire to maintain the truce, temporarily overlooking the other's transgressions.

Although Hezbollah is angry with Israel for keeping its forces in southern Lebanon, “it does not want to risk a devastating Israeli attack if it renews its rocket attacks on Israeli cities. Hamas also wants to retain power in Gaza and risks losing it if war resumes. Israel needs to maintain the current arrangement in Gaza long enough to free at least two dozen more hostages. Israeli leaders also seemed eager to appease President Trump, who campaigned on a promise to preserve peace in the Middle East,” according to the New York Times.

As for Lebanon, the White House announced that the truce there would be extended until February 18, although there was no immediate comment from Israel or Hezbollah. The Lebanese prime minister’s office confirmed the extension.

“They will succeed in the next few weeks — and beyond that is just guesswork, since these are agreements that depend on each side giving the other a certain amount of discretion and room to maneuver,” Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator in Middle East peace talks, was quoted as saying by the New York Times.

This room for maneuver ultimately allowed both truces (in Lebanon and Gaza) to hold over the weekend, even as Israeli occupation forces shot and killed civilians in Lebanon and Gaza who were trying to return to areas still under Israeli control.

The Lebanese Health Ministry said 22 people were killed by Israeli fire in southern Lebanon, while the Palestinian Wafa news agency said one person was killed in Gaza as large crowds gathered in both places near Israeli forces, demanding to return to their homes.

But by Monday morning, the confrontation in Gaza appeared to have subsided. In Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement praising residents trying to return and calling on foreign powers to force Israel to withdraw. But Hezbollah did not resume firing rockets.

Analysts say Hezbollah is unlikely to risk further losses while its leadership is eliminated and its patron, Iran, is weakened. The group’s main arms supply route, via Syria, was shut down in December when rebels ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a Hezbollah ally.

“Hezbollah’s leaders still have some rockets, they still have some guns, they can do something,” Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanese analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a foreign affairs think tank and one of the most important faces of the Israel lobby in the US capital, told the New York Times. “But it would be suicidal if they did that, because they know that any kind of attack by Hezbollah in Israel means that Israel will seize the opportunity to come back in full force and annihilate what’s left of them.”

Hezbollah may also be wary of losing support among its Shiite base, especially in next year’s parliamentary elections, Ghaddar said. Lebanon’s Shiite community paid the heaviest price for Hezbollah’s decision to go to war with Israel in October 2023 in solidarity with its ally Hamas. Shiite villages and towns in southern Lebanon bore the brunt of Israel’s air campaign and subsequent ground invasion.

With Hezbollah less likely to resume fighting, the Gaza ceasefire is the more fragile of the two, experts say. But it is not expected to face its biggest stress test until early March, when Hamas and Israel must decide whether to extend the agreement beyond the initial 42-day truce.

For now, Israel has indicated it wants to maintain the ceasefire to support a flow of hostage releases. But an extension would require both sides to agree to a permanent end to the war — a bridge that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has seemed unwilling to cross. Netanyahu’s coalition government relies on far-right lawmakers seeking permanent Israeli control of Gaza, and his administration could collapse if the war ends with Hamas still in power.

The terms of the agreement allow for some flexibility. The truce could continue beyond the 42-day mark as long as the two sides negotiate whether the arrangement should be made permanent.

But various US media outlets have quoted Israeli officials as saying that they will not remain stuck in endless, pointless negotiations, especially if Hamas stops releasing the hostages. Hamas is unlikely to continue releasing the hostages, its main bargaining chip, without an Israeli promise to permanently cease hostilities.

On this point, the New York Times quotes Mukhaimer Abu Saada, a Palestinian political scientist from Gaza: “Hamas wants a cease-fire but not at any price. They want a cease-fire that ends the war.”

Much may depend on President Trump’s willingness to persuade Netanyahu to reach a more permanent truce. Trump’s private messages to the Israeli prime minister were crucial in shaping the initial phase, but it remains to be seen whether the US president will maintain that position a few weeks from now.

“If Netanyahu succeeds in convincing Trump of the need to renew the war, then the war will probably be renewed,” Abu Saada said. “If Trump keeps his promise that he doesn’t want any wars and wants more peace – whether in Gaza, Ukraine or around the world – that’s a different matter.”